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Boris needs to tread carefully ! a snap December General Election and a possible Rainbow Alliance / Coalition formed between the SNP, Labour and Liberal Dems

(with Farage holding the balance of power)

coud turn out to be the Conservative's worst nightmare.

Looks an interesting read but it's trapped behind a paywall. Can you paste the article please?
Regards

Hear, Hear UTT, good points well made.....

George Culmer said we had £1.5b unspent provision at end Q3. He also said claims are within expectations so I think if there isn't a late surge of valid claims we might not need much more provision, maybe a couple of hundred million...?

PPI paid in September was £309m.....

Gate - I think like you, Horta and his team have done a decent job on Lloy. Some people think he handled ppi badly which unleashed more claims than you could ever imagine but I think he was pressured into it by HMG to support their efforts to keep the economy afloat. All in all I'm happy with him and the bod. I think Hortas biggest test is yet to come though because profit after tax will keep on rising for the next few years as ppi waves goodbye and I see it topping out at about £6.5b in 2020 but I can't see what is going to drive a profits increases after then? Cost cutting and digitisation will help of course but Lloy needs a big pick up in mortgage activity, which I can't see happening, or it will need to buy up businesses in other areas to diversify in order to keep those profits rising. Will Horta be able to keep profits rising? Somehow I think he will....

I don't think we have opposing views James, we are closer than it might appear. I think they (bankers) are clever people but I don't equate being clever with being wise. Clever people are not immune from making stupid decisions which investors will hopefully see though and prevent.....
Regards
RM

34Cannot agree with AHO using the snapshot Balance sheet method to hide labour costs in the profit and loss.This requires manipulation as I am sure you all know of the source and application of funds and is clearly beyond any of our Directors intellect.

Hi James,
A little harsh, methinks. Don't underestimate these guys, you don't get the top jobs if you are a knob-naw. Quite the reverse, they are very clever, which is what you would want of your managers, but it can become a problem if they are cleverer than the investors who are supposed to hold them to account.

Hi gate13boy,
Bearing in mind my reply to Freya about the pros and cons of buy-backs, i think if there is no better use for the money, and Lloy results presentation suggested there was nothing on the horizon, then Lloy should give a decent Divi, which they do, keep something back just in case, and plough as much then as possible into the buy-back. I think the worst thing would be a half heated buy-back - if you are going to do it then go for it but have an eye to the SP. No point in going for it if you push up the share price by doing so....
Regards
RM

Hi Freya, where do I stand on buybacks, that's a good question? I think what's happened is a bit of a con, Horta is hiding labour costs by putting them through Lloy balance sheet instead of P&L. That allows him to make claims about being the best in class on cost per unit? That said, I don't know what the exchange rate was awhen the incentive plan was born and for all I know he might now be buying back the incentive shares at a profit - who knows?

I do think Lloy has got too many shares in issue and you cannot just keep issuing shares willy nilly and diluting the EPS, we have to move to recognising the incentive plan through the P&L, which will reduce profit after tax but wouldn't reduce Lloy ability to buy back at a profit? All that said, Lloy need to be careful because buybacks can send a message to the market that we have no better use for the money, and for a bank that desperately needs to expand/diversify that can be pretty damning.....
Regards
RM

Freya - that's correct and I'm sure Horta realises that it's in his interests to get the SP moving up. Like most people who hold shares in Lloy and take an interest in them I just wonder why they are so low? I can imagine that barring anothr ppi provision in Q3, which I think is unlikely, we will be looking at another £1.4b profit after tax for the quarter and maybe £5b for the year 2018? Decent enough Divi, well covered, what's holding it back?? Not sure I buy Brexit although wouldn't argue it hasn't depressed the SP, but I tend to look at the housing market as a major factor with mortgage approvals going down each month....
Regards
RM

Yes, but I tune in daily though 😊

Anyone else noticed that AHO holding in Lloy has jumped from 15m to 25m shares? Don't think he bought them.....