Member Info for ps200306

Today's New York Times: Norway’s Supreme Court ... hears a challenge by environmental groups seeking to invalidate licenses for new oil exploration in the Arctic on constitutional grounds. Experts said it was unclear how the 15 judges in the case, which began on Wednesday, would rule.

It is among the highest-profile cases in a series of climate-change lawsuits brought by activists in Europe and elsewhere — one that Norwegian news outlets have described as “the case of the century.”

Quotable: The lawsuit “is our generation’s best shot to make sure a significant amount of carbon dioxide stays buried under the ground and never gets burned,” said Andreas Randoy, deputy head of Nature and Youth Norway, adding that a victory would mean “the beginning of the end of the oil age.”

Wrong, ST123. Graham isn't going to tell you in seven weeks (or any other time) what the company is worth.

ST123, you already told us that you averaged down. Did you think I forgot? But you DID get in when the share price was above 4p in July. Now, I presume you're not making the incredible statement that you intentionally bought HIGH, knowing that you would have to average down later. So you expected the share price to be higher than 4p when the dust settled. So what's your calculation on that? You KNOW how much gas there is. You KNOW how much the micro LNG plant is targeted to produce. You KNOW what the gas sale price has been reported as. You KNOW how many shares and warrants are on issue. I'm asking you to make best case assumptions, so it DOESN'T depend on what Graham says in the next seven weeks. Any ideas?

ST123: "Because you don’t know which is exactly the same as the rest of us. Mindless speculation is totally pointless at this stage as we will find out when Graham informs us by the year end... I have revised my expectations and now realise that the journey to first gas will be obviously delayed but I am fully prepared to stick it out an extra year or two."

You completely ignored my question. Assume everything works out and you get to first LNG. What will SOU be worth? That doesn't involve mindless speculation. The figures are already available. You're obviously calculating that SOU will be worth more than the 4p+ per share that you already paid. So how are you calculating it?

ST123, the points I listed are not speculation, they are historical fact. What exactly is this "real news" you are waiting for? Even if the news is good and everything goes according to plan, SOU will have an income stream kicking off in mid-2022. All of that income will go to pay down the debt due in 2025. SOU still won't have a pipeline deal. For that, should it ever happen, we can expect (based on last year's abortive deal) to suffer an additional 50% dilution on top of the 30% already taken since last year.

You can witter on about expected news all you like. You have never offered a quantitative assessment of SOU's actual prospects, and I don't believe you know how to assess them. I'm basing that on the naive questions you were asking here just a few short months ago. Go on, lay it out for us. For the sake of argument, assume your hero Graham manages to pull all the current irons out of the fire. What will SOU be worth?

SchoolTeacher123: "The only thing that matters now is that we get some good news"

Or bad news. That matters too. Tell you what, you keep hyping as you wish, and I'll read the tea leaves as I see fit.

ST123, I shouldn't critically analyse Graham because we have an important few weeks ahead??? Stand back, listen to yourself, and try to be a bit less "school teachery". My investment is *mine*, not Grahams's, and sure as hell not yours. SOU has been one very long slow motion train wreck for nearly four years now. I see no change of pattern so far under the new CEO. We have an inexplicably long exclusivity period with an unnamed partner on LNG purchase and financing, three quarters of which period has elapsed without anything other than vague mentions of progress.

If you had been here more than a wet week yourself, you would know this is reminiscent of another lengthy (and ultimately failed) set of discussions last year. Meanwhile we continue to print new shares and warrants like confetti -- a 50% increase since last year even before we get anywhere near a pipeline financing deal. I've realised by now that nothing can persuade you to take your head out of the sand, but please refrain from asking me to join you there.

SoundasaPound1, I'm not misquoting anyone. The quote is taken whole and complete from ST123's post to me at Wed 12:48 below. The thing you're accusing me of misquoting was his post to pduk at Wed 17:41, not to me. But if I were to address that one too, I would say this has little to do with giving Graham the benefit of the doubt. It is about recognising the dire straits that SOU is in. ST123, ironically seems to acknowledge that. In his defence of Graham he states that the tax bill would be a challenge for any CEO. Yes it would, as would the other huge hurdle: lack of financing.

ST123: "We were promised news on these issues by the end of the year and that’s what Graham will deliver."

