RE: Reality31 Jan 2018 09:24
Richam:
I understand your point but, respectfully, i disagree with the basis of recovery calculation. In the context of trying to interpret limited data then this method is probably OK when attempting to examine a broader picture - but its certainly not best metallurgical accounting practice. The issue, and precisely for this reason, is that the re-processing of "concentrate" should have been stated as a separate line item in the December operational update allowing it to be split-out and the underlying performance examined. The fact it isn't leads me to the crux of my own disquiet with the progress so far. Treating the backlog has artifically lifted production/sales for the Qtr, now this backlog has been exhausted (as stated in the RNS), i.e. its a one off event, how are they going to sustainably maintain these levels going forward? Clearly throughput can be increased and recovery also (they both need to improve for certain) but they will need to rise to offset the absence of the re-treated concentrate tonnes just to effectively standstill. Like you i'm also disappointed with the sales figures, the GTP figures gave cause for hope but this has been subdued somewhat by the apparent lack of sales to WB & H. From a process persepective the fact that the fines recovery circuit improvements have not yet been fully implemented is a poor outcome.Whilst doing so offers room for improvement going forward its a sad refelection on Wolf that its taking so long to improve an obvious and critical metallurgical area.
Similarly, ATP pricing is higher than the last Qtr so if it stays at these levels, or better increases, then this is very beneficial indeed. Cash outflow for the Q1 18 period is estimated at 27 million (AUD), i'm assuming this is based on the stated return to 7 day working so revenue (circa 16 million (AUD)) should, simplistically, increase pro-rata?
I always thought it would be the current Qtr (Q1 18) that would be key to achieving operational breakeven, now its more realistically Q2 18. Wolf is, and always has been since March 2016, a recovery play - the question is have they got enough time left before the debt/funding clock runs out?
Overall its a C minus from me. Just my opinion, others may differ.
PG