Member Info for PUTUP

A comparison was being made with North Sea oil. We don't produce Brent and incur a substantial discount to it (which includes transportation costs) of $21.1 per barrel. So in making the comparison you've got to either recognize this discount or, when just looking at the cost side, add the 'cost' (a reduction to revenue).

Have to add $21 to the production cost...

Edit: in the last line change "your" to "the"

"And no doubt in early 2023 it’ll be replaced by another."

Hopefully so. With good and steady cash generation modest leverage makes sense. Yes the coupon on the existing bond is steep but then that's a price of restructuring. They should be able to refinance at better rates. Take the financing leverage, with its tax shield, and boost the return to new LT equity holders. Return capital to non-believers via buybacks (at least until £2.50-3.00). And forget about the gas reinjection plan...

If we can clear 157p confidently then we should make steady progress to 197/8. Will require some fresh blood in the stock or, better yet, support from the company's buyback bid.

Agree with your points re ICG/Kurds. Expect that to remain volatile in good times as well as bad.

His first priority is to get the job done. He can chat to you when progress worth reporting is done.

Re the $100m bond, no way we want them to buy that back. When it comes due or just before they should do another issue.

We have plenty of cash generation to buy back more stock. Especially as the gas reinfection strategy is likely completely uneconomic.

This is the way.

Ever been a CEO? I suspect not.

The guy is likely rather busy. The old mantra of "your first 90 days are your most important" is a good one. Chatting with whingers and whiners is, thankfully, likely well down his list. Here's hoping that when he does speak it is in conjunction with the announcement of the resumption of buybacks.

Steady as she goes.

Come on Invstrat, cheer up!

I'd just like to take a moment to thank the old LTHs for the circa $11 million for December and circa $13 million for January of Cost Recovery that they paid for and current LTHs are now receiving (as well as recoveries in other months lately). Thank you for your service!

“ It’s amazing how quickly the hedge fund lobby groups swamped the Regulators. Says everything really.”

What a load of cr*p

"and another $14 million dollars into our bank account"

Should be closer to $16.5 m for January. Steady as she goes.

"Where am I going wrong so far?"

There are two parts. Borrow x and then sell x. If you have to borrow x in order to sell it then you have shorted x.

BTW I owed you a response from a way back. Sorry. The answer to your question was "yes".

"there's a huge amount of a Hidden share holder,"

what a load of cr*p

"People generally buy a house to live in as well as investment. They are not hoping for someone to suffer or go bust as part of the transaction. They are not short gbp they just cant afford the outlay of gbp in one go?!"

They have to borrow. That's shorting money. I sell you an instrument (mortgage) and you give me the money I don't have to buy the house.

As for buying to live in, tell that to all those buy-to-let landlords that pumped up the London property market or the greedy buy-to-flip investors that caused the GFC. We were talking about shorting money. It's hard to short housing because there isn't an effective borrow market for houses. (I can't borrow your house and sell it to someone else in the hope that I can buy it back before I have to give it back to you at the end of our borrow agreement.) But it is possible to short a proxy for that market - mortgage backed securities. Read about it in Michael Lewis's book "The Big Short."

Stocks are rate-of change indicators. The existence of a long or short doesn't drive price. It's the rate of change in position. If people decided to pile in there's upward pressure. Same to the downside. Voleon's position wasn't holding GKP down at all.

The S&P500 and NASDAQ indices have broken through support trends. The next little while could well be interesting. I've been expecting a 10% correction for a month or so now. Whether this is the start of it or not I don't know but the conditions are certainly ripe for it.

Shorts help create liquidity and more efficient markets (although their existence doesn't mean an efficient market). People sell stuff they don't have all the time - money. That's called debt.

"Smoke and mirrors as usual."

No smoke and mirrors. Limited disclosure, yes. But it's not hard to back out the relevant numbers. Carry on.

Beautiful

"I despair that a PSC flowchart shows revenue, it’s a production sharing contract, not revenue sharing!"

The chart does indeed show how revenues are shared between the parties

"The key points are that only GKP pays it and it only comes off their share of the PO."
"I used to think it was 40% but BB has persuaded me it’s 30%"

40%

(KRG pays the Iraqi corporate taxes not GKP)

"If we see 127 /128 ill be buying more... "

Got close this morning. Still lots of weak holders out there. You might still get another look at it... Today's payment announcement wasn't news but rather fully expected. 5 more sleeps until Feb 1 and we'll all be saved by SM's mystery bidder.

Discipline helps avoid being one of those that lost a huge proportion of their savings in single stock plays like GKP pre restructuring. Maybe if my Euromillions tickets come good...unlikely!

I've already told you why I wouldn't buy more for the foreseeable future. Short memory. Prudent limits on position size. I have a large enough position from a mid-80s VWAP.

"guessing you will too PUTUP??"

Nope