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On the other hand, how would it look if Ryan played hardball on lots of sectoral targets and then granted the lease on Barryroe? There would be even more uproar. That's why there's no possibility he is going to sign it off. He needs to be either pushed out or sued for Barryroe to have a chance.
The existing government guidance for oil exploration (from some years back) says the government has a very supportive stance. Existing legislation allows current licenses to be progressed. Ryan cannot square that circle. He has forgotten the "supportive" part. His tactic is to bury his head in the sand. He has also strongly suggested (e.g. to the Seanad) that no oil discoveries even EXIST. Hopefully Menton is getting ready to sue, but even at that it's a long shot.
Menton said "within 90 days" back in April. He was quoted in the Business Post of April 24th, and 90 days since then is up next week. However, it would be silly to see that as a deadline as I don't see how Menton or anyone else can possibly know. Nor did he tell us how he can possibly know. So I'm inclined to treat it as blowing smoke up our a$$es. The only intriguing fact is that he picked this month to appoint an interim CEO, having decided it was not worth paying one for the past ten months. That, along with the fundraise, might be viewed as part of a demonstration that PVR is a going concern before the LU can be granted. But while it might be a necessary prerequisite we have nothing so far to suggest that it is a *sufficient* one. It's quite possible the LU will *never* be granted.
ericnat, I hope you are right. There's no doubt in my mind that if Morocco makes the tax charge "stick" that Sound Energy Plc will be liable for it -- they can't evade it just because SEMS is a dormant subsidiary. SOU's case, of course, is that there wasn't a transfer of ANY assets, not even intangible ones. The license relinquished by SEMS was a different one to the one obtained by SEME (Tendrara Lakhbir exploration permits vs. Greater Tendrara exploration permits). To my limited understanding, that always looked like a reasonable case. And even were it not, surely a company gets taxed on its *profits*. SOU made no sort of capital gain on these transactions and has had no production revenue. The best summary is probably still the RNS from June of last year:
https://markets.ft.com/data/announce/full?dockey=1323-14998057-7A0VEIVDU4UKCU6KCA011A5JRH
If the tax is legitimately due you have to wonder what sort of advice SOU were getting, and indeed why they needed to monkey around with the corporate structure. I noticed that SEMS is registered in Rabat while SEME is registered in London. Did the Moroccans get antsy because of a perception that SOU was trying to move assets to a different jurisdiction? I've no idea, just wondering out loud.
Let's face it, even if Ryan is told to get off his high horse it will be to permit the Shannon LNG terminal. It would take the same amount of time to build as Barryroe would take to get to production, but gas is probably a higher priority as oil can already be shipped in by tanker. Of course, if we had any strategic sense we'd develop not only Barryroe but the adjacent OPL/1 license area which potentially holds lots of gas. But it's not going to happen.
The Dáil goes on summer recess from tomorrow lunch time. Menton's 90 days expires at the end of next week. AGM would normally be the following week but no date was mentioned in the annual report. The appointment of a new CEO could mean something is astir ... but definitely not holding my breath.
Orbilune, the original well was a simple vertical well, not suitable for production. In any case they can't go back to it or anywhere else without the lease undertaking they are looking for, and additional permits besides.
Correct, it's no Moroccan carpet. The larger part of the SEME charge was dropped as it was agreed it would represent double taxation. This is just the residual part covering an alleged disposal of assets to Schlumberger. The remaining (much larger) SEMS tax bill is still in the offing.
More press mentions:
Ian Guider in the Business Post: "Barryroe might be Providence’s last chance to strike it lucky. The oil prospector has been in business in one guise or another for 40 years. Will Barryroe finally repay investor loyalty or has government appetite for fossil fuel prospecting passed?"
Manyana: "I love the way you read my posts so assiduously and then comment."
No you don't. If you did, you'd be defending them against my claims of idiocy. But you can't.
It's a discussion board -- if you don't want your posts to be read, don't post. Like I said a long time ago, I won't engage with your childish jibes, but it needs pointing out when you make outrageously misleading claims about PVR as you are wont to do. Over and out.
Manyana: "The license to drill was going to apply to a drill in 2023 so we still have time before then to get the approval."
It's not a license to drill. It's a petroleum lease undertaking. As per Linn, it would still take about a year to put together the Environmental Impact Assessment for a drill, and a separate permission to actually commence drilling would still be required. If PVR doesn't get their lease undertaking NOW, there will be no drilling next year.
Manyana: "Providence could wait until then and then seek funding from the EU for the drill and development."
