Member Info for ProfessorZ

If next week's not an improvement then we're all doomed....

A very red day indeed - certainly nothing in my portfolio or watchlist was blue this morning, so not surprised we lost ground either, but that was quite a drop and they look very cheap this morning particularly as nothing fundamental has changed. This occasional pruning exercise is important for a healthy market as I'm sure we are all aware, and there is a huge up-side, being that there are large amounts of equity funding needing to find a new home. When all is said and done, a large number of these shares are tightly held, so market sentiment probably had a lot to do with the drop this morning, which could easily have been amplified by selling into it.

The oil produced sells at a premium to WT and BC

An interesting read Escovido, personally I don't subscribe to charts in themselves, but as you suggested, when you examine the text explaining the movements, it all falls into place - there is always a reason for a price movement, a trigger event. The trigger increases volume, then market forces take over. All a chart is doing is to fit a chain of events into a visually understandable format - we certainly could fit the cup and handle and with the absence of short selling, it would give this stock a bump-up compared to most for the bulls amongst us. There are many of us who have been waiting very patiently here - we have seen what can happen to this stock at higher volumes. Fundamentally the numbers haven't changed significantly, in fact the odds of a similar or even better increase have improved. We know how sticky this stock was to original holders - they held during the takeover when they could have easily made significant gains by selling RPG and purchasing PLE stock. We know that during the last increase Maven sold - they are no longer there to dampen the next rise. Add to the fact that arguably we are starting from a base in which we are undervalued, things could get very tasty indeed!

I think it is that time of year - bonuses. Coupled with an anticipated positive early 2018 news-flow, it makes the stock a relatively attractive short term prospect.

Why are the best posts always removed?

To you all, and a happy and prosperous new year!

http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/mainindex/ipmpnews.aspx?id=003002946 Very positive signs indeed!

I'm not so sure - we know this has the legs to climb well beyond 0.5 and it moved swiftly after the UK launch. I am interested to see how the Recordati launch goes, particularly their pricing policy - £20 per can appears to be well within the recreational market whereas the £100 market was out of reach for the majority. The European position will undoubtedly inform the value regarding the rest of the world and then the US. 0.5 is easily achievable in my opinion, in fact we should be breaking new 18 month highs given the minimal dilution. We'll soon see.

Another month passes and another closer to the launch. Clearly things are beginning to get exciting. With a more aggressive and, to be honest, more sensible starting price in the UK, I am impatient to see what Recordati are going to do when we finally get a proper launch. UK launch was low profile to say the least - the price drop for slipped below the radar - but at least the Daily Mail has something on it; http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5133139/Price-spray-help-men-10-times-longer-slashed.html

Thanks Pom.

The milestone news was arguably more significant than the UK soft launch (which was ALWAYS going to happen). True, the share price has recovered substantially over a month, but there is a major question mark in my mind as to why the share price rose so suddenly about a year ago. Recent volumes peaked at 150m, being a quarter of the 600m seen on both 13th and 14th November 2016. We know that Maven exited at that time which added to volumes, but they sold into a continually rising price suggesting substantial demand. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, and it was just RP's turn, but something unusual took place. From an operational perspective things are most certainly looking more positive and I am delighted to see the colour of Recordati's money as this is as firm a commitment as we have ever seen in the short term future of Fortacin, and the best confirmation that Recordati are serious about the launch. Pomander, I was extremely interested to read your 8:07 post and I would be grateful if you could indulge me with your recent findings (particularly your sixth paragraph), as there appears to have been some other 'developments' that I missed this week. My mind has been rather occupied on other matters recently, so I apologise if my question appears somewhat lazy.

A pleasant (not a large, long-tailed gamebird) market reaction yesterday. However I left in the same camp as some others, speculating as to what triggered the staggering volumes last November. Given that the price rose at the same time Maven disposed of their holding, it all seems a bit unusual. The question I have about a stake-builder is how they could evade the disclosure requirements for so long, and what the ramifications would be down the line if they launched a bid in a position where they had breached a reporting threshold. However, I would not imagine these things to be insurmountable, nor a particular concern to a Chinese consortium. Another question I have is why do Regent Pacific not look to expand their portfolio? The DBC aside, there has been no activity in an area where I would expect significant investment. As a company this is very high risk, it is in need of diversification and that is why I am wondering if it is a conscious decision as to why the directors are pursuing this singular goal of commercialising Fortacin and getting it ready for the US market? The announcement yesterday indicated that it was the first of a stream of announcements - the signing of the revised agreement will accompany the 4m euro payment. The European launch is anticipated as being the catalyst for other licensing agreements. If yesterday was the 'true' market reaction, I just cannot get my head around the UK launch trading volumes based upon a known event. One thing I will say about this share, it is far from boring and appears to have a lot to offer.

I agree, excellent news and some very positive signs. Recordati have negotiated a better deal on the face of things with lower initial payments, but as Pom spotted, they are paying for some of the development costs and if you look at the detail, if figures for the first three years are in line with original projections, the original contract payments will be made which effectively transfers some of the risk from Recordati to Regent. It is a case of 'the devil is in the detail' and in this case, the detail actually favours us. There is no doubt that this stock is tightly held and if there is a run, we will see the share price rise sharply. Last year we saw this after the UK launch - I still think that there was a single entity behind the movement given, amongst other things, the volume traded and the fact that the news was not new. It's been a beautiful day, let us see how the market reacts, I shall be sleeping through the majority of the trading in the knowledge that my investment is significantly de-risked albeit we still haven't actually signed anything yet. In the morning I shall be most curious to see what my holding is worth on paper!

It is glorious.

Alquemie, are there any examples of this marketing approach elsewhere? Pom, I share your frustration - If only JG had the same commercial acumen as your car rental company. What if it rains on the day you are returning it?

Ditto the last paragraph. It disturbs me as to the capabilities of JG - a complete disregard for events. More effort was made in the PLE takeover than it was developing the commercial realities that we have all bought into - I do think RP taking over PLE was a sensible move, but we have now exhausted the last of the RP cash reserves and we are Vulnerable with a capital V. Is he really this incompetent? Surely JM would never have him in his team if he was as pathetic as he appears? I am furious after reading your post. Don't get me wrong, it is an excellent one and I thank you for pulling it all together, but it highlights how we have all been taken as idiots.

Surely stating end of September was buying time?

Surely the revised contract must be close to completion. This has taken a disappointingly lengthy time - undoubtedly it has been occupying huge amounts of JG's time - he has jumped the gun on the payment of the 6m euro, I am concerned that he has jumpred the gun on Recordati's involvement. Does anyone have contact with him any more? If so, can they ask him what they delay is (not that he'll give an answer, but it might give an indication as to his level of confidence). Contract negotiations are notoriously secretive and what is said publicly may be said for other reasons - is anybody able to ask JM what his opinion is on the delay in receiving the renegotiated payment?

I can't help that think if this was being p&d'd it would happen more frequently as it is tightly held. It is a micro-cap stock and that is the reason we could easily see multiples of the current share price, as we did last November. I am sure there are those who organise p&d's in micro-cap stocks, personally I do not follow such behaviour. It is a market distortion and for those who organise it, it is fraudulent, those who rely on it, gambling. Most of the long term holders know why we are here although I suspect that there are many long term holders of RP who haven't a clue what is going on given that they could have made a significant return when RP took over PLE. We are mid way through September - I am hoping for news on the amended contract and variation payment soon. Irrespective as to whether this impacts on the share price, it will make me feel significantly better when we have the money in our account. For me this is the most significant short term event on the horizon, failure to deliver will probably see the company halve in value or worse.