March on to £68 Feb 2025 09:44
brent to come down from $74.6 if there is another build in usa inventory.
peace with russia ukraine. imo
overall, "the biggest influence on oil prices, no doubt, is president donald trump," phil *****, senior market analyst at the price futures group, told marketwatch. "the president will keep us guessing - from tariffs on to tariffs off."
trump this week restated a goal from his first presidency to bring iran's oil exports to zero, and there's speculation he may unveil a peace plan to end the war in ukraine.
read: trump is putting 'maximum economic pressure' on iran. what's next for oil?
the largest effects on the oil market will be "whether sanctions on russia would continue to be in place if a peace deal was agreed upon," said alex hodes, director of energy-market strategy for stonex, in friday's newsletter. "if sanctions were removed, there would be some downside volatility in crude-oil markets, even though russian oil flows have remained steady since sanctions have been in place."
'all of these historic moves are going to write the script for oil in the short term and for the history books for generations to come.'phil *****, price futures group
all in all, however, "these historic moves are going to write the script for oil in the short term and for the history books for generations to come," said *****.
on friday afternoon, trump said he would announce reciprocal tariffs next week. details on that are "missing," louis navellier, founder and chief investment officer of navellier & associates, wrote in a daily note. he expected more volatility in the financial markets going into the weekend, as "the new administration has been showing a tendency to make new announcements over the weekends."
wti, the u.s. oil benchmark, had fallen toward $70 a barrel on thursday, finding "strong dip-buying" interest this morning, ipek ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at swissquote bank, said in a note. both wti and brent ended thursday at their lowest since dec. 27.
concerns over trump's trade policies - after the imposition of an additional 10% tariff on china this week and uncertainty over other tariff moves - threaten to "hammer global growth prospects and will probably support a deeper retreat in crude prices," she wrote, with a fall toward the $65 to $68 range now looking plausible.
a hefty rise in weekly u.s. crude supplies contributed to oil's losses this week. the energy information administration reported wednesday that commercial crude inventories climbed for a second week in a row, rising by 8.7 million barrels for the week that ended jan. 31.
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