Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
telemarker: Thanks for sharing. PG
It's probably not overly surprising that there are different views from Wolf/GRES re the LFN issue. Given that Wolf is, and has been since start of operations, in breach of its EA permit this is clearly an important area. Similarly, the impact on local residents can't be underestimated. If the case against GRES is lost then Wolf will need to find an additional $7.5M to rectify the issue; if they win then the cost is covered provided that the estimate of $7.5M is accurate and not exceeded. Anyone with experience of contract disputes have a view on this? Dec 2017 Qtr Activities Rpt. "Progress has also been made on a resolution to low frequency noise emissions, with input from a team of global experts on noise and acoustic treatments providing a way forward to a positive outcome for our local communities. " "Subsequent to Quarter end, the noise and vibration management plan has been agreed with the EA, with the solution identified from best available techniques being to re-clad the existing building structure with a proprietary acoustic panelling system at an estimated cost of up to �7.5 million."...... .............." Previously, the Company assessed the costs of ongoing LFN rectifications and announced on 17 August 2017 that it had decided to notify its lead construction contractor, GR Engineering Services Limited (GRES), of its intention to recover these costs from the �7.5 million Performance Bond under the construction contract if GRES did not take all necessary actions to do so at its own cost. Further discussions and correspondence have taken place with GRES and are ongoing in relation to achieving a resolution. The Company remains confident that the Performance Bond will be sufficient to cover the costs of implementing the LFN noise and vibration management plan" GRES Annual Rpt 2017 "Shareholders will be aware that in August 2017, GR Engineering Services (UK) Limited (GRES UK), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, received from Wolf Minerals (UK) Limited (Wolf) a notice of claim and notice of intention to call on a bank guarantee of approximately $AUD 12.2 million within 21 days of the notice where GRES UK fails to rectify an alleged defect relating to Low Frequency Noise emanating from the Hemerdon Tungsten/Tin plant. GRES UK considers that Wolf�s claim is without merit and that Wolf has no grounds to pursue recourse to the bank guarantee. As at the date of this report Wolf has taken no action to call on the bank guarantee and the Company remains proactive in its willingness to engage with Wolf to resolve the matter." PG
Mineralex: That's not correct. Whether the deposit(s) are worked by surface mining (open pit) or underground mining methods they are both mines and a mining licence and environmental permit is required, these require a mine plan. PG
DB27: It doesn't get any cheaper in the mining world. Rip, dig, crush, screen and sell. Better than that all of the kit and staff can be provided by a contract mining operation, so no up-front CAPEX required other than mobilisation costs and Govt. environmental bonds etc. PG
This is why the fines recovery circuit upgrades are so important. Implementation of these modifications provides a substantial upside going forward through Q1 and Q2 2018 but they should have been installed by now. PG
Richam: I understand your point but, respectfully, i disagree with the basis of recovery calculation. In the context of trying to interpret limited data then this method is probably OK when attempting to examine a broader picture - but its certainly not best metallurgical accounting practice. The issue, and precisely for this reason, is that the re-processing of "concentrate" should have been stated as a separate line item in the December operational update allowing it to be split-out and the underlying performance examined. The fact it isn't leads me to the crux of my own disquiet with the progress so far. Treating the backlog has artifically lifted production/sales for the Qtr, now this backlog has been exhausted (as stated in the RNS), i.e. its a one off event, how are they going to sustainably maintain these levels going forward? Clearly throughput can be increased and recovery also (they both need to improve for certain) but they will need to rise to offset the absence of the re-treated concentrate tonnes just to effectively standstill. Like you i'm also disappointed with the sales figures, the GTP figures gave cause for hope but this has been subdued somewhat by the apparent lack of sales to WB & H. From a process persepective the fact that the fines recovery circuit improvements have not yet been fully implemented is a poor outcome.Whilst doing so offers room for improvement going forward its a sad refelection on Wolf that its taking so long to improve an obvious and critical metallurgical area. Similarly, ATP pricing is higher than the last Qtr so if it stays at these levels, or better increases, then this is very beneficial indeed. Cash outflow for the Q1 18 period is estimated at 27 million (AUD), i'm assuming this is based on the stated return to 7 day working so revenue (circa 16 million (AUD)) should, simplistically, increase pro-rata? I always thought it would be the current Qtr (Q1 18) that would be key to achieving operational breakeven, now its more realistically Q2 18. Wolf is, and always has been since March 2016, a recovery play - the question is have they got enough time left before the debt/funding clock runs out? Overall its a C minus from me. Just my opinion, others may differ. PG
Richam: whilst I agree with much of your post you need to revisit the recovery figure. The equivalent nameplate run rate basis is a fair methodology to achieve a head-to-head comparison, however it's not appropriate for recovery calculation. This can only be calculated from the actual tonnes processed, head grade and tonnes of concentrate produced (or MTU basis) - you can't recover anything from theoretical tonnes. PG
Leapfrog The 27 million isn't a shortfall. PG
Leapfrog Isn't the 27 million a cash outflow estimate rather than a net position, i.e. you need to add in revenue? Or have I missed something? PG
Bulent74: Should have mentioned that the data is for shipments to GTP only - don't have anything for WB & H or "spot". PG
Richam: Depends on the accouting rules that Wolf are using for internal cut-off dates. For the shipment you use as an example then this would have almost certainly been produced at the end of December 2017. There is always a lag between shipment and production. That being said there will be a significant improvement in the production for the last qtr when compared to the previous ones. What i'm interested in, and will make my buy,sell or hold decision on, are the Q1 2018 figures. Nameplate capacity and an operating profit are unlikely to be achieved, in my view until then i.e. when the benefits of the 6 month improvement program have flowed through for a full qtr. PG
DT13: https://panjiva.com/Wolf-Minerals-Uk/38663607 You can get free data if you check every week and record that weeks details, if you want to see all historic records then its a pay service. PG
Richam: Do your figures include the 58 t listed today on Panjiva? PG
Richam: Operating costs do not increase in line with production as you state, they actually decrease. In the previous Qtrs ore has been mined, ground, processed and then tungsten/tin not recovered. Cost has been incurred with minimal saleable return. At higher recovery resulting from the modified plant and the switch to an improved ratio of hard ore then more tungsten/tin is recovered for the same expenditure - hence operating cost per tonne of concentrate decreases. PG
Can't buy more than �500 worth via Halifax before if goes to NT, anyone else having problems with other brokers? PG
Average shipment for weeks 13/1 and 6/1/18 is 58.2 t of concentrate per week. See links from previous posts to verify. PG
Richam: Yes, the last two weeks for December were both 58,xxx kg's. PG
Shipments of tungsten concentrate to GTP, one of Wolfs two offtakers, are currently 58.4 tonnes per week; that's a run-rate just north of 3,000 tonnes per year. The link provides the weekly shipping info - click on "Bill of Lading." You can cross-check this with the Master Bill of Lading number via the Orient Overseas Containers Ltd (OOCL) shipment tracking facility. https://panjiva.com/Wolf-Minerals-Uk-Ltd/37387676 PG
Thelithanater: Re your 08.32 and 11.23 am posts. RH is mentioning spodumene because its already been found to occur in tantalite valley. PG