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You've got it Dai as you have correctly taken into account the share price difference.

For e.g

You can see some stocks with 100,000 NMS that trade at a mere fractions of a penny but with billions of shares in issue and are therefore relatively illiquid.

Other factors that play a part are the free float i.e number of % shares on the register in the hands of PI and not tightly held by institutions or BOD.

There are some small caps where the founders / BOD and institutional investors may own say 70%+ of the total share register leaving only a small 'free float' and these types of stocks SP tend to whipsaw on small volume.

That's just how it is Dai.

If it was set out in the prospectus then they can do it.

A lot if pre IPO seed investors who take part in initial rounds of cash raising will only do so with the incentive of options or warrants thrown into the mix as a nice little incentive to put the cash in upfront in the pre listing days.

Re PANR. The Normal Market Size relative to the SP is around 2.3 x times the liquidity of He1.

So traders can jump in and out in larger position sizes.

The NMS is subject to fluctuations in volumes and will increase if you get a volume spikes and the reverse is also true as the lower the volumes the less stock the MM'S will want to hold on their books.

That's why a genuine bear trap reversal is so powerful as when you get stocks that are coming off long very long downtrends usually the MM'S ain't holding much as volumes dry up and the NMS is therefore decreased to small levels.

When you get reversals on these thinly traded stocks you can get a situation where almost every buy will tick the SP up as the MM's don't hold much stock so have to push the price up quickly in the hunt for sellers once the price action reverses.

Tro,

It does remind me of CHAR.

Very similar number of shares in issue.

CHAR had had a few hicups, then hit a discovery, which saw the SP take off, then the post well analysis was even better than first thought and the SP shot up again.

From what I can remember CHAR had nowhere near the volumes being seen over at He1 at present.

I love an oversold when the sellers are exhausted as positive SP momentum can kick in quickly.

PANR was a good one to just sit on the sidelines and wait for positive news as momentum didn't immediately follow through and it was possible to jump in with size on good news as it is such a liquid stock and with all the offloading prior there was plenty available stock and the mean reversion was in play.

I'm keeping a close watch on He1 from the sidelines as it moves towards the business end of matters as I'm sat on loads of dry powder at present.

What can happen if there are shareholders with millions of warrants or options 'in the money' is that they actually sell down there shares on the open market to move into risk free cash position with the knowledge that they can use this cash to exercise or take up their warrants if the SP moves favourably thereby providing them with the optionality of sharing in the upside in any shareprice movement but without the risk of having to actually hold any shares until its in their benefit to do so.

So.

Yes, it's reasonable to assume that if I held say £200k shares in He1 and I knew that I was going to be awarded £200k of options at par or below the present SP. I can now sell out completely, bank the cash. But retain the option to buy back in at the fixed strike price should the shares trade above this strike price at anytime in the future but have no exposure to downside risks in the same way if I was still holding the stock.

The options or warrants that are likely to be exercised are ones that are presently 'in the money' where the strike price is less than the present SP.

You often see lots of options issued at prices way higher than fhe SP and they never get taken up.

Might be worth taking a look at how many are presently 'in the money'

Hi Dai

Just seen your post

Lots of companies do this where options or warrants are awarded and the shares yet to be issued are either held in treasury or reflected on the balance sheet of the company albeit the income from these will not be crystallised until the options or warrants are exercised.

In some cases where there are masses of outstanding options this can actually skew the balance sheet position (probably some tax benefit) but I've not been that close to He1 to Tot up all the various aggregate exercise prices etc.

Doesn't mean all the shares will come onto the market in one go they just form part of larger share capital and have to be recorded for complaint accounting purposes and to enable anyone to calculate what the fully diluted position would be.

That AMTE chart is something of a horror show!!

I certainly wouldn't rule a trade out Kev!

All you guys have waited long enough.

I have no position here, but hope this drill delivers for you all.

Helipad will be for medevac.

Likely mandatory H&S requirement for that rig in that location.

The RNS a day at ECR (or every other day) newsflow avalanche since Doc came on board continues unabated as expected.