That's a completely vacuous statement. SOU can't end their exclusivity arrangement without updating the market, so of COURSE there's going to be news by the end of year, good or bad.

The only actual news we've had: 1) We've signed heads of terms with an unnamed Moroccan conglomerate and entered into further discussions, 2) we've been slapped with a tax bill, 3) the bondholders are going to consider a restructuring proposal, under which they get an extra 20% of the company.

There's been little mention of actual financing, without which we are dead in the water. We've been here before. Listen to hype at your peril.

"Ps200306 can now provide an updated list of whom they filter on your que."

Happy to. I stopped filtering a long time back when most of the trolls disappeared. I'd like to say it's because they saw sense, but it was probably more a case of being smacked in the face by reality.

"We? Ps200306 has millions of shares and posts at every hour? Hmm. "

I'd respond, except I can't even figure out what you're accusing me of. I DO have millions of shares. I've posted on SOU once every two days on average in the last month, much of it in response to another particular ramper who has since disappeared.

"Now that we are where we are the small percentage points don’t matter."

You can say that again! Since we started nattering about it we've suffered a one third dilution without ANY deal done.

Actually, there are THREE facts: There is a awful lot of recoverable gas, we have the rights to 47.5% of it, and we don't have the money to access ANY of it.

More Malcy: "Elsewhere I feel that all is going pretty well behind the scenes at Sound with the new management getting stuck into operational matters and looking increasingly likely to deliver the goods for shareholders."

He's havin' a larf.

Malcy seems to have missed that the warrants won't bring in *any* money when SOU needs it most. Nobody is going to pay double the current share price to exercise their warrants. They can do it any time out to mid-2025 without taking any risk. At that point they can bag 15% of the company for a pittance of 5 million. That doesn't do anything to avert a funding cliff next April.

"the Company is pleased to announce that negotiations are advancing and progressing positively..."

Yeah, we've heard that for the entire 17 months since the company announced it would monetise the existing assets. We're "progressing positively" ... but your equity isn't. There are 50% more shares + warrants on issue since back then. And that's before we even figure out where the required funding is coming from. Yes, it's is a glass half empty attitude, but at this point it's reasonable to say "show us the money". Vague announcements of positive progression devoid of details don't cut it anymore.

Correct, ericnat, and because this turkey is not going to spike above 5p in the next year with all the uncertainty hanging over SOU, the warrants will not be exercised and will be no use in terms of covering operating costs next year. We will still be scraping the bottom of the barrel looking for funds in April. The warrant holders won't pounce unless and until there is a much more substantial improvement.

But I'm certain there'll be some other nebulous announcement about progress before they pass the hat around again in April. If you look back you can see it's the standard modus operandi. There's the 15% dilution today, the 15% dilution back in July, the 7% or so back last December, another one the previous June (back when SOU could actually raise significant funds for a mere 2% dilution at an SP of 10p). Every raise was on the back of announcements of pending deals, exclusivity arrangements, monetisation of assets. Every one so far has turned out to be nothing but smoke rings. If this ever comes to fruition we will be VERY lucky if SOU's share of the Horst gas is worth 5p/share. With an average of more than three times that, I know when I've been suckered. No LTH is ever getting their money back here.

When I predicted there would be ambiguous good news I didn't think it would be the very same day! This RNS is cr@p. Why would the bondholders take 2% going forward on a bond that has been happily paying 5%? It's a "take it or leave it or we're bust" ultimatum. As a sop to the holders they get some cheap warrants, and shareholders suffer yet another 15% dilution for a relative pittance. And none of it even yields any cash to SOU during the critical period between now and end of next year. How much of SOU will actually be left in the event that we make it to that point? The rest of the RNS amounts to "things are progressing" ... the same as we've been hearing for many months, and is frankly getting a bit tired at this stage. I will admit that this solves one of SOU's many problems for the moment. Now we need financing for Phase 1, financing for ongoing operations after April, finalising the offtake agreement, and sorting the tax bill. Still a mountain to climb and shareholder value likely getting tossed away along the way like a mountaineering litter lout.

The Providence Twitter account has certainly sprung to life. Not a single tweet for six months from early April to mid October, then nine in the last two weeks. Hopefully it signifies plenty of real world activity happening in the background.