RE: $70m Raise1 May 2026 17:58
SilverFoxd —
I think points 3 and 4 ultimately lead to the same place — the only difference being that option 4 likely comes with greater urgency and larger backers stepping in.
Even if the first two drills deliver positive results, the reality is that two wells prove very little in isolation. Regardless of how encouraging they might be, you’re still looking at dozens — if not hundreds — of additional wells to properly define size, quality, pressure, continuity, and commercial viability across the field. That’s just the nature of the process.
Two wells alone won’t be enough to move the dial for serious development capital, particularly from the “big players” some are expecting to step in. There’s a long road between initial success and full-scale development. So 3 & 4 are both likely to result in a “move to appraisal wells.”
Chilli —
I agree with your summary, and as I’ve said previously, the biggest question mark for me remains the extent of the seeps.
Yes, seeps confirm the presence of hydrocarbons — but they also indicate leakage. The more seeps, the greater the leaks. Worth considering that such leaks have likely been depleting hydrocarbon reserves for MILLIONS of years. They didn't start leaking yesterday.
Add to that the scale of uplift JL has undergone — estimated at 1.5–3km or more — and you’re looking at a structure that has likely experienced significant fracturing, faulting, and disruption. That’s not a trivial consideration.
Just consider the analogy: if the ground beneath you were forced vertically upwards by several kilometres, would you expect the underlying structure to remain intact and uniform? Of course not — it would be heavily altered.
JL has undergone exactly those kinds of forces. The North Sea, which it’s often compared to, hasn’t experienced the same degree of uplift and structural disturbance.
So the question has to be asked — are they comparable? Personally, I think not. But, like everyone, I hope ECONOMICALLY VIABLE reserves are found.
As with all my posts — past, present and future — this is IMHO only. Opinion, not advice. Please DYOR before making any investment decisions.