Member Info for PRDaynes

Hi Slift you seem convinced we could struggle with the rump of RCF, remember that when we took refinanced RCF it was for $1200m we have paid all instalments on time or early and paid the interest required, we needed a bit more, so took out the OZ loan for $175m so why would refinancing a small amount be extra costly. And the OZ loan is being repaid very fast with 15% of Kraken performing so well with its premium. Relax AB has sorted the finance out at a worse time's than now and doubt he will be paying increased interest rates should it be needed.

Its funny but you are probably spot on, $27 FCF was projected for 2021 and oil production drop with oil in the $40's but with oil in the $60's we are likely to be drilling again so $27 will rise back up to $33 and production will rise again. All plans in oil depend on the price but that is why they issue updates and we have one in Feb so look foward to getting their plans then.

Figures just playing around with debt, accounts list RB as a £ debt but everything else is $ this will mean the retail bond debt has increased during last period by S29.89m. But also means the $1351m June debt was £1080m but the last update of $1388m was £1013m of course shares are listed in £. Just playing around in lockdown but I think figures are right June 30th $1 = $1.25 31st Dec £1 = $1.37 it could be taken as another reason to hold RB

The fire was all in that update that gave 2020 at expected slightly below midpoint 57-63 per day and I note that production was back at 40% within days and will affect the first half of 2021. That equates to an expected reduction of 2400 per day for 2021 yes production in NS may fall off in 2021 but 4 wells came onstream in 2020 that are likely to keep Kraken and Magnus levels up in 2021 but that is why I look forward to next update from Enquest in Feb, it will not be long at $60 oil before we are drilling again.so I wouldn't be attempting to foresee 2022 production figures.
But all this doesn't get away from the fact AB will not be raising $100 by Equity to bring down RCF.

Why on earth would ENQ raise $100m Equity to pay off RCF they raised $175 with the OZ loan by ring fencing 15% of kraken by oct they will have repaid about $150m of that if there is shortfall a deal will be done easily and it is still an IF, with oil rising looking good that we will not need,
Any new Equity raise will be for a new deal? You state fact of production fall off but last update says expected midpoint 57-63k per day do you have new facts? I prefer to wait for Feb update and take their projections.
If you sold out and are looking for a drop best of luck!

Hi romaron if you don't describe it as faith would you accept confidence, I was considering RB or Equity in my recent buys, but decided that the extra risk on Equity was worth taking. as you say RB yield 25% with medium risk but Equity at 200m has a lot higher potential, at a higher risk. Looking forward to 2023 what are we going to do with all the cash 7% yield may be hard to find then. Best wishes for a prosperous year

I wouldn't say there was a discrepancy between RB and Equity at the moment, remember the Bonds have a massif spread and are thinly traded I noted romaron had faith and increased his bond holding recently it takes faith when you have a 7-8% spread and he has now moved into a profit on that faith and will get his 3.5% PIK in Feb. But you don't buy RB to trade. Equity is riskier but is easy to liquidate and has about 2% spread, I have both but would trade Equity, but will hold RB. As I have faith now is time to buy or hold the Equity, offer me 40p and it would likely be time for me to sell. But RB would probally be 90p and paying cash at that point and I would hold them.

RB risk is reduced by increase in oil before the risk to Equity, I am looking for a couple of 10000 buys to go through on bonds and another jump, then Equity will kick off. Risk is reducing fast but oil is still held back by covid 19.

Net Debt $1388m of which $385 is RCF October 21 is the RCF date and that is the key issue can it be repaid in time?
Lots of opportunities for deals about but with Equity value sitting at less than £200m how can one be achieved?
Equity is not paying Dividends, Bonds are trading below face value and not paying cash interest we are looking for a way to raise money for new assets give ability to take advantage of the assets we have and any that we purchase and we need long enough dated and at a lot better rate finance.
The key could be buying a high class asset refinancing to cheaper rates, buy out existing Bonds with part money and Equity that pays a dividend. We have about 1 billion in Bonds that have a market value of 650 million to my mind that is a wasted potential. With right assets a complete transformation of Enquest could take place new lower rate debt with Equity paying a dividend. All just a thought but lots can happen.

