The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
"When this finally breaks 3p, it just can't seem to break and hold above that mark."
Bazillions of shares have traded at low values in the past two years. While 3p is a long way short of breakeven for many, it is 100+% profit for others. That selling pressure is likely to constrain the rate of SP increases. Given the history, a lot of people will take the money and run. Definitive Phase 2 news is needed for further rises and that will likely be quite a while, IMO.
"More than half Ireland’s electricity was generated from natural gas in April, while wind generation accounted to around one-third, according to figures provided by Gas Networks Ireland. Gas generated 52 per cent of Ireland’s electricity last month, up from 41 per cent in March, arising from a “fall off in wind” which gas compensated for, according to the utility body." -- Biz Post
Lowest ever closing price was 1.1p on 19/03/2020. Price only ever under 1.5p for seven trading days around that time, and under 2p for a further 15 days up to early April 2020. Fair play to you if you bought all your shares at that time, but you've been posting as Manyana since August 2018 when the SP was 11p, and as Sobeit for a long time before that. An average of "around 1p" sounds pretty impressive and/or impossible unless you have a truly vast number.
Actually, beginning to feel a bit sorry for some of the crypto nuts. Have a look at the reddit for the Luna coin. Genuinely suicidal stories, and helpline numbers are provided.
https://www.reddit.com/r/terraluna/
Luna fell 95% in 5 days .... and then *another* 99% in one day! Down more than 99.99% from all time high a month ago. It has triggered a panic across crypto markets whose combined value has fallen by well over *two trillion dollars* since November, 35% of that in the last week alone. Nearly $200 billion has been destroyed every day this week! Schadenfreude seems inappropriate ... lotta people gonna be hurting.
STD123: "anyone losing £600,000 on this share is in no position to lecture anyone."
Go on, then. Tell is about all the moolah you made when the share price hit 6-10p in June 2021 just like you predicted. LOL. Unlike you I haven't been ramping this share for two years while losing money.
Utilityone1's sole point was that if the tax bill is *not* spurious then it will have to be paid and *ought* to be paid. Ktf and STD123 turned that into a moralistic lecture on letting Moroccans eat cake. Pair of toerags.
Had to laugh, thinking of our dearly departed resident troll TheShen / GuntherGobdaw. According to him and the "savvy investors" at the Miami Bitcoin conference just a month ago, renewable energy would be springboarded by crypto mining operations. I warned him that when the dam broke on overvalued tech stocks, that crypto would get slaughtered too.
Well ... Bitcoin is down 35% since the conference (just five weeks ago, remember), and 58% since its high in November. Dogecoin is down 44% since the conference and 88% since Elon Musk hyped it on Saturday Night Live a year ago. The share price of Coinbase, the online crypto platform, is down 68% since the conference, and 85% from its high last November.
Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, spoke at the Bitcoin conference and predicted that BTC was going to $1m by 2030. LOL. She just bought half a million Coinbase shares on the dip. We'll see how that works out. By the way, her ARK fund which invests in tech stocks is down 78% from its high. I believe this is what she refers to this as "taking advantage of volatility during corrections".
One thing Gunther picked right -- the right time to take a hike! ;-)
Utility, I wouldn't waste too much breath on that pair. Both clearly have a "let them eat cake" attitude to Moroccans. By the way, you are correct about STD123's predictions despite his protestations. But then, his most recent post has so many failures of logic in a single post that one shouldn't really expect much in the way of either truth or reason.
Sleepy and the turf wars:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/16Mj88UV8EKTPKMAyEvAfco8pun-_F6Xp/view?usp=sharing
In spite of selling most of my holding a year ago, I still probably have more invested than many here. So no, I don't want SOU to fail. I'm just bemused by seeing so many unhatched chickens being counted. Most of the news we've had so far has been signposted for the past two years. Revenue from LNG will allows SOU to pay its bills and nothing more. It is worth zero on the share price. Phase 2 is required for the SP Angel prediction to materialise. And we need to see what combination of debt and equity finance is secured. The amount required is a significant multiple of current market cap, so the conditions could be onerous. I'm never getting my money back even without further major dilution, so I admit I have a somewhat detached interest in all this. But I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade either. There could be a ton of upside in SOU still (though there's the problem of not having any money for drilling). A lot of things have to come together for that. I don't have much time for the constant unbacked assertions that the share price is going to fly because "reasons".
Biz Post: "Energy use increased 4.3 per cent last year and emissions related to that increased energy use increased disproportionately, by 6.3 per cent, according to figures from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI). The disproportionate emissions increase is due to use of fossil fuels. A rebound in demand for oil-products was reported particularly for transport as travel restrictions eased. The figures underline the challenges arising from Ireland’s high dependency on imported fossil fuels, the SEAI said. Low-wind periods in 2021 and less rain for hydro-generation meant that less of our electricity came from renewable sources."
