RE: Greenland Mineral Resources Strategy 2025-20293 Jul 2025 16:11
A long but worthwhile read - thanks for posting Ashton. It is a positive vision – but let’s keep some perspective
The Greenland Government’s latest mining initiative is an impressive and ambitious step — their intent to position Greenland as a significant mining jurisdiction is clear, and they’re clearly open to greater engagement with companies and governments. That’s an encouraging signal. However, as CC rightly highlights the stated goal of establishing (an additional?) 8–10 producing mines will require a huge number of exploration projects to be launched — and realistically, the majority will fail. That’s not pessimism; it’s the nature of the industry.
Even under normal conditions, the statistics are sobering. For every 1,000 early-stage exploration projects, only about 1–5 ever result in a producing mine. Of those that do identify a mineralised deposit, only about 1 in 500 advances to a stage where resource estimation, drilling, and economic evaluation begins. From that point, only 10–15% make it to the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) stage — and around 70% of those still don’t pass the PFS (which makes you wonder why Dundas hasn't been a more prominent target for advancement). Even among the projects that do pass the PFS, roughly half never reach the construction phase. In other words, somewhere between 995 and 999 out of every 1,000 projects fail to deliver any return to investors — they absorb capital, lose shareholder value and yield nothing.
So, if Greenland is serious about building (an additional?) 8–10 mines, then at the very least 1,600–2,000 exploration projects may be needed to generate that result — meaning perhaps 1,590–1,990 of them will ultimately lose investors money. Even if their new policy framework improved outcomes by a (very optimistic) third (by utilizing existing / improved data, improving access to funds etc), you’re still looking at 1,060–1,326 failed projects before hitting those 8 –10 producing mines.
We must also consider that improved regulatory standards — such as requiring renewable energy over cheap diesel plants and generators — while a very welcome step in environmental terms, will raise initial project costs. Long-term, that's a good thing, but in the near term, it may deter marginal players or amplify early-stage risk.
Advancements in AI-driven exploration, like those pursued by KoBold, could potentially improve efficiency and aid in advancing Greenland's blueprint — but notably, KoBold recently exited Greenland. Was that a retreat from the jurisdiction itself, or just from its partnership with 80M? Personally I believe we'll see Kobold back in Greenland at some stage - but maybe not with 80M as a partner.
In short, I think Greenland’s mining blueprint is to be applauded — but investors should remain grounded in the realities of exploration risk and development timelines.