Hey Dr. P.
No idea. We have two more weeks to the end of the quarter and year. I would imagine a TU to be around the corner to indicate generic updates ahead of the Annual report which I could imagine will be available sometime end of September, early October. But I don't think anyone really knows. I am seeing some more traction in the overall Biotech / Biopharma space. With earnings season in full swing and continuous focus on new drug development and vaccines etc. I like most of us are probably itching for some news.
Either way, the hurdles are out of the way. Let us see how the business seeks to maximise operational efficiency, sales and balance with lab capacity. At this point is feel like the numbers need to do the talking
Honestly it is a combination of thing in my view.
o Salaries coming in
o New CEO joining in matter of days
o Fed Reserve meetings yesterday and today
-pot. last 1-2 rate hikes ahead
o Q2 earnings season
o Upcoming end of financial year for ONC (Aug 31st)
-balance sheet will 100% be better than last
o Investors reshuffling portfolios now
o director buys
Etc.
But who knows what is really driving the trades. If it is director buys we should get RNS soon on that.
It depends. In some cases a new CEO means that change is on the horizon. New strategy, goals, reorganisation, and drive to improve top and bottom line and bring innovation etc.. depending on where the business is at in the given time. I feel like ONC has gone through the reorg and strategy definition already so my expectation would be the new CEO to bring business contacts, drives innovation (AI) and looks at scalable growth to improve the top line (first priority) - increase revenue. The company has been through rough seas over the last years. I think they need to build out the sales teams and partner networks and then focus at capacity to provide the services at scale i.e. new lab facility. Although given our current revenue it looks like the current facility in Dortmund should have plenty of unused capacity for right now.
Bad news is good to let out when the sp is already down imho so that then when momentum builds there won't be any more surprises (hopefully).
@Trek, it was wishful thinking. I didn't check the chart tbh. You are most likely right that our next stop is at 30 the 40 etc. 50 would be a big leap from here. I think that the new CEO joining next week will give a little confidence boost and hopefully a TU soon as well. Seem to just remember a lengthy linger around 50s....
@Dr. P. - 100% even if I had more to give right now. Nothing is guaranteed and I cannot pump more into this stock. I gave it a 5k boost too a few weeks back at what seemed to be rock bottom. My average is now decent enough for me to most likely break even if the business was acquired today.... still a ways to go on regular course though.
I wonder if they will wait for the full year end results to be published. Alistair noted in a recent report that FY23 was a challenging year. I think we can all piece together why but I wonder if the next report will be disappointing and he was preparing us for that. Macroeconomic headwinds seem to persist. In any case come October I think the we will be in the know and have clear direction from new BoD ahead and probably some skin in the game as it were.
Not so fast Dr. P. - let's give them until 01 Aug. Seems like a good idea to throw out the trash news whilst the shares are in no man's land anyway.
Does anyone at this point have knowledge of what the expected IMMUNOInsights revenue for the full year is predicted to be?
Hey Dr.Patience,
here is an extract from the Annual results /trading update Nov 2021.
" The revenue reported is lower than the headline £5.6M indicated in the unaudited full-year trading update issued on 8 June, due largely to revenue recognition relating to an invoice for £1.7M to an historic EarlyCDT Lung distributor. The Group is unable to recognise this revenue in the year ended 31 May 2021 as the revenue recognition requirements of IFRS 15 have not been met at this time".
They left 1.7mio on the table. This is why many investors are/were up in arms. Significant blow to the revenue for that year.
Well said Trek, I echo this. The old guard has now been replaced by a commercially focused team of executives/ director. I feel relieved to see that a new BoD is coming together to take this new business model to where it needs to be. The AI story will surely unfold over the coming 6 months. Spring is back. Really excited about this news.
Probably using Grail and others. Baffled by who long it takes to get a foot in the door with NHS and getting things approved for use. This is not only the NHS though but the rest of the core target group for EarlyCDT. In that sense we should see much faster times to revenue and a more streamlined sales process for ImmunoInsights.
