Realistic Path Forward for HE1 Based on Panmure Liberum Valuations14 Nov 2025 17:40
With the latest Panmure L note out, it’s finally possible to anchor expectations to something more concrete than speculation. Their updated 3.2p target price, reduced from 3.7p only due to dilution, gives us a proper baseline for where HE1 should be trading once the next phase of development is underway.
The important detail:
Panmure now value Tanzania (Itumbula) at 1.3p risked and Colorado (Galactica–Pegasus) at 1.0p risked. In other words, the market is currently assigning virtually no value to either asset, despite both progressing toward near-term catalysts.
If you break it down, a realistic timeline emerges:
🔵Colorado First Helium – Dec 2025
Panmure’s risked valuation for the Colorado asset alone sits at 1p.
A confirmation of first helium production should realistically put the share price into the 0.9p–1.1p zone. That’s simply the stock trading in line with its risked NAV, not optimism.
🔵Tanzania ESP Test & Development Visibility – Q1 2026
The ESP test is key for financing and for unlocking Tanzania’s 1.3p risked value.
A successful test plus clarity on development funding should logically move the price into the 1.4p–1.8p range. That’s still well below the un-risked value of Itumbula, which is estimated at several pence.
🔵Combined Re-Rate as Both Projects Advance – Q2 to Q3 2026
This is where the full Panmure target comes into play.
A de-risked Colorado, a progressing Tanzanian development, and financing visibility align with their 3.2p price target. This is the realistic upside for 2026 if Helium One executes on both fronts.
This isn’t blue-sky speculation; this is the analyst’s risk-weighted valuation, after accounting for dilution and funding needs. If either asset over performs, or if helium market conditions tighten further, the un-risked upside could be higher, but the above is already a credible pathway based on what’s known today.
At the moment, HE1 trades at a level that prices in almost none of this. The next 12–18 months contain multiple catalysts with clearly defined valuation impacts, and for the first time, the analyst notes give investors a grounded sense of what “realistic” looks like.
Colorado brings the company to 1p.
Tanzania brings the company to 1.5p+.
Both together justify 2–3p.
And Panmure’s 3.2p TP sits right in that zone.
If HE1 simply delivers what’s already planned, the re-rate potential is obvious. 🔥🧨🚀🚀🚀
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