From the Business Post ESG briefing: McDonald warns of ‘damaging cliff edges’ in energy transition
There is little to be gained from “unmanageable” and “damaging cliff edges” in the energy transition, Mary Lou McDonald has said in a rare speech by the Sinn Féin leader on the party’s policy on the issue.
Speaking at the Business Post National Energy Summit last week, McDonald’s keynote address outlined the party’s position on upgrading Ireland’s power grid, ensuring domestic energy security; supporting industry and workers through a just transition; scaling up Ireland’s offshore wind and hydrogen sectors, and prioritising renewable energy projects in the planning system due to their strategic importance.
McDonald played up the potential of Ireland’s offshore renewable energy resources and said Sinn Féin would support the industry to make Ireland a major international exporter of clean energy.
“If we get this right, we can transform not just energy supply and security, but we can transform Ireland’s economic model,” McDonald said.
She said that in the immediate term, gas would continue to play a role in the energy system, but that the goal was a “fossil-free future”. She described the government’s 2030 climate targets as “ambitious” but added that they were also achievable. She said the country could “not afford to miss this target or lose any more time”.
She expressed concern, however, about elements of the urgent action and hard decisions others believe to be required on the issue.
“There is very little to be gained in creating unmanageable, damaging cliff-edges for our people or for industry as we navigate our way to a successful and just transition for everyone,” she said.
The government recently defeated a Sinn Féin motion that sought to scrap plans to restrict the sale of turf. The party has also campaigned against the planned carbon tax increase in May.
“As we advance change, the wheels of industry must continue to turn, and workers and families must be able to light and heat their homes . . . the focus must be on creating alternatives that allow for real change,” McDonald said.
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Does that mean Sinn Féin would be in favour of Barryroe to avoid a ‘damaging cliff edge’? Not on yer nelly. All politicians talk out of both sides of their mouth but the populist Shinners make it a fine art. So they will roast the Greens over the turf issue because that's good for the rural vote, but they will still toe the line on climate because it's a popular issue. In any case, the next election is still nearly three years away. Sleepy is in control until then and he is LOVING the energy crunch. Irish energy WILL fall off a cliff, but he'll be ready to trot out plenty of ass-covering excuses for his gross mismanagement.
Another 5% of the company chipped away. At least most of it is tied to share price performance. SP Angel's target price is holding steady at 8.2p. They project first Phase 2 gas at the start of 2025. I guess that's based on FID this year and 24 month pipeline construction. A six month slippage in FID and higher end of construction estimate at 30 months would push it to 2026. Still, hope springs eternal.
The weak low pressure system that moved over us at the weekend produced the only wind output greater than 1 GW for the past 7 days, and that only lasted for 19 hours. At 6am this morning with the country shrouded in fog it was at 9 MW ... a mere 0.2% of installed capacity.
Graham was also working hard to get Phase 1 FID by end of 2020 and in the end he was off by more than a year. And the 2020 projection was when Afriquia were already in the picture and negotiations were "at an advanced stage". The idea of a 2022 FID for a project that is ten times larger sounds extremely fanciful to me. There has not yet even been news of a lead investor, nor do we have any idea what the terms would be. At the start of last year I opined that first Phase 2 gas was unlikely to be before 2025. I would now guess it is very unlikely before 2026, possibly 2027. SOU has a lot of hurdles to jump between now and then.
goza172: "PS, you are the most negative person on this board by a mile!"
Perhaps because I seem to be the only person that sticks to quotes from SOU's own statements and projections. This board is replete with people plucking numbers from their back passages. All the drive-by comments in the last two years about a 10p, 20p, 30p SP disappear under the radar time after time, with nobody thinking to call the rampers to task. Nope, the annoyed comments are reserved for the guy who keeps pointing to the company's own statements. Just today you have someone who has been shamelessly ramping for two years (even though they are down on their investment) claiming that things will turn around on first Phase 1 gas. No, all of Phase 1 gas has already been priced in, and according to SOU's own projections is worth zero when netted against debt. How do people get away with these ramptastic comments? And, no disrespect intended, I see you were criticising people for negativity just in the last 10 days over on Empyrean when it turned out they were right and the SP has been slaughtered. Anyway, I am just one punter with no special insights, feel free to ignore.
The Goobdaw seems to have departed once again, taking all his posts and any threads he started with him. Maybe he'll stay away this time, though I won't hold my breath.