Thoughts / Risk Analysis (1)29 Jul 2020 12:48
I was going to post the other day when Rowka had his mini melt down – glad he came back and apologised, it is great to have someone around with so much energy even if his motives are potentially questionable. I am also glad that the “guess the final selling price” has calmed down as well. Don’t get me wrong I like a bit of estimating/dreaming – what I don’t like is people getting nasty shooting other people down when no one on here really knows what we have and what it’s worth. As I think Newbie said, we are all playing “pin the tail on the donkey" – only we can’t see the donkey even if we peaked, if you put 150 pins in, at the end someone is going to be right / closest and the rest not - until the big RNS – we are all right and we are all wrong.
I’m definitely a LTH and follow this board for all its good and bad. We all know the positives, but I don’t think we have explored what could go wrong from here on in – a sort of risk analysis. Please don’t say I’m a de-ramper, I’m just trying to stoke up some proper conversation. Every botfly needs a nemesis, and that could be Rowka – maybe he also has an agenda we should explore, I’ve seen the positivity a few times and see it go wrong (SOU, OXS, VOG). So what can happen from here apart from a sale :-
1) I can’t imagine the SP is being ramped so that the directors can get out on a high (like SOU), they hold too many and would have to RNS any changes, so we can cross that off.
2) The share price being manipulated by the MM’s. I’m not saying they can’t do that as I don’t know any better, but really? I would subscribe to what someone else said the other day that a large holder could be buying and selling to hold the price where it is. At the end of the day, people are selling at this price and people are buying, if that is in equilibrium, then why do the MM’s need to increase the SP?
3) This is Russia … could they take away the licence on some claim of wrongdoing (like OXS)? Possible, but I don’t think the BOD would ever let that happen. That said, if the bounty is as big as some predict … it could be tempting for them. At the end of the day, they could “swing” the sale NN’s way for political/strategic reasons, I don’t think that would affect the shareholders, we would still get our sale.
4) Would be interesting to know if Anders / PT get any more information from the Co. as large shareholders. Not saying insider trading, but maybe they can use their shareholding leverage to get more details than we would. Either way, it’s positive that both are holding at present, and again, would need to RNS if the bought any more / had less.
... tbc