Member Info for ps200306

Looks like he only bought them in July (or, at least, the portion that took him above 3%). A quick Google suggests he's a business owner who has taken substantial stakes in multiple companies. He may well have just set a target of doubling his stake, which he would have achieved since the summer. Not everyone's here for the long haul.

False alarm. Providence seems to have repudiated the Business Post article, while saying it's still in talks with SpotOn. My guess is news just got out a bit ahead of time. I expect the SP to take a hit today.

Looks like well orchestrated news release. Weekly Tweets throughout November extolling the virtues of Ballyroe, latest one yesterday. After hours news release today announcing farmout. RNS required tomorrow, with market primed for good news. Fantastic progress, can't wait to see the details. If Linn has pulled this off it will be nothing short of miraculous in his 11 month tenure. Pageant et al. will just be kicking themselves they didn't jettison that other perma-tanned wastrel earlier.

Don't care about the price after farm out. Looking for 80p minimum within 18 months. Only thing that matters is the percentage retained by PVR.

Clearly some people getting skittish here. Personally I'm not worried. The first rule of projects is that they expand to fill the time available. If they gave themselves an extension, they will use it. I expect to see an update by Monday or Tuesday. In the meantime Linn's tweet seems designed to say "don't worry, it's coming".

Flippancy aside ... no.

My dream is to see 12p so I can exit with a "mere" 160k loss. But I think the chances are slim.

Three years?? I'll sell you any amount you want at 40p RIGHT NOW!

hoper -- your question is reasonable. PVR's track record on getting B'roe developed is abysmal. Part of that is because The Bronze decided to to wildcatting in the wild Atlantic instead of focussing on developing the assets he had. His questionable priorities are exemplified by his sponsorship of the Irish Olympic sailing team with shareholder money when PVR had no income. Hopefully those days are behind us.

The funding element of the current farmout is different from any previous attempts. The APEC effort was targeting full field development with a consequent eye-watering funding requirements from the Chinese backers. The present effort targets an early phased approach, funded by a) Norwegian credit export, b) supplier payments partially deferred until production, c) a bond. The credit requirements are much lower than for the APEC version. Payback time is anticipated to be just one year, on a relatively low risk development. I went back and picked over the most recent Linn presentation in detail, and the estimates of recovery rates and value are really (and I mean *really*) conservative. None of this is a guarantee that the funding will come through. But perhaps the default pessimism that would have attached to any To'R effort is no longer warranted.

P.S. One thing that had escaped me from the Linn presentation before is that the 'A' site is the most likely initially drilling site. People here have been talking about depending on site survey approval for the up-dip 'K' site. In fact, the more likely site is already surveyed and is drill-ready.

hoper, as you know, no agreement has been announced, otherwise we wouldn't be here talking about when the farmout will complete. But Linn has openly talked about development funding coming from the Norwegian export credit facility. Put that together with the recent RNS: "[PVR] is finalising the commercial terms of a farm-out of the Barryroe licence with SpotOn Energy ... The farmout is structured to ensure that the development is fully funded and includes an Early Development Scheme (EDS) work programme for the Barryroe oil and gas field ..."

1cag, lest that last post seemed unduly optimistic, obviously I agree that it's curtains for Barryroe if the farmout deal is not consummated. For that we can only wait and see. Unlike you, I won't be the least bit worried if we hear nothing by the middle of this week. In fact, I'd expect them to use every moment available including next weekend. An RNS on Tuesday 1st December would suit me fine. I've got some dividends arriving at the weekend and could do with one last dip on the 30th ;-)

In any case, a farmout announcement is not the whole story and won't be the end of it. We don't know what percent PVR will retain -- I hardly dare to hope it's 40%, but even 20% would do quite nicely. And at the very least there will be still a bond to raise, permits required, surveys to do etc. etc. Linn seems committed to a rapid development program, which is necessary of course -- time is money. The farmout is the first hurdle. If that's achieved I'm gonna relax and assume we are on the way to a 20-bagger.

1cag and (no) hoper, I thought I was a perennial pessimist but you guys take the biscuit. SpotOn are not APEC. The APEC farmout was actually agreed, but the financial part was always murky and ultimately fell to pieces. From what we know, the financing element of the SpotOn deal is progressing alongside the technicals. The shape of it has already been announced. 80% to come from the Norwegian export credit facility which, far from being opaque like the Chinese, is a huge operation that issued many times the value of the Barryroe Phase 1 development in 2019 alone ( https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/observatories/emcc/erm/support-instrument/export-credit-norway ). 20% to come from a bond which I would expect -- if this farmout is completed -- to be a breeze to get away.

