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Let me break it down for you avocet.
You say “it’s already fallen 66% so can’t fall much more”
If we get a repeat of 2008 and it crashes approximately 85% peak to trough, it would go from £33 to £4.95. You with me so far?
Now if it reaches 4.95, when the share price is currently £11, that would be approximately 55% loss from the CURRENT share price of you invested today.
And as for “IF there’s a downturn” there’s absolutely no question. There are far greater challenges facing HB’s today than in 2008. Building costs- up, wage costs-up, sales-down, profit margin- down. Cost of cladding rectification as well. Candle burning at both ends.
Moonman, it seemed to have turned a corner at 140, plenty to look forward to that might boost the share price. When I realised there was no rally in it despite the driver strike ending, divi being paid I got out. When it kept falling off 124 I thought I had a better chance shorting it 😉
Anyone buying this with a view to holding for 5+ years will make money imo, BUT I just don’t see the point in taking a 25-40% dip and then sitting in a trough for a year or 2. My cash is earning 4% interest just now ready to jump in when the time is right.
Avocet, it’s just like 2008, worse in fact because of the rising costs too.
Sub prime mortgages was lending to people who couldn’t afford it. Just like today, lending to people cheaply who can’t afford it when interest rates go up. House prices don’t crash overnight. People will still be tied into cheap fixed. When those repossessions start coming to market, we’ll have over supply and no cheap credit to fund the purchases. The crash is inevitable.
Sharefall, Happy to be corrected on this but I believe PSN is the weakest balance sheet of all the house builders in terms of value for money. It’s priced higher than book value, whereas all other HB’s were priced 80% of bv at most last time I checked.
I also believe it is a good long term hold (5+ years) but the best returns come from buying at the lowest prices and I don’t think we’re anywhere near yet I’d the last crash is anything to go by.
“People need to live somewhere” yes, but that doesn’t mean they need to move. They’ll probably stay in the house they already have with their cheap fixed rate mortgage deal locked in, or if they’re a FTB, they’ll stay at home for longer.
People are fearful, and it only takes one person in the chain for the fear to get the better of them and the whole chain collapses.
Very turbulent times ahead. Every time a builder says the same thing, all HB’s tank. This is not gibberish. We haven’t even had any results yet 😳 Do you really think another divi will be paid this year, or the next? It’s the divi underpinning this SP. Be careful catching these falling knifes.
I think this name change will backfire from a SP perspective. Even if people didn’t like the balance sheet, they may have had faith in the brand, being as it’s a familiar sight on our roads.
There’ll be no more “I invested here because I saw the bus was full” investor types.
If banks are willing to pay 5.7% + the FSCS levy and make a profit, where on earth are they investing it at getting a better return that’s worth the risk? It certainly won’t be nex with these financials.
5.7% 1 year fix best rate for FSCS protected.
The bulls are finally waking up to smell the coffee.
I was first out, Longer guy has gone, JG had enough, seems paddy and poker have gone too.
Why would it get a take over bid when you can get 5.5% risk free return and this returns nothing? The divi isn’t sustainable while it makes a loss.
Steve, I don’t think they’ll drop 35% either. They fell about 15% in 2008, but the PSN share price fell about 85%. Why? It only takes a relatively small drop in house prices to wipe out the HB margin which in turn always tanks the SP a lot more than the house price drop.