Member Info for Private_Investor

I have been quiet for a few weeks as I don't see any value in posting while the board is swamped by clowns.

The RNS today is being used by some of the clowns to drive their agenda. I am not passing a comment on the funding itself just the RNS.
There is nothing within this RNS that was not either known or anticipated. It should have been priced in.
Will the market react - almost certainly it is what markets do.
Is it cause for panic - not for me. You are not me, your view may be different.

Is it too soon?

Mulled wine then?

Tiburn.
True.
Two things I would like to see different from your outcome.

1st sale of this block only 70% - 90% is fine.
75% of cash generated to be returned to shareholders, think there are ways this can be tax efficient through a return on shareholders investment rather than as a special dividend.
Remaining cash used to fund drilling in other Bahamian blocks in addition to Uruguay and acquired CERP assets.

All self funding from that point forwards, no more begging bowls.

MN1980
Maybe BPC works in reverse and we go up on the back of a cr*p RNS.

All will be revealed.

P_I.
There will be dancing on the streets (social distance dancing) if they announce a dusty hole?

Realistically, as a fund manager you have the option to dump shares and guarantee a 15% + return in a matter of days/weeks. Knowing that in your back pocket you have options over another £10m worth with an aggregate option price at 3.5p.
Dump the lot before results hopefully yet a loose lips moment to help inform the decision on the exercise or not of the options.
Nice work if you can get it.

Don't think anyone had 2.35.
I would have said it was unbelievable but this is BPC.
still madness given what we might find out in 45-60 days.

Fingers crossed....BOOM.
Although I suspect it will be only a small boom.
Tight hole.
Non production well.
Negative sentiment regards recent placing and or JR possibly.

Didn't want to be out of this over the weekend.

To all LTHs who have grumbled and griped over the years, but have remained invested regardless of any feelings of disappointment along the way.

As Rocky said to Adrian.
"We did it"

Next stop 45 - 60 days.

A while back there was a submission of spud date price estimates.
Two questions.
1. Can we get the list published.
2. Do we take COB day before spud (possibly today) or COB on day of spud RNS?

If today I might be out by a bit on my 4.2p estimate.

I wouldn't want to be out of this stock over the weekend.

Can I hear a very small boom?

Direction change..
The SP will be several £.
No science.
No reasons.
Just be nice to stick it to the naysayers with no skin in the game. (Even better the ones who are short but deny it)
I have no issue with those who are short and honest.

And.
The SP will fall to 0p just to shut up the blind rampers.

Or.

The SP will be somewhere between the gutters and the stars.

The maths can be simplified to give 'fair value' for a given outcome and I would normally expect for a decent sized mCap the SP to reflect 'fair value' but the world stopped following logic a few years back.

Penny stock to a £££ stock!

I had to check we hadn't had an RNS on share consolidation.

Many moons ago when dinosaurs roamed the earth there was talk of BPC being at 87p.
Since then we have had dilution, we have had acquisition, we have had revised 3d scan data, we have had covid related consumption reductions.
I no longer think there is an educated value on any given drill outcome on the basis the dinosaurs have all gone (with one or two notable exceptions)

We will be drilling soon. (Subject to beliefs on legal processes etc)

We will find out drill results a bit later.(subject to drill penetration and logging)

The share price will move. (It might not be much in any one direction - but then again it could go many x higher or fall to zero)

Them's the dice.

Having reflected on the RNS I do not have an issue with the initial raise. I think it is a healthy contingency against a negative outcome on Perv#1.
I am less happy with the 3p and 4p options but suspect they are the cost of the deal.
Nice work if you can get it.

I wouldn't mind a bucket full of options at 3p or 4p or even 10p given the possibility of a positive drill outcome.

Funding but at what price?

This feels like a BOD preparing for life after Perv#1 if things do not go well.

I don't know titan any more or less than I know you.
I have no dog in the fight where you are all concerned.
Titan has posted things I don't agree with, they have also posted views from local sources.
Like all reporting this will always have an angle, be it the writer or the publisher.
The value is in knowing what is being shared locally. At some point the sentiment may change and that is a big moment. Many publishers will hold to a view until it looks like the outcome is going against that view. At this point the stance often softens and caveats are introduced to articles.

Just one more indicator worth looking at?

For the avoidance of doubt.
I am neither Bahamian nor am I Simon.

I am however middle aged and white.
I can also count myself fortunate to have been to the Bahamas many years ago.
Fantastic place, amazing people.

Less than 10 days and we will know without any doubt if the drill is going ahead on the proposed timeline

For those who have been waiting for 10+years the next 10 days will feel like a lifetime.

More haste
Less speed.

Sorry Rp11ace.
I posted my musings in the middle of your quoted post.
Clumsy, oafish, amateur that I am.

Rp11ace:
Not saying it’ll be good or bad just that if the government refuse it now they will have potentially lost the ability to utilise their natural resources for good.

Or....license to explore for oil expires for BPC.
Big oil steps in drills dozens of exploration wells, deeper pockets so can afford to be a bit more hit and miss than BPC could. Higher risk of oil spill. No of wells x probability of spill.

They find oil.
Yay.

BPC step back in and wave the "exploitation licence 30 year term" contract.

Nobody else will even look for oil whilst BPC hold the exploitation rights.
After watching a company spend 110 million to get this far and get refused now what other company would then ever pursue it again.

Because it suits my purpose.

If there are commercial quantities of oil discovered.
If these are exploted on the existing terms.
How much money flows to the Bahamas Government?

Assumptions POO $55. Per barrel.
Cost to extract $35 per barrel (assumed on the basis BPC statement that it sees commercial viability even at $40 POO.

@100k bopd production.
360 operational days per year.
Royalty at 12.5%.

36m bop year.
Gives 4.5m bop year to Bahamas government.

Not sure on contract terms if this is pre or post op costs so will consider both.
Post op costs just $90m p.a.
Pre op costs $247.5m p.a.

However expecting company to look at generating cash more quickly?

250k bopd.
360 op days.
Royalty up to 25%.
90m bop year.

Gives Bahamas cut at 22.5m bop year
Post op costs just $450m p.a.
Pre op costs $1,237.5m p.a.

Would the tourists stop going to the Bahamas because oil was produced miles away? I think not.
Would tourists be put off by reduced levels of poverty on the islands? I think not.
Would tourists be put off by better infrastructure or healthcare on the islands? I think not.
50% of people working in or around hospitality linked to tourism. That is a massive burden during a global pandemic or in the wake of a tropical storm.
If it reduced to 40% not through reduced tourism but through additional skilled, semi-skilled and manual jobs in the oil industry that would be a negative?

The answer is only yes if there is a disastrous spill. I think I saw some stats posted on the BB earlier on spill rates globally and the trend reduction.
Not saying there is no risk, just looking for the risk v reward.
If I were a bahamian I would be more interested in te royalty rate being pre or post extraction costs.
(Gold mining is typically pre costs)