RE: Uk Energy Market6 Sep 2022 18:18
Well my take is that economies are gearing up after covid and probably 2008 when capex was slashed on oil/ gas projects/ infrastructure and now things have bottlenecked somewhat. Plus the Keystone pipeline in the states never really got off the ground- thats a lot of stuff from Canada that didn't happen esp. from the environmental standpoint. Talking of environmentalism, a lot of cash went into renewables to the detriment of the petro industry. Again another reason as my first point, for a bottleneck. Lastly the Europeans started buying more futures contracts for their gas, the Chinese/ Indians and others are in competition. Guess what happens to spot prices !
I know folk from Invergordon- a rig park in N.Scotland. Why so many rigs lying around? I asked- well the environmental thing- they just ain't fashionable any more. More legislation didn't help either. Then we have the staffing bottleneck. Experienced staff have got bored and left or simply retired. One more? Folk cr*pped themselves when oil was in minus figures- crikey it might happen again ! The money went into real estate instead. Buy a dirty flat and let it to clean families- easy. Now the int' rates are rising and extra landlord legislation etc, we should see the bubble deflate, fuel /bills will compound it.
Also, the IEA IEA forecasts a 9% increase in annual gas demand between 2020 and 2024, significantly higher than the demand growth that would need to be maintained to stay in line with the target of net-zero emissions by 2070.
Still we are buying Russian gas via China for double bubble +. IF that gets stamped on (probably after winter- we'll do alright. Tolmont's a go.
In short great news for HBR. The big fish I feel, want in here and for some time too and the 'bots are making a meal of it hence our reputation as a traders share amongst some Premier hands on this BB including myself-before next year debt and hedges reduction. The reasons above are why I rebought (left it late, mind).
GL