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Another 5p divi in the second half is what’s really needed to bump the SP up. There’s plenty of profit there. Would cost £30m out of the £145m operating profit. Directors would get their full bonus. Everyone’s a winner.

Pokerchips. How do you calculate an extra £20m in finance costs? Money of the debt is bonds fixed until 2028, by which time interest rates are forecast to have dropped. The only debt due this year is a £400m bond. Interest rates haven’t increased by 5%.
Buy just supposing they did have to pay an extra £20m, that would only reduce profit by about 10%. Hardly justifies a 60% drop in the SP.

Let’s go back to 2006 when the BoE base rate was 5%, compared to 4.25% today.

The SP was £4-6. The total assets were £1,722.7m, total liabilities 1377.2m- 79.94% leveraged. NAV- £345.5m

Compared to today, total assets: £4153.9m, total liabilities £2,763.2m- 66.5% leveraged. NAV- £1,390m

So to put it into context, when the book value was 25% of what it is today, the share price was 4x higher. Go figure. Interest rates were higher too.

Solid bagger this is.

Hindy, we don’t have any more debt than we’ve carried over the past 30 years. Interest rates have returned to normal (pre 2008) when the SP was £4-5. Its just been a knee-jerk reaction from the markets to sell out. It will recover to at least £2.50 in the next 12 months IMO.

It would be illegal to sell anything else that doesn’t belong to you so why is it legal with shares? Since we’re all using car analogy’s, short selling is like me leaving my car at the airport car park while I take a trip away.
Without my knowledge or consent, the car park loans my car out. The person who borrows it sells it, again without my consent. When I get back, I am given a replacement car worth half as much.

It looks to me like this will replicate what happened at IAG. The long term graph is very similar. After revisiting covid lows last September for the same reason NEX has been battered (interest rates) it bounced about 80% within 4 months. Does anyone know if there was a catalyst, or did the market just see sense?

I’m really not sure how shorting is legal, it seems totally corrupt. People bought nex at say £2.50 last year. The share platform then lends out these shares (that don’t belong to them) they get sold without the owners consent or knowledge, SP gets batted down, shorters make a profit, and the beneficial owner is left holding the bag. On the flip side, it seems a good opportunity to get in if a share has been heavily shorted, before those shares have to be repurchased bumping the SP back up.

Thanks paddy. So if I understand correctly the 15.5m+ shares have been sold crashing the SP, but when these are repurchased the SP has to go back up? Do they have to be paid back by a certain time?

Peaky am I correct in thinking these short sellers will have to buy back at some point which will bump the price up? When it says 2.5% are shorted, is the percentage of the total shares in issue?

We’re pretty much guaranteed to get to £1.85. No bonuses paid to the top dogs unless they get us there, and it’s pretty easy for them to do it. All they have to do is put the divi upto 10p (which is affordable based on the recent results) and it would be a 5% yield at a £2 share price. Top dogs get their bonus, everyone’s a winner.

suggests the £2 cap has seen a good uplift in passenger numbers.

Gsolomon

I think we’ll see £2 a lot quicker than 18 months.
I set my sell targets on the basis that what goes down for no apparent reason, can go up just as quickly. I’m expecting to get £2.50 in 12 months max.

Curious to know what people’s avg buy in is? And what they are hoping to sell out at?
Mine was 137, but I picked some more up last week bringing it down to 122.8, not selling until 250 (June 2022 levels).

We’ll be getting a trading update in April/May which will reiterate the strong position and we’ll see the rally we had around the results, which won’t be marred be strikes this time.

The cynical side of me questions together all the overly complicated RNS’s for JPM selling, then reversing the sale is just an attempt to cause panic in the market.

Up 3 days in a row from historic lows. New isa allowance and upcoming divi for the first time in 3 years. It would be foolish to short it from here.

You say only 9p but thats approximately 30%. To be honest I can see it revisiting covid lows very soon. High debts, wafer thin margins, food inflation and now selling off the assets. Nota business doing well. I took a 10% loss and sold up

@denfos
You’re on to a looser here. Wouldn’t pay anymore than £1 a share. Shouldn’t be too long.

Shorts are obviously playing games with us. They can only keep the share price at these lows for so long.

“Pound a share roll up, roll up”
This is the stock market, not a fruit and veg market. Given the NAV is over £2 a share what valuation ratio have you used to arrive specifically at £1?