RE: GREAT RNS, WHY THE SELLS??25 Jan 2021 11:36
Hi Stevethyne
I do not think you would be far out if we can get to half (i.e. 5m ozs) as much as Buritica. My guess is around £3 to £4. See attempt to show this guesstimate I posted yesterday.
TRY SENDING AGAIN
What could OMI share price potential be compared to Continental Gold (with its Buritica project) which had announced 11.3 million ounces of combined Measured, Indicated and Inferred resource.
Continent's share price was CAD $4 (OR £2.30 based on exchange rate of £1 to CAD $ 1.7376) in January 2019 following its NI43-101 Report depicting its 11.3 million ounce total resource. How would this compare with the share price for OMI if it came up with just 5 million oz potential.
One further observation to make is that OMI is an exploration company and Continental too was an exploration company back in January 2019 when it produced the NI 43-101 Report. Continental's accounts for 2019 showed an operating (loss) of some $8.4 million which you would expect.
(1) CONTINENTAL GOLD - 11.3M OZ RESOURCE
a) Measured = 1.4 MT
b) Indicated = 14.6 MT
c) Inferred = 21.9 MT (The point to note here is inferred is nearly 1 and 1/2 times more than combined measured + indicated
2) Gold price in January 2019 = $1,278
3) AIS Costs (ASSUMED) = $800 ( I will assume the same later for PAT)
4) Margin = $1,278 less $800 = $478 per ounce
5) Profit over life of mine = 11,300,000 oz X $478 = $5,401,000,000
6) Outstanding shares in Jan 2019 = 203,000,000
7) Market value in Jan 2019 = $812 million
8) Therefore, in Jan 2019 the market value is 15% of the total future profits ( i.e. $812,000,000/$5,401,000,000)
9) Share price = $812,000,000 / 203,000,000 shares = $4 per share.
10) Share Price in pounds = $4 / 1.7376 (exchange rate in 2019) = £2.30.OMI -
OMI - WITH 5M OZ RESOURCE ESTIMATE
1) Gold price in Jan 2021 = $1,800
2) AISC = $800 (Assumed same as in Continental Gold)
3) Margin = $1,800 less $800 = $1,000 per ounce
4) Profit over life of mine = 5,000,000 oz X $1,000 = $5,000,000,000
5) Outstanding shares = 187,000,000
6) Market value % as per Continental Gold = 15% X Profit of $5,000,000,000 = $750,000,000
7) Therefore Share Price = $750,000,000 / 187,000,000 shares = $4.00 per share
8) Share Price pounds = $4.00 / 1.37 = £2.92.
The above analysis indicates that even though Continental Gold had a resource estimate of 11.3 million ounces back in January 2019, the share price is not far out from the estimate which works out for OMI based on half the estimated resource at 5 million ounces.