Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Tbh I've hardly been following this since the February results. I topped up at a little below this level, because I still think the science is still clear and it's genuinely a lifesaver, and let my attention wander.
But my memory of 3 to 6 months ago is that we all saw it as binary: either fantastic or a near total loss. Of course we had great hopes otherwise we wouldn't have been holders but I think it was said many times that one shouldn't put more in than you really could afford to lose. It was always clear that there was a real chance it could fail, and fail badly. And if there's "a chance" that means that sometimes the chance will come about.
In the event it wasn't quite binary, we got a third option: the messed up trial. 87% of patients were given steroids: and we always knew that they don't mix with inteferon. Why? We don't know. Personally I find it hard to believe that it was not made clear NOT to use them with steroids, but I find it very easy to believe that with steroids clearly having a good effect doctors - especially consultants who always know best - ignored the instructions. Understandable, but invalidated the trial. If that were the case could Synairgen say so? I don't think so. Not if they ever want the co-operation of the medical establishment again. Maybe that's what's behind Synairgen's silence. I really don't know, it's supposition. So... rock and a hard place for them. HOW do they test it?
But however badly I've been hurt if I don't want to repeat my mistake (if any) I need to see where I went wrong. It was my choice.
Cerillion (AIM) has been very good to me, and looks ready for a further rise imv. Like you I'm going to at least take some profits, though it's likely perhaps to go to DSCV: which is in the FTSE 350.
...and the price FALLS!! Just what were they expecting?! Lol.
"Financial
· Revenue up 26% to £16.1m (H1 2021: £12.8m) reflecting ongoing major implementation projects for new customers and new orders from existing customers
· Annualised recurring revenue1 at 31 March 2022 up 9% to £9.8m (H1 2021: £9.0m), with increased uptake of managed services
· Adjusted EBITDA3 up 50% to £7.2m (H1 2021: £4.8m)
· Adjusted profit before tax4 up 65% to £6.3m (2021: £3.8m)
· Total new orders decreased to £10.9m (H1 2021: £23.6m), however new orders from existing customers increased by 12% to £10.9m (H1 2021: £9.7m) and the new customer pipeline is up 31% to £172m (H1 2021: £131m), a new record level
o new major customer signings are expected in H2 and beyond
· Strong back order book2 maintained at £39.7m (H1 2021: £42.1m)
· Adjusted earnings per share5 up 62% to 18.6p (2021: 11.5p)
· Net cash up 114% to £16.5m (31 March 2021: £7.7m)
· Interim dividend up 24% to 2.6p (2021: 2.1p)"
PS. Thanks in advance!
Right peoples, please help me, I'm an innocent in these things.
Why should I not sell up today, at 350-354p, according to the share trades tab? Cash in hand would be very helpful in today's market. Especially today's.
Why do I see a vast majority of buys (supposed) in the share trades - up to 1 million shares? What are they hoping to gain?
If they are buying for a bidding war just how much is the realistic gain they could make? I know that's only a guestimate, but if you are experienced in these things you can indicate what is totally unrealistic, which I can't.
As far as I can see much as I don't like it it's definitely going to go so why should I hang on???
Agreed Maddox. It’s the kind of share you know you don’t need to worry about. I’d much rather it wasn’t sold, so this is too cheap in my books.
Thanks guys - useful research.
Taking a first look at this. Interested to see that they have given full observer rights to a chinese geologist. So (a) the chinese are interested, and with their level of expertise/info that makes me pay attention, and (b) if the potential begins to look really good the chinese will know first and buy it cheap, and their stranglehold on world lithium and other key metals will get all the stronger. Very very short sighted as far as I am concerned. If they want to live under the power of a totally ruthless totalitarian state this is the way to go about it. They can tell their grandchildren they did their bit. Good-oh.
Another huge market.
Agreed, topped up. From the March update:
"Our results for the year to 31 March 2022 are very much dependent on exactly which IP agreements we are able (and - dependent on terms - willing) to close in the next four weeks. If we do not conclude any large IP sales, we would expect overall revenues to be no less than £6m, with positive underlying EBITDA for the year. If this is indeed the outcome for the year, we would expect to conclude a number of IP sales in the first half of our next financial year.....
...We will report with as much detail as we can at year end on the progress of our licensees and partners."
Could we hear more soon? It's way, way down, so the sp looks like it may already be discounting no news. Some good news could take it right up again.
Really really hope we can stay independent. Do you want £x now, or £10x in 10 years?
And I really really really hope if we go we don't go to the Chinese. Their strategy for a long time has to get a monopoly in these strategic metals, and I can't remember the figures but they have at least a stranglehold now. A monopoly would be very bad news for all of us.
Looks like they are trying to cut costs, Gotrader. From Tuesday's results:
"In order to focus the business, longer term developments such as cREO® and Photonic Quasi Crystal are being de-prioritised in the short term to focus our development programmes on market driven solutions. IQE will retain the technology, capability and IP enabling redeployment if and when appropriate.
An exceptional intangible asset impairment charge of £7.4m has been recognised within the Reported Operating Loss. This comprises a non-cash impairment charge of £4.7m related to cREO® development costs and patents, following a decision to pause development activities on this technology until a commercial opportunity arises, in line with the markets based approach set out in our strategic priorities.A non-cash impairment charge of £2.7m has also been recognised for Quasi Photonic Crystal (QPC) and Diffusers, following a similar decision to suspend development activities.
Exceptional restructuring costs of £3.7m have been recognised in respect of site closures that are part of the Group’s global site optimisation programme."
Maybe that's why directors have been buying: they recognise that the new CEO is trying to run a business rather than chasing a dream?
I've also been in here a long time - and so learnt some harsh lessons. Above all about myself.
Much as I want this to do well, I don't get what is slowly driving the SP upwards at the moment. Is it just that it dropped too far?
A nice problem to have:
"This new contract clearly has capacity and overhead implications. In several separate announcements, the Company has said that by mid 2023 we will have installed capacity for £50m sales p.a. which is enough to accommodate the extra volumes from this new contract. However, our staffing and infrastructure overheads are currently in line with the previous forecast of approximately £17m sales for 2023. Accordingly, the Company now needs to accelerate the recruitment and infrastructure actions required to support these much higher sales, which the Board currently estimates will result in current year overheads (mostly people related) increasing by £2.5m."
.... at 51.9p. Bit surprised at that price, seems scary low.