I think LW is probably right about this one.

Meanwhile..... over at EEE they have got their £3mil placing away at 4p.

No nothing to do with that Kev.

More to do with dollar strength/ weakness and China making noise about stopping purchasing US treasury bills and starting to buy up Gold instead.

Keeping an eye on this to see how it all plays out over the coming months.

Most of the usual suspects bounced of their October '22 lows and went on a decent rally into Jan '23

Could we see this pattern repeat again between Oct '23 through into the new year as most have retraced and lost all those gains and headed back to Oct '22 levels?

I'll try to set out what news was expected by end of Q3.

It's not easy as comes have been poor since the Sunday roast PR.

Cutting things fine, but they were expecting first revenues from 3 production oil Wells and they have options over further licences.

They are also expecting to update on both their lithium and helium projects.

However, should timefeames slip a little then it won't be down to CDL as all of these projects are farmed out so they are not the operator.

The good part of that is that they don't have to fund these projects.

The bad part is that they have no control and are reliant upon the operators ro deliver

All of the above combines to lead to speculation

Haven't bothered posting on the BB recently as been poor and offers little genuine info.

There is one other potential major catalyst and that the proposed US IPO of their sister company which presumably would raise a fair chunk of cash but I've not checked up on progress with this recently.

So in brief

> oil revenues - first production

> lithium project update

> Helium project update

> US IPO.

> option on further licences

> Year end results (not expecting much here)

Turned a quick trade on this one earlier on in the year after the big drop.

One of the biggest discounted placings this year given the average SP over the past 12 months.

Only bigger discount I can think of was Wandisco with that 95% placing discount after all their woes..... ouch..

Always worth looking out for those massively discounted placings as they tend to see a short term bounce as those holding from much higher levels average down hard.

@mischief23

Yeah, seen this one move quickly over a few sessions and not good if you are caught at the top of the spike.

I've traded it previously and left well before it tops out as most trading these events will be using the volume spikes as exit liquidity.

The extra bit that some are suggesting is that the entities who are in need of stock to close their short and we anticipating a placing to enable them to do so have been wrongfooted by this private placing that has been completed without the brokers involvement.

Thereby leaving said entities exposed with a naked short that they will need to cover by buying up stock in the open market.

Again, I'm not suggesting this is the situation here.

@LW that's fair comment and maybe a short term speculative trade therefore up until just before 10th October if that's the admission date.

I suspect the RNS may come think and fast (4 x already since announcement of Doc joining)

The bit I'm curious about is the suggestion that a certain entity or entitles are short the stock and just waiting to conduct the next placement to get back their shares.

I've seen this discussion many times.

Generally the theory is thus.

Shares go on a rip, move up 500%+ > large short is opened. Discounted placing is thrown in, shares tumble, further discounted placing, share tumble further. Stock is continually loaned and sold and then finally when at Rock bottom another placing is thrown in at a silly price to enable the short to obtain stock and close.

I'm not suggesting this is what has happened here.

What is interesting is the constant repetitive bashing of a certain poster trying to disuede any new posters from joining that's been ongoing for some time which may add some weight to the short squeeze theory. But will continue to monitor as if there are entities in need of stock then a squeeze could well be on......... and from 3m market cap......

It could be explosive it accurate.

Starting to look perky again.....

Tro - you got a position here?

Wondering if ECR could do a GSCU style move.

GSCU did a placing at 1.1p ...SP now 3.6p.

With Doc holiday now on board I'd expect a media flurry, a lot of CEO's aren't that comfortable doing PR and that's not something doc is likely to struggle with.

Today's RNS and the recent interview suggests they belive the Company's assets (or sum of parts valuation) is worth far more than the present market cap.

Maybe next news will be an updating valuation of these assets and maybe a cash generating sale.

It sounded like one of the drills that they purchased has never been used so that could be flipped onto the market to release further cash alongside the recent raise.

Some exploration results are pending and I'm wondering if there is some headroom in their JORC resource modelling over in the Philippines that could yield a decrnt gold in the ground valuation upside.

Is momentum in the SP about to swing positive?