Member Info for RalphB1

Yes, very cheap now. They are right to assert a valuation upside that is multiples of the current trading range.

Release today:

"Polarean has potential upside many times its current market capitalisation, we calculate, based on observable deal metrics and our NPV analysis, while the valuation is so low, it could attract take-over interest, we believe"

"Based on observable deal metrics we calculate an implied equity valuation for Polarean of up to US$350m/£260m, many times the current £15m market capitalisation. Our NPV analysis indicates a valuation range of US$114m-US$233m, backing up the multi-market capitalisation upside suggested by deal revenue multiples and which excludes the value of any expansion of sales to the rest of the world."

A seller has been closed fwiw and fundamentally this is disconnected. Those buying (if liquidity permits) well do well from here. ATB, R1.

Respected firm start 40 page initiation note today. Very bullish and a snippet here:

Capital Metals plc (“CMET”) is an AIM-listed mineral sands explorer and developer which owns the Taprobane Minerals Project in Sri Lanka. CMET’s flagship asset offers peer-leading grades, along with low mining costs, simple metallurgy and significant upside to the current Mineral Resource Estimate (“MRE”). A May 2022 Preliminary Economic Assessment (“PEA”) serves as a base case with optimisation potential identified by CMET. A strategic investment of US$2m from Ambeon Capital group (“Ambeon”), with the option for it and its nominated investors (“the Investors”) to invest a further US$2m, should fund CMET beyond a Final Investment Decision (“FID”) on Taprobane. Ambeon has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (“MoU”) to

invest US$10m into, and arrange US$10m in corporate debt for, CMET’s Sri Lankan subsidiary, Redgate Lanka (Pvt) Limited (“Redgate”). With a credible local partner and a newly elected Government keen to promote investment in Sri Lanka, we believe CMET now has an opportunity to rapidly advance Taprobane, unlocking the considerable value of the asset. As detailed further below, we derive a target valuation for CMET of GBp16.5/sh, 500% above the current share price.

Taprobane Minerals Project – world-class grade with growth potential -

Taprobane hosts a 2016 resource of 17.2Mt grading 17.6% THM, the highest among global titanium dioxide feedstock peers. A 2022 PEA outlined a phased ramp-up, which CMET has modified to reduce upfront capital needs. The plan is to initially sell Heavy Mineral Concentrate (“HMC”), followed by in-country separation through the development of a mineral separation plant (“MSP”), to be funded by cash flow (but

potentially accelerated by additional capital). Simple dry-mining methods present low technical risk, with continuous rehabilitation of mined voids. The initial mining area supports multiple years of production, but exploration upside remains significant. With historic drilling averaging just 1.6m depth, CMET believes deeper,

mineralised horizons could be found across the broader mineral sands district.

Any of you also in the discounter THE WORKS (WRKS)? The broker recently upgraded their forecasts saying 600% upside. Some of their comments added to the page there.

Indeed, very cheap now. These are some of the comments by the analysts at Singer:

The group’s wide-ranging strategic and operational focus is starting to deliver results, with evidence being seen in Q4 in sales, margin and cost efficiencies. This leads to guidance being upgraded, and we have raised FY25/FY26 EPS forecasts 12%/30% now with a 25% CAGR. Our target price is raised 96% as we roll forward a year and lift the target multiple to 2.5x. On full delivery of the strategic plan, investors could yield a 6x return, and we re-iterate Buy.

Elevating The Works – plan to add £100m sales and c400bps to EBITDA margin The growth strategy was refreshed in with plans to grow sales to £375m and EBITDA margin to 6%+ within 5 years, equating to c£100m sales growth and a 4-fold PBT/EPS increase. The wide-ranging plan centres on building brand awareness, improving customer convenience and becoming a lean/efficient operator, the latter of which is fundamental to success given the inflationary costs from Labour. Enhancing the proposition to drive sales/ft + GP/ft against a mostly fixed cost base is also key. This includes putting value back into the range, localising the offer and optimising prices.

Low valuation offers significant upside Despite recent gains, WRKS trades on 1.2x Apr’26 EV/EBITDA (pre-IFRS16), with a 16% adj. FCF yield. We had used a discounted target multiple of 1.5x given low margins and an uncertain backdrop, highlighting risk to the upside as the team delivers its plans. With Q4 showing initiatives have gained traction, we lift our target multiple to 2.5x. After also rolling forward a year, our target price rises to 53p (+96%). The benefit of growth and rating expansion could yet deliver significant further upside, for example to 87p in 1 year (using 3.5x) or to c200p in 4 years on full delivery of the plan (using 5x).