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6zeros: you are quite right in your views on looking to the future of MAFL, although given the difficulty of getting traction on even the short term prospects, its probably an uphill struggle. I would just add that other strategies/opportunities are already being looked at (I think cobalt has been mentioned). This investment and finance company has lots of potential legs, it’s not a one investment horse.
Lewis: I used the imputed numbers from the management's June 2017 RNS, which was after the first four hole results were known. Whilst I am unsure about where these base numbers came from, given this management's integrity, one imagines they would have only used those numbers if happy they represented a sound base case. Anyway they are, of course, just notional in the ground values. No doubt bargains can be found if you know where to look, especially with an experienced team! Remember the LS asset came with two Spanish mines too (since sold) but there is always a lot of trading of resource assets, sometime due to factors such as the timing and cost of renewing permits etc.
We are very near to having a geo�s estimate based upon all LS drilling results, perhaps followed by sale terms around year end. However, we do have the bod�s own comments when the 15% government interest was bought-in this summer (RNS 7.6.17). On the original 4.5Mt resource, the imputed 100% resource value then was $960m. The new drill programme is designed to confirm and increase the resource by 75-125% (to 8-10Mt). If achieved, that would imply a total value between $1.6-2.1bn (simple scaling up, no account of changed mineral values). No idea of what price "minerals in the ground" will fetch but, on the same basis and assuming a 75-125% increase is achieved, every 1% of price in the ground would come to $16-21m. MAFL�s interest is 49% of that, with some speculation that may increase under its financing terms. We really need to wait for further information. It won�t be long, patience required as ever. IMHO, DYOR etc.
Well done LewisXT, that is the support MAFL needs. It takes a while fro large trades to be reported. Agreed completely Mask. I suspect many sellers are traders or those who have not understood the story (no DYOR). I am not sure how influenced investors are by this bb (and there are other bbs which I have not followed) but we should try to maintain high standards in the hope this makes a difference! Are you sure O1N sold up - I thought someone said he was just focused on something else?
The significant holding disclosure is probably in respect of a different company, as the disclosure is for the same name plus "SA", not "Ltd". Not uncommon to protect your trading name by registering in several jurisdictions.
Mask/6z: Having been invested in MAFL for over 2 years, the RNS I was thinking of was back in 2015. It leaves some questions unanswered (and no follow-up I am aware of on purchasing senior secured notes or the status of THC treasury shares). However, it is clear that THC had tiny financial resources in 2015 although it may have recapitalised since; given that MAFL does have capital and is also in the business of asset financing, that is why I feel its reasonable IMHO to speculate it has been providing most of the finance but we do not know this for sure or on what terms. Clearly finance would normally be provided to THC as the owner of the Portuguese asset holding company (originally 85% but now 100%). Hope this helps! “RNS Number: 3329X dated 27 August 2015” “To facilitate this transaction M&FI has acquired a 49% equity stake in TH Crestgate Gmbh ("TH Crestgate") from Mr R. Maurer and Mr F. Moppert for a consideration of CHF121,600 (c. £82,000). Thereafter, M&FI will invest a further CHF98,000 (c. £66,000) through the issue of treasury shares of TH Crestgate. The Principals of TH Crestgate will also purchase CHF102,000 (c. £69,000) to maintain their 51% interest in the Company. It is intended that, M&FI will also purchase senior secured notes in due course; the terms of these notes are still under discussions and a further announcement will be made if the investment is made.” “TH Crestgate is a privately owned Swiss-based company. TH Crestgate recently acquired 100% of shares and intercompany debt of TSX-listed Portex Minerals' Portuguese and Spanish base metals portfolio. TH Crestgate is currently debt free. TH Crestgate currently generates a nominal profit and the book value of its assets is CHF 64,000 (c. £43,000) (unaudited).”
Mask: On all normal commercial principles, one would expect MAFL to obtain a refund of and some return on its financing (I remember it was seeking security). Thanks 6z for agreeing to look out the RNS. Nonetheless, Mask, your points are well made and I suggest we should all therefore keep speculation to a minimum and regard this topic as closed.
Mask: No time immediately to plough through past references but an RNS at the beginning of the 4-hole programme explicitly stated it was providing finance to THC. It has also been stated here many times that, as an investment company, LSE/AIM rules prevent MAFL taking control of any investment, hence 49% max (something I have taken at face value). Completely agree that 49% is great, this just raises the interesting prospect, no more, of a greater percentage coming through eventually. There is NO assumption this will be the case but MAFL must be repaid somehow and we know how smart JV is.
