Member Info for Quickdip

As long as you’re alright Steve.

Just watched. Nothing in it for housebuilders.

£10,000 invested in this at the beginning of this year would now be worth £5,000 vs £17,583 if invested in FGP. That’s 351% more.

I got back in early afternoon yesterday as soon as I heard about the US inflation.

Housebuilder stocks will go crazy today. I reckon we’ll see over £14 for PSN today.

Apologies crossley, Perhaps David buik was referring to the core the when he said high 5’s, I was only half listening.

I’m not sure how it could fall from 6.7 to 4.7 in a single month, but hope it does of course. All eyes on the data at 7am! I do think the housebuilders have reached a turning point now and will recover very nicely from here with inflation in the rear view mirror. Isn’t it the budget next week too? Hopefully the focus can shift away from “halving inflation” and towards helping FTB’s buy their own home. I hear they’re planning to announce an overhaul of the LISA.

Hi Crossley. I can’t see it coming in below 4.8% to be honest. David Buik was on LBC this morning saying he thought it would be high 5’s. Telegraph was the only one tipping 4.7%. Personally, I’d be happy with anything sub 5.5%.

Does a business have to be “up for sale” now to receive a bid?

Companies get unsolicited takeover bids all the time without even expressing an interest to sell.

This sale that you pin your hopes on, what happens to the share price if it doesn’t happen?

Has there been any offers or indication of interest?

Hindy

Did you just pluck these numbers out of thin air?

Marstons is selling its pubs off to pay down debt. The crooked house being a well publicised one.

WT

I’m not sure what you’re driving at by saying the buses are replaced. That is reflected in the balance sheet. They don’t uplift after purchase.

I’m not causing mischief at all, I’m merely looking at the balance sheet, subtracting the goodwill (which I don’t beleive to be worth anything if it can’t produce a return, then how can it have any value?) and I see the net assets are in slightly negative territory. Then I look at the profitability, again no value to be had there.

The reason I say 30p in marstons. Yes, it’s a completely different business, but it’s an example of how a previously valuable company has gone through the floor. It has a stronger balance sheet than MCG too so how can this be worth 60p, and that worth 30p. There’s roughly the same number of shares in issue. We’re talking a circa £200m mcap vs £400m for this yes marstons has about £600m net tangible assets- this doesn’t.

There must be a reason shorts are increasing and institutions not buying in, but of course this could well have a rolls Royce moment (im not sure what the catalyst would be, but you never know) that has a horrific balance sheet too.

WT

Property always appreciates long term. Are you telling me that buses do too? Are you telling me that goodwill purchased years ago is now more that it was years ago even though it now produces a return less than you can now get on cash?

Don’t try comparing apples with oranges.

And as for people moaning that they’ve lost money, perhaps they should’ve listened to me at £1.20 instead of saying that I was an idiot.

Hindy,

Obviously it has assets, it’s a bus company. Let’s say you own a £1m house, and owe £1.1m on it. How much equity do you have?

Wealth transfer, you say totally unforeseen by anyone, but you acknowledge that I called it to 60p at £1.20? Now I look at it at 60p and think why wouldn’t it stop falling?

No, I think 25-30p will be the bottom- much like Marstons. Share price decimated by debt. Everyone said I was daft for calling it down to 60p from £1.20, but here we are…

No. I think 25-30p is more likely.

I just sold out of this for a 11% profit in a week. Looks overbought now. Split the proceeds between vistry and crest for their upcoming trading updates.

Everything in line with expectations.

“Over the past 5 weeks private sales rates have improved to 0.59 (2022: 0.45) showing a strong pick up since the start of October.”

Halifax just reported house prices increased 1.1% in October too.

7-21 July it went up 21%.

Well correct me if I’m wrong but PSN shot up on the last trading update, along with al the other housebuilders.

Hope the shorts get burned.

I believe Vistry shot up on results? I think the market knows last year has been turbulent. But markets are forward looking, not backward. And now interest rates have peaked, things are on the up for housebuilders.

I’m sure you do “really hope you’re wrong” Mike, I wouldn’t think for a minute that you’re worried you’ve missed the bottom. 😆