Our live Investing Matters Podcast Special which took place at the Master Investor Show discussing 'How undervalued is the UK stock market?', has just been released. Listen here.
07.44 - just before we leave this I have two observations:
In case it becomes important in the future, the field in which I work also has processes of certification and accreditation. Accreditation is by far the higher hurdle. Secondly, I would like to thank Bella for the detective work, especially in the absence of comms from our company(!) VGLA
Well, I invested in Avacta on the strength of affimers. I wish us all success with AVA6k and certainly hope we can help cancer sufferers, however, although I understand the principles there the biochemistry of FAP is for others. Nevertheless, I feel very comfortable with affimers and the almost 'limitless' applications. In addition, one of our daughters has Axial spondyloarthritis and any progress to deal with that incurable condition will involve something like the Affyxell initiative. As ever, VGLA
07.25 - of course that RNS and Terry's helpful insight into the budget begs the question ' which UK-based pharmaceutical company which has developed an innovative drug delivery technology to improve the clinical performance of cancer treatments for solid tumours through the local delivery of chemotherapy.' is out there with a MCap below £10million? Hmmm...VGLA
07.25 - part of the Amc RNS: 'The Company entered into a heads of terms agreement ("HOT") to acquire a UK based candidate in the healthcare sector (the "Target") on 25 January 2024. The Target is a UK-based pharmaceutical company which has developed an innovative drug delivery technology to improve the clinical performance of cancer treatments for solid tumours through the local delivery of chemotherapy.
Pursuant to the HOT, Amur would acquire the entire issued share capital of the Target in return for the issue of new ordinary shares in Amur (the "Consideration Shares").'
07.25 - that is avery specific RNS and the date in Jan does fit our recent CR situation. If it is us then I can't see a T/O at this time realising much of our potential. It is, though, a lesson about T/Os as any now will undervalue Avacta - it is a constant danger (unless you belong to the 10% brigade). Potential 'hostile' T/O companies continually run risk/reward exercises on 'targets' and, as Avacta derisks, the negative side is making us an increasingly attractive target to others. The potential 'cavalry' would be a bidding war. Never an easy ride here! VGLA
I share everyone’s frustration and respect all the views and reservations regarding our bod. This post is just a different way of looking at the evidence in the RNS. I have applied a process of isolating the facts that do not make sense and subjecting them to a simple test by asking ‘but why’. It takes us on an entertaining (even if totally wrong) journey:
Avacta was already fully funded until we could have expected extra income in a few months, yet, there has been a CR – but why?
That CR could have been at a much higher SP and yet it is now- but why?
The CR has been at a ridiculous discount – but why?
The prospects for AVA6K have been redescribed in less glowing terms than before – but why?
I could go on (!), however, these will help me make my point:
So, we have a CR, out of the blue, with a steep discount and a change in language. I believe that the elephant in this particular room is deliberately well-hidden in the RNS - ‘and, potentially, a NASDAQ dual-listing’
Where will the dose expansion study be? America
Where is the FDA? America
Which country in the World has the greatest repository of wealth to support Avacta progress? America
Which country is likely to require the largest volume of treatments supported by Avacta tech? America
The biggest clue here is that the entire CR feels like a fire sale – a new, sudden imperative in the Avacta ‘normal pace’ of research. We could have easily gone on without this CR in the normal course of events but, suddenly, there has appeared ‘urgency’. It seems to me that the only element in the Avacta mix capable of generating this urgency is a NASDAQ listing.
So, here is my contention regarding recent events (almost by definition it will be mostly wrong[!]}:
Avacta was close to a first money generating deal but parties recently walked away from it. The NASDAQ listing process is almost complete. As we know, there are demanding requirements to fulfil eligibility and the listing is ‘expensive’.
So, logic takes us to:
Money is urgently required. It must be raised (hence the 50p price).The listing process must remain secret. A small CR just to fund the listing would not make sense so a larger one has two added attractions: to obfuscate the real reason for the CR and the bonus of extra resources. So, other evidence: ‘The majority of the net proceeds raised….’ (What about the minority?); ‘to expore all available pathways….and potentially a NASDAQ dual-listing; ‘AVA6000has the potential to compete effectively against other approaches….'
If you are trying to list a UK based company on an American exchange you cannot say ‘WE have a product pipeline which is capable of undermining many of your American efforts’. It all becomes as much an exercise in international diplomacy as a financial/structural process.
Well, that is my abbreviated ‘alternative’ rambling (brought on by reading my ISA balance [through very dark sunglasse
19.40: Mr Martini - lovely to see your post. Yes, a long journey. You mentioned Shawshank so perhaps we can all be uplifted, surely (shawly) by:
https://youtu.be/Bjqmg_7J53s?si=hoiQE_-OYB7dqgV9
As ever, VGLA
27th; 20:49 - always good posting - thank you. This one looking close to Agent B territory which should fire up Timster. Nevertheless, I always look forward to Agent B's posts, from which ever bunker or safe house around the world (or beyond). VGLA
09.14 - ' Aim' attracts many sorts of posters. This one is 'new/recycled'. The opinions are all known to all of us; however, the spin, as with all trolls, is the 'reinterpretation'. Some want to 'aim' to manipulate the market for entry/exit reasons. Some have darker agendas sponsored by the pizza man and others. Avacta - I am here and relieved that I am not driven by the motivations of this poster. Avacta is chasing positivity and opportunities, this poster (and related others) are driven by greed and manipulation. VGLA
Still reading all posts including the life-wasting troll 'contributions'. There does seem to be a US dimension emerging - where might that take us(?) Latest RNS reads well, so, all best to fellow LTHs - long journey but we seem closer to incredible treatments across a very wide range of illnesses. Once affimers take centre stage.............VGLA
License deals might well make sense at this stage. Buyout now will currently, imo, massively undervalue our company - it is too early (from our perspective). However, big companies run risk/reward equations all the time and, presumably, they will not want to pay the maximum price. I feel that the greatest financial risk here to LTHs is a successful hostile takeover at this stage. I suppose that 'the Cavalry' could be a bidding war. No doubt, time will tell. In the meantime, VGLA.