As for Barryroe not having been proved commercial there is only one way to ultimately prove that, and that is for lots of black sticky stuff to actually come out of the seabed. Even after development, the ultimate potential of a field is not known until the fat lady has sung ... or at least until peak extraction rate has been reached. Ongoing reserve revisions are the norm for any petroleum basin. But the 2012 48/24-10z exploration well was a dinger. It was tested at 6000 boe/day of highly mobile light oil from two separate intervals in a single vertical well. And that test was limited by equipment -- it was estimated that 10,000 boe/day would have been achievable. On its own that would more than pay for FPSO operations. And that's without any horizontal drilling, which is where the real bonanza could be expected. Phase 1 development calls for three horizontal wells. Commerciality is the absolute last thing that would concern me about Barryroe.

1cag, two things AL has achieved: 1) he rescued PVR from the rocks on which TOR had left it to founder. PVR was out of cash and bust within a month when the raise was done in April. Yes, the dilution was a sting for shareholders but an existential threat was averted and there is a decent prospect of future operating cash from the warrants issued at the same time; 2) he got the farmout underway with SpotOn and actually got them to part with some money, more than TOR ever managed.

Linn did both of those in less than three months on the job and at the height of the pandemic, so to say he has achieved nothing is flat out wrong. You'll have noticed that the share price hit 1p at the bottom of the market. Anyone brave enough to take punt at those low levels already has a multibagger. Yes, those gains will be fleeting unless Linn ultimately brings home the bacon. Don't know about you, but I'm a little more inclined to "watch this space" now than when The Bronze murdered that phrase and left it lying face down in a ditch.

It's last chance saloon for PVR if the farmout doesn't happen, obviously. It's a binary bet. If the farmout goes ahead the potential is mind boggling especially if PVR retain the percentage that has been bandied about.

Even with the 45% dilution due to the shares and all warrants issued in the last raise, it has the potential to be worth well over $1.50 per share without any oil price increase, double that at pre-pandemic prices and double again at historic prices. That's without the potential for further discovery in the Jurassic which could double it yet again, not to mention PVR's other Celtic sea interests. If all went well we are talking telephone numbers. Even the most modest success makes it a ten bagger.

So then it all boils down to how much faith do you have in Alan Linn and SpotOn. So far he has talked a good talk. He has moved things along further in ten months than The Bronze did in many years. Still, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. And unless everything is agreed, your investment is toast. Personally, I'm loading up on PVR as fast as I can. Added another 250k yesterday.

More chartist voodoo. The last guy on here who peered into the Bollinger tea leaves got it wrong twenty-five times in a row.

ericnat: "Now this is a quick Calculation for the new visitors to the BB.
Let’s say we get $8.5 a scf (I know that is a little high) If the production rate at Horst is 66MScf/day thats 8.5 X 66000 = $561k per Day. (Pipeline in place)
561 X 365 = 204.7 million a year.
10 years production = 2.04 Billion.
Sounds Share 47.5% X 204 billion = 950 Million for the 10 years production
Cost for the BOOT is a maximum of 45 million a year, Sounds share is 21 million Per annum.
Other Capex and and Opex lets say sounds share is 21 million per annum. Therefore a total of 42 million a year cost. That gives Sound over 10 years 950 – 420 million = $530 million
$530 converted to Sterling £400million EBITDA.
Gives approx 20p + a share.
Also over the 10 years that works out at 240bcf. That is less than our recoverable reserves."

Except that you have not applied any NPV discount. Using your numbers I actually get 29p/share. But applying a 10% NPV discount to the cashflows this drops to 17p. And that's assuming the pipeline income starts in year 1. In the more realistic best case, we get to first LNG inside 2 years and tread water for another 2 while the pipeline is developed. Starting full field production in 4 years gives an NPV of 12 or 13p. Don't get me wrong, I'd bite yer hand off for it.

That was cleared up a year ago.

https://www.gov.ie/en/policy-information/bf1b50-oil-and-gas-exploration-and-production/#recent-policy-developments

".... where did you get £6 from .... that would mean PVR's 40pc share has a value of £6billion plus ......get a life man ..."

Yep, £6 billion is what PVR's share is worth at $50/bbl. That's assuming it's free to get out of the ground and you apply no other costs or NPV discount. Foolish assumptions of course. But then add in a load more oil from the Jurassic and hike the oil price. You can get to pretty much any number you want. I was having a bit of a dig people who come on here asking for a target price in the complete absence of context. How long is a piece of string?

£6

Today's Indo: https://amp.independent.ie/business/irish/ireland-could-breach-eu-gas-supply-security-requirements-39712791.html

Concerns coming from DCCAE itself:

“Ireland’s gas import dependency is expected to increase from over 50pc in 2019 to circa 80pc by the middle of the decade and to over 90pc import dependence by 2030,” the Department added. It said that all of Ireland’s natural gas imports are sourced via two pipelines from a single supply point at Moffat in Scotland, “with no alternative import routes”.

ST123, all I can say is you display an astonishing lack of curiousity about the future share price.