When Sentiment Meets Substance25 Sep 2025 08:26
At today’s ~£20m mcap, the market is valuing HE1 like there’s nothing in the ground. But let’s be factual.
If the ESP confirms ~1 Bcf of bookable reserves at Rukwa, the numbers get interesting fast. Helium averages around $450/mcf. Gross in-ground = $450m. Assume 30% recovery, 50% net to HE1 → ~$67m (£55m) net value*. That’s already 3x today’s mcap on a single conservative scenario.
Now, add Colorado. That’s not a punt, it’s a producing asset that could generate near-term cash flow, reducing dilution risk and proving HE1 can operate beyond exploration.
Here’s the kicker: this is AIM. When sentiment flips, valuations don’t move by tidy multiples of NAV… they overshoot. We’ve all seen £20m caps hit £200m+ on less.
So yes, risk remains…. CLNs, timelines, execution. But with reserves booked and cash coming from Colorado, the current price looks less like “fair value” and more like “early entry.” And on AIM, when a real discovery meets momentum, it doesn’t walk higher… it runs. 😉
*Back of napkin maths, many variables to consider.