But the cancer screening market is growing and quite sizeable with plenty of room for revenue growth. Shame its sold but again for the best. Agree with Doc. P. around high value, high margin moving forward. Trying to get average down to so will top up as soon as I can free some funds myself.
what's your deal c_schmitt. your reactions resemble a spasm.....
it's obvious you are frustrated. if you can't see anything good about onc, then sell your shares or be smart and don't act like a pre-puberty teenager. i am not that old but you seem a bit immature.
i dread to know what you were like in 2007/08 or during the covid crunch time..... absolutely no resilience. i would assume that my steak here is way heavier and my losses way bigger than yours.
yea i want people to see the value of onc, don't you? if anyone is playing a dirty game it might be you.
the board is making decisions and they are replacing the ceo with immediate effect. this is a result of the recent performance mot likely. but if you think adam had no impact on the success of onc, establishing a service offering that is ready to make money and laying foundations to realise growth moving forward, you are wrong. i am excited for what is to come. let this flower grow man. stop ****ting all over it.
Thank you, Adam for your service to ONC over the last 5 years. Speaking as an outsider, I am cautious to make judgements but the macro-environment has been challenging and at times also provided tailwinds. Regardless, I could see the hard work and struggle to get ONC to where we are now, irrespective of SP. Not everything worked out, clearly. But it seems the company after the restructure and asset sale is now at a new Ground 0. A fresh start...let's just imagine it's all beginning now.
Glad to read Alistair's comments around new and focused growth strategy for FY24 - keen to learn what that may be in detail. Expanding US Commercial team further and promising realisatuon of shareholder value and enhancing dialogue/ in my interpretation being kore Shareholder focused. A more business minded approach is much needed here.
Back to basics. We have a company here with high calibre medical experts, proven business executives and high value commercial teams and not to forget the scientists delivering the work!
Let's try and be more financially responsible moving forward. Feel slightly better now although it was indicated that this financial year is tough. So I guess we are in for a shocker when the next results are out summing up the first year in the new fiscal cycle. If it dips further as a result I take any scraps I have left to put down here. I mean, it doesn't take much right now to lower my average significantly at these values.
I think the main issue is communication. Yes we are only covering the debt, however, the Early CDT overheads are gone now too so lower CAPEX and there are contracts in place with Biodesix and Freenome that should guarantee some revenue for the coming years.
With focus on the ImmunoInsights Service I would wish to see some bolder statement as to the growth potential here. To say the pipe is growing by 0.75m every month standing at around 16-17m8o right now is not good enough. You need at least 4x coverage and probably more when the markets are still under pressure to deliver growth numbers. We need to see a big ambition here that gives investors trust in the companies' potential.
Sorry but we are currently at appx. 13.3mio market cap with real ImmunoInsights revenues at just over 1.1m or so
10x PE....management need to start playing ball here. Wtf
But I need to say it again. I am optimistic here and think that this focus will pay off. The next report will be an indicator. It better be good.
Remember this year is supposed to be the year of inflection for the company. At the moment it is the year for reflection for investors.
Goes without saying that the CEO buying in at these levels is an indication that at the very least he is confident in the value proposition of ONC.
Reasons for buying are obvious too:
-Shareholder trust
-Pharma M&A activity and ramp of shares before potential sale
-Knowing that this SP is rock bottom and can only go up from here
I trust that ONC has sold assets and not so desperate as to sell the rest for an apple and an egg
You are spot on there. I would appeal to management/and the large investors to not sell out here at this valuation. Or anything under 120mio at its current state. Many people incuding myself would lose tremendous amounts and I would not see an immediate need to sell. There is opportunity to make so much more cash. My average on this SP is 1.3GBP with a proportionally gigantic holding.
I will have faith. That is all I have left. Faith and appeal
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