More a case of we have been furloughed on 80% but full pay and overtime will come back soon $60 oil by Easter.

"Chilting pmo had decent assets but main issue was the high debts."
I think that was not so much the problem, it was the date on the debt that was the problem a bit like having a fixed rate Mortgage and losing your job if you have a 5 year rate and lose your job you have time to get sorted but if you have months left you are faced with an impossible task as who will give you a new deal and standard bank rate mortgage will cripple you. Timing is everything. PMO ran out of time we have 3 years on the bulk of debt and its interest. Manageable RCF at $50 and $60 would mean we can up that production quickly to cleat the Bonds

Hi romaron yes I agree AB.s 15% and his reputation of adding helps choke off shorts, I hold Bonds as a safer bet but accept income will be deferred, It is good to know 66.5p wasn't enough to be filled but not surprised with Brent over $50. I have been buying shares recently as I have more confidence that debt is manageable and that a deal is likely soon. More risk but have done well with ITV recently so put profits in here. But am now at my limit. last year shows nothing is safe but it looks as though with Trump out Brexit nearly done and Vaccine success it should lead to a recovery in oil survivors. We should have been refunded by the Malaysian's by now that helps with debt. Agree next year will be interesting and exciting.

Just checked short positions on Enquest, none declared so your view that they could be picked up for a 1p is not shared!
I suspect market view is Enquest may be putting a deal together and as the Magnus deal involved a rights issue at a premium are reluctant to short them in case it is the outcome. I don't think it will, but is a lot more likely than being taken over for a penny.

Not a case of gloating about a better decision, I just get fed up with the ****ging ourselves off. For better or worse we are out.
Anyway I hope I made a good decision today added a few more ENQ shares.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-eu-pfizer/eu-to-order-more-pfizer-vaccine-after-declining-earlier-offer-idUKKBN28R190
Afraid on this one credit has to go to UK Government, we approved it first and had ordered supplies, German MEP was livid that they produced it, all credit to them! but first German was vaccinated in UK . and EU has only just approved it but turned down the chance of 500 million doses in preference to French vaccine candidate that has problems.
I desperately hope all of Us get jab whatever country we live in.

It might mean you get a covid jab before the rest of Europe they are regretting having a common policy to buy the French vaccine.

I agree that is AB's pitch I hope we can combine the advantages of the big outfits on lower cost capital with our efficiency at operator level. Win Win as they say.

No mention made to PMO shareholders handing over 40% of the new companies assets for 5% of the Equity in new entity, the new company now has the economy of scale? that is what the BP's of this world have if it works then why are they now receiving money from Magnus the same field they were losing money on when they operated it. What I heard from webcast was a management congratulating itself on getting control of PMO's assets for peanuts and yes it may be a very good investment to buy into, but not by buying PMO shares.

Tariffs on Lamb imposed by EU mean the French will not pay for British Lamb but Tariffs on Beef mean the British will not pay for Irish Beef, is the madness of the EU that is why the Irish cant sell their Beef around the world and are trapped in the EU Market and the Welsh Farmers are trapped in the EU market. The British gave up cheap food when they joined EU prices went up not down it was on the dream of our Exports to them but we allowed our fishing grounds to become theirs we import much more from them than they do from us, and the protectionist Tariffs restrict us trading with rest of world. Oh and we have been lead into being ruled by them, because we are a rule following nation unlike others who ignore them or make sure they set them to their advantage. The EU answer to environmental problems has lead to Oceans full of plastic atmosphere full of coal fired steel production pollution, they have met all targets by shipping the problem. Rant over
Enquest looks to me like something is going on deal wise price held down AB not able to trade?

I remember Tom saying it would fall to 50p and he would load up and hold he shouldn't have been so greedy.
He sounds like a Donald Trump, I hear he bet millions on Biden winning as he knew they would fix the vote so he wins anyway. Full of BS