Nomlungu: Whilst it is speculation, if one understands that MAFL is providing all or most of the drill funding (and therefore bearing most risk), as well as JV's talents and role in leading operations, it would not be unreasonable to reckon that MAFL might have an option to convert its loans into a greater participation? All should become clear at the latest when a sale is announced - but it would provide significant further upside for this great stock! DYOR, IMHO etc
Glacial: I am absolutely with you on that, it is crazy what one has been seeing. But the so-called investors also make up the market and they must be equally responsible - how can anybody who has the slightest understanding of what MAFL is sitting on be selling in the sizes and on a sustained basis for so long? Impatience, short term trades etc? I doubt anybody other than market makers can go short this stock so the volumes also do puzzle me. LSE's own volume counter is complete rubbish on many occasions.
Value Stock: Any debate along the lines of historic 'NAV' is absolutely meaningless when one knows that THC owns a $900m mineral resource, and that likely to be rather greater when all drill results are in. I do not know what mixed minerals still in the ground are worth but even 2% of that (which seems a modest sum) would be worth $20m. Whilst THC is 49% owned by MAFL, there is a view that may possibly to be increased under its drilling financing terms. None of that value is reflected in today's price (see latest RNS). Whatever way you look at this, and especially given shortages and pricing of zinc etc., buyers for the resources paying a good price should not be hard to find. This is a great value stock with excellent fundamentals. We are about to see what that really means.
U69 - it's commonplace for significant shareholders to be represented on the board. Coupled here with JV's resource experience and their additional significant loan financing of THC. JV is looking after MAFL's interests and is the primary driver IMO.
U69: The 49% condition would likely come from the fact that MAFL is classified as an investment company. Whilst we should recognise that the number may go up if MAFL's financing terms provide for this, we can surely only speculate at the moment? Clearly it would make a big difference to the value but if it were just a right and not yet exercised (the drilling and thus the expense are not yet finished), that increased participation is not yet vested. MAFL has been listed on AIM for many years under a different name but I believe always in recent years as an investment company. LS and the Spanish assets, through THC, are a very recent acquisition.
Mask: I do agree with U69 that we might expect some uplift in the participation upon the eventual sale of LS as we know much of the drilling finance (and therefore risk) has been carried by MAFL, although on what terms we do know. But to expect 49% and to learn that more is actually due will just be a greater bonus and the possibility an additional attraction of the share, IMO.
Open-ended funds do sell at NAV but they almost invariably invest in liquid stocks which can be fairly valued. I am supportive of different views being expressed here but for MAFL I have to completely ignore the rigorous chart-based stuff since it has no relevance for a value stock which is awaiting re-rating due to major discoveries. He doesn't understand VALUE. As correctly observed, the published NAV is almost irrelevant as it does not reflect the potential for a very substantial LS uplift, just like other companies' sp might not yet reflect them winning a major new contract or creating a new wonder product. Identifying those opportunities is precisely what value investing is all about. Very happy to be sitting here with a decent holding and further good news imminent. Just do not want the de-rampers clouding the facts of what looks like a strong buy with very limited downside, IMHO. DYOR, GLA
U69, I am sure they will sell the whole of LS, I seem to recall it is about 13 hectares. But they may retain either some shares in the purchaser (if it is quoted) or perhaps a royalty to offset the lower price one imagines is achievable for such an early stage asset? Either route would be consistent with MAFL's objectives as an investment company and the same approach they adopted with FCR and the Spanish assets. I have commented before that "minor metals" like indium are probably icing on the cake, the real meat and value will surely be in the base metals which are coming out massively. We have no real idea of the mix as this is "faulted" geology so each area seems a bit different. The geo will no doubt report his views at the end of drilling.
Mask: I too would hope that most shares are now in LTH sticky hands but I never cease to be amazed by the large, if not enormous, numbers of shares which still get sold when there is news or some other sentiment - and that selling seems to be mainly what drives the price down. Further good news undoubtedly around the corner IMO, so let's hope the sp becomes upwardly mobile!
Charlotte: That would hardly be surprising as we near the first of several focal points (end of month-ish target for remaining drill results). But we've had comments before about rounded versus non-rounded lot sizes and I wonder if one might be reading too much into that? Many large trades over the last few weeks have been rounded and I have nearly always bought rounded amounts...