Berenberg’s comments on BHP can largely be replicated on Centamin25 Aug 2023 06:48
Berenberg: BHP between a rock and a hard place
BHP (BHP) is between ‘a rock and a hard place’ of inflationary costs and the need to invest more capital, says Berenberg.
Analyst Richard Hatch retained his ‘hold’ recommendation and reduced the target price from £24 to £22 on the Citywire Elite Company, which fell 1.6%, or 36.5p, to £21.94 on Thursday.
First-half results ‘missed market expectations due to a lower dividend’ as a result of cost pressure and weaker prices and delivered disappointing cost and capex guidance, explained Hatch.
He said it is ‘not a major surprise that capex will be elevated over the coming years.’
‘This seems to be a constant negative theme in the sector – the last time that we saw this was following Covid when decarbonisation spend started to creep in and surprise the market negatively, and the catch-up capex started to work its way back following a period of under-investment due to weak prices from 2013-16,’ said Hatch.
He argued that mining was a cyclical sector and ‘we are now going through a period where costs are elevated due to inflation and higher energy input costs, while capex is rising because of the need to build more supply for longer-term demand growth, while prices are weak because the demand growth is not yet pulling through and we are relying on an underperforming China to drive demand and this does not yet seem to be forthcoming’.
Unfortunately for shareholders, Hatch said ‘this will likely keep a lid on the shares’.