SERIOUSLY, what colour is the sky on your planet? The EU doesn't hand out money for drilling oil wells. The very idea is laughable. The taxonomy for sustainable activities doesn't change this one iota. From the horses mouth (ec.europa.eu):
"The Taxonomy is not an instrument of EU energy policy. It is a tool to increase transparency in financial markets for private sector sustainable investments. It does not mandate investments and does not prevent any economic sector from receiving investments. Member States remain fully responsible and competent for deciding their own energy mix and for striking the appropriate balance – in terms of energy security, energy price stability and their commitment to decarbonisation and climate neutrality. The Taxonomy is an important element in the sustainable finance toolkit to help fund the Green Deal."
Sometimes I firkin' despair at the delusional outlooks on this board.
"Licence next week ..."
We have absolutely no reason to think there is a decision imminent except for an off-the-cuff remark from the chairman back in April, backed up by precisely ZERO justification. He has no influence over the powers-that-be, and may just have been told that there is 90 days worth of bureaucracy to go before a decision can be made. It's still up to Ryan to sign it off, and we can be pretty sure Ryan would prefer to shave his gonads with a rusty sickle than permit the extraction of oil in Irish waters.
Also, intuition, experience and common sense should tell you that something that was predicted for "within 90 days" which hasn't come to pass after 85 days is probably delayed or deferred or wasn't a good prediction to begin with. The idea that Menton could predict things outside his control with to-the-minute accuracy is highly improbable. I'd say there's a 50-50 chance that PVR will have to resort to law to try to budge Ryan. That said, I am not as confident about this assertion as I am about the fact that the EU doesn't dish out free money for drilling! You have to laugh, otherwise you'd cry ;-)
I don't think the share price is down because of anyone playing the market. It's due to lack of liquidity. Apart from brief spurts of buying on positive news, the volumes being traded have been lacklustre for a very long time. A positive spin would say that nobody wants to relinquish their golden tickets. A negative spin would say nobody's interested. Regardless, the time when value can't be ignored will be when SOU is paying a dividend from cash flows. That will be some time between 2025 and 2027.
Be careful what you wish for. There is a small but non-zero chance that FF or FG will have the backbone to stand up to Ryan on his catastrophic energy policies. The populist leftwing SF are unlikely to rock the boat and would pander to popular green sentiment even without the Greens in power. Barryroe's best chance (and it's a slim one) are with the current set of muppets.
"We've all heard the stories of children digging pits in the DRC in Africa searching for cobalt, However even in more structured countries our renewable needs are destroying whole areas.
https://news.sky.com/video/battle-for-chiles-critical-minerals-12643766 "
Onshore wind turbines use 4 to 6 times as much copper per installed megawatt as fossil fuel plants. Offshore wind needs 7 to 10 times as much. Solar PV uses 11 to 40 times as much! Only about a quarter of copper for wind power is in the turbine itself. 50-60% is for cabling. The rest is needed for transformers, components etc. Then consider that Ryan wants to build 30 GW of wind -- five times current capacity -- as a buffer and exportable commodity. Copper usage will easily go up by a factor of 20. Then there's all the concrete, steel, eye-watering amounts of rare earth elements, etc. for wind turbines. The world's largest turbines are now approach 1000 ft in height. And that's before we get to the planned increased use of electric power for heating and transport, lithium for batteries etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper_in_renewable_energy
https://www.americanexperiment.org/so-you-want-wind-turbines-but-dont-want-copper-mines/
https://www.woodmac.com/press-releases/global-wind-turbine-fleet-to-consume-over-5.5mt-of-copper-by-2028/
https://www.copper.org/environment/sustainable-energy/renewables/
I went reading about the state of hydrogen infrastructure when I first heard Ryan bloviating about it. It is years, if not decades away from being ready for prime time. Hydrogen can be added to natural gas in small quantities in existing generating plant. Beyond that its flame front propagates too rapidly and causes the equivalent of a backfire. Fully hydrogen burning plant is possible but the City of Los Angeles (for example) is planning one for 2045.
Then there are hydrogen fuel cells which so far are not used for large scale stationary power applications. They would have to scale up by a factor of a thousand by 2030 to make a dent, and another factor of 6-7 by 2050.
https://www.reutersevents.com/renewables/renewables/order-magnitude-changes-needed-large-scale-hydrogen
On top of that, add the cost of the new infrastructure for generating, storing, and transporting hydrogen. That's in addition to all the added cost for wind turbines and the added grid capacity to connect them. You are adding multiple layers of overhead to generate the same power.
Ryan is happy to criticise immature technologies that he doesn't like (modular nukes, CCS etc.) but he is literally betting the farm on a different set of non-existent technologies (grid-scale batteries, hydrogen). I genuinely believe he is a dangerous nutcase who has no business directing energy policy in a first world country.
Encouraging that they are not anticipating further dilution for either Phase 2 or drilling. There'll still be a raise next year for G&A and there's a stack of warrants outstanding, plus some debt due before first LNG revenue, but maybe not too bad.
Domdrew, if I had any idea what I was talking about I wouldn't have invested here. Happy to be educated if you have anything to share?