Intrinsic Value? Grok19 Mar 2026 12:36
- A producing asset (Cobre magnetite in the US, generating modest cash flow).
- The flagship **Redmoor Tungsten-Tin-Copper Project** in Cornwall (inferred resource 11.7 Mt @ 1.17% Sn Eq, high-grade drill results in 2026, infill drilling underway for PFS, updated MRE/economic study targeted end-Q1 2026).
- Expanded ~88 km² footprint including the Duchy of Cornwall lease (~64 km²) for exploration upside.
- Recent funding: £4.7m subscription on 19 March 2026 at **3.5p per share** (134.3m new shares, ~16.7% discount to prior close, admission expected ~25 March).
No published company NPV exists for Redmoor (pre-PFS stage; prior 2020 scoping study outdated amid higher metal prices). Tungsten supercycle (~USD 2,000–2,400/mtu APT) dramatically improves potential economics vs. older assumptions.
### Published Third-Party Intrinsic Value / Fair Value Estimates (as of mid-March 2026)
These are mostly automated DCF or formula-based models (e.g., 2-stage FCF to equity, Peter Lynch fair value) and **significantly lag** recent catalysts (ultra-high-grade drills, resource/model updates, tungsten rally, PFS acceleration, fresh funding). They undervalue the story given current momentum.
- Simply Wall St (Oct/Dec 2025 models, still referenced): ~1.1–1.2p (2-stage DCF, based on very conservative FCF projections; share price then ~1.1p, implying fair value alignment at the time).
- ValueInvesting.io (Peter Lynch formula, March 2026): ~12p (but formula uses earnings growth × EPS; limited relevance for pre-production junior with negative/currently tiny earnings).
- Alpha Spread / other automated tools: Low single-digit pence (e.g., ~1.9p analyst-linked in some feeds, but inconsistent).
- Consensus analyst 12-month target (1 analyst, e.g., via Marketscreener/Investing.com): **4.8p** (range 4.8p; implies ~14–17% upside from recent ~4.1–4.2p levels pre-latest raise reaction).
Zeus Capital (lead broker/research provider) issued reactive corporate notes (e.g., Jan 2026 fair-value uplift after twin drills/model update; March 5 ultra-high-grade reaction; March 17 infill contract). No public new standalone target in March 2026 snippets, but they remain supportive of acceleration and view Redmoor as strategically valuable in UK/EU critical minerals context (no specific pence figure publicly quoted recently).
### My View on Realistic Intrinsic / Fair Value Today
Given:
- Recent share price reaction (trading ~4.2–4.7p post-raise, up sharply on momentum).
- Tungsten/tin/copper prices far above 2019–2020 study assumptions.
- Imminent MRE update (end-Q1 2026) with 40–60%+ resource upside potential from 2025/2026 drills.
- PFS path de-risked by infill + funding.
- Duchy exploration optionality.
- Junior mining peer multiples (exploration/PFS-stage critical metals often 100–500m+ mcap on comparable assets).