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Only a 12% ROI westy? Crikey what’s your avg buy in and can you see any fundamental difference since then?

I meant TUI hasn’t been listed long enough to gauge if it can bounce back from the troughs. At the end of the day, it’s investor sentiment that dictates all share prices and it seems it’s been dwindling for 5 years, so I’m not sure it can ever recover. Carnival looks a better bet but with a p/b of 1.82, and consistently making huge losses, it doesn’t tickle my pickle.

TUI is verging on being blue chip but it’s not really been established long enough, and I don’t think it pays a divi?. Carnival definitely isn’t, 9/10 people on the street wouldn’t have a clue who they are. Both of those companies could well collapse, just as Thomas cook did. It’s a saturated market and isn’t essential, which is important in a cost of living crisis. Nex has a monopolised market, with a high barrier to entry, and will always be in demand.
If you think 160-200, that’s still a 30-60% return in a year.

Noggers

None of those shares are blue chip companies. All shares are cyclical, this more than others, but long established companies such as this don’t just go bust. The macro has caused people to throw the baby out with the bath water here. IMV it’s far more risky to buy shares with a positive outlook, what about when that outlook changes? your investment is mashed. Far better to buy when all pessimism has already been priced in and the only way is up!

Liberum has a lot to answer for here. All other analysts have a price target over £2, and then Liberum put a ludicrous £1.15 target and then bang, here we are. All fundamentals forgotten until next trading update. Funny that they also issued a super buy rating on Superdry, setting a target of £5… today it crashed to 88p, shows what those clowns know.

The market seems to be forgetting that although there’s a lot off debt on the balance sheet, there’s almost twice that in assets. I wonder how different the SP would be if the busses were leased instead? I think people are just waiting to see this start moving up before they jump in, and we really need a trading update to get the ball rolling.

What’s your avg buy in paddy?

Now now kijahu. Put the handbag away.

Fashion is a very difficult market to be in, especially when the brand has gone out of fashion as is the case with Superdry.

I fear this has much further to go, as happened with asos and boohoo.

Nex is a boom/bust share. Over its 30 year life, it’s had 5 crashes, but most importantly it always bounces back. It’s a bread and butter business, never going to go online or out of fashion etc. Every time it’s reached the bottom, it’s always bounced back fairly quickly. Watch what happens when the macro changes. It’s now at the covid floor. Get in at the bottom and sell when it bounces back. Dyor GLA

All hail king Denfos. If you go back to my post, I asked why you thought a 5p divi would cause an 8p drop, particularly when it hadn’t risen into the dividend. I also said my avg is £1.22, take off the divi and I’m effectively in at £1.17. I also said a short term drop is irrelevant because I’m not selling until £2.50.

When this double bags, I’ll buy you a set of specs!

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/national-express-west-midlands-adds-26687094.amp

https://www.thebusinessdesk.com/westmidlands/news/2073391-national-express-west-midlands-makes-biggest-electric-bus-order-yet

So you were a genius. What’s your opinion on NEX? Now in a very similar position (covid lows/same sector) to when this was at £1.

Why would it drop by the divi amount? The divi was never priced in in the first place. We were at £1.24 before the divi and the strong results were announced. Most shares that drop on ex-divi amount have risen in the run up. This hasn’t.

With questions like this it wouldn’t surprise me if we get a flurry of buying tomorrow hoping to get in for the divi.

Kg. Apologies, it did, but it made it back the next day. Got to take a long term view I guess. I’m not selling until £2.50 and I’m happy to wait upto 18 months, so daily price movements are irrelevant unless you’re looking to sell.

KG it’s not what always happens. Howdens didn’t drop on ex divi last week.

Denfos How do you calculate an 8p reduction for a 5p divi?

Going ex divi in 2 days. IMF saying rates will return to pre pandemic levels. Or maybe the market has just realised how ridiculously cheap this stock is?

Absolutely right Peltata. Interest rates should’ve steadily risen from 2010 onwards. The whole economy is built on cheap debt. Everyone’s biggest expense (incl people, companies, government) is going to be servicing the debts they’ve built up, which in itself is inflationary. I reckon rates will peak at 4.5% and then drop back to 2.5-3% as the new norm.