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All the house builders represent a massive shorting opportunity even after all the falls. Housing cycles last 7/8 years on average and the rises were over extended due to covid zero rates madness, U.K. now with parabolic inflation, low productivity and rates that will need to go a lot higher…it writes itself….in 2007 to 14 House prices tanked 30pc and then flatlined….with virtually zero rates. All these will be cut in half and the likes of Taylor Wimpey could be back to 09 lows. Long dated in the money put options will be very profitable. There isn’t a housing shortage, if you want one you can find plenty, there are just lots of people who cannot afford one, that’s not a shortage. Affordability is what drives prices. And of course there is the whole, self harming pathetic hopeless brexit insanity continuing to suck the economy down the toilet, it has tanked sterling’ value and that is also sucking in inflation. It’s all going to hit the fan over next couple of years.
Cost push inflation for U.K. insurers over next few years terminal…..why would you bother with stock specific risk in dogshxt U.K. stocks when you can buy US treasuries 3 month T bills yielding 5.20pc risk free return. Even the brexit morons would understand that haha.
Should announce cancellation of dividend by end of next week and capital raise.
Bond holders will want a capital raise and suspension of dividend, this is why the sell off gathering lace, last ex dividend won’t be paid, expect this sub .50 as soon as capital raise announced. Good to see Liberty losing money on this shxt after stitching up Vod with an overpriced German business.
Nice to se this bouncing so well from its ex dividend fall😂😂😂😂😂😂 Sub .50p coming by Sep.
It may have gone ex dividend but i think there is a better than 50/50 chance it never gets paid out….this company is in serious trouble….watch this space.
Why would anyone expect to see a bid for Vod? They will just wait for it to collapse and buy the bits they want from bondholders for pennies on the pound. Completely terminal, it’s almost certain this is the last dividend Vod will pay before it’s cancelled. The debt as it rolls over in this will become crippling to refinance and it has 12 million in lease liabilities that they have no chance of offloading as commercial property is toast. Short it.
Gsk has years of Zantac struggles ahead, poorly managed, large debt, going nowhere and you get 5.20 pc in T bills zero risk so no reason on earth to buy gsk. Vod not even worth talking about, terminal, capital raise plus dividend suspension shortly to be forced on it by bondholders, German business they basically got stitched up with, massively overpaid. PiperSandler who have been spot on last few years on markets have a target price for S&P year end of 3220, so there is very likely a massive self off coming, could see ftse back at 5400. Get into cash and T bills, then buy back in when it’s all cratered.
Yes I have seen the data, you obviously haven’t? Core inflation up in both the US and U.K. last two readings, credit cycle tightening because banks have blown out balance sheets, rates will go to 5.5 in U.K. and either held and raised or held in us, for a long time. No credit tightening like this has ever failed not to be followed by a hard recession, it was always going to be second half of this year due to lag effect of rates. Bothering to make any comparison between German powerhouse economy and the U.K. is not even worth addressing, even that slimeball Farage has now come out and said brexit an utter failure which is probably the undear statement of the century, allowing the dipsxxt half of the U.K. to tank the rest of us, one of the prime causes of UK’s parabolic inflation is weak sterling. I guarantee you that by the fourth quarter all company earnings will be marked down by 20pc plus, emphasis on plus, markets will be down 20/30 pc, unemployment up by 2 of and uk rates will be 5.5pc which with a credit junkie population like the uk will be terminal, you just buy T bills and hold cash and wait for the opportunities.
This company pretty much like brexit basket case U.K. in general. Terminal decline. The problem is there is a massive recession coming down the pipes, worldwide, over next six months, by the fourth quarter will be dire, and it’s likely to last some time, just can’t see how anything much, especially in indexes as hated as the U.K., can do any good. Probably the best shorts coming to put on now are in the money puts on U.K. banks and and builders, could see them cut in half again pretty quickly.
Nobody buys U.K. shares anymore for gods sake, it’s all utter dross listed on a hated shrinking exchange priced in a terminal decline currency ( thank the brexit scum ) The companies a Jurassic Park of declining business models. You can get 5.5 pc risk free on 3 month US T bills and you chase dividends on shyte to lose two thirds of your capital. Jesus tapdancing christ get the cash back while you can. This is toast, capital raise and dividend suspension will knock .30p off the price.
Yawn….there has never been a housing shortage, if you want one there are plenty to buy, affordable housing a different matter and nothing to do with volume. Core inflatiotion in uk out of control, both the Fed and dogshxt BOE will need to raise rates several more times, uk property market starting another 6/7 year down cycle, watch this space, credit junkie uk populus in for an unlubed axx-fxxking. Weak sterling ( thank the brexit imbeciles ) sucking in inflation. Psmn will be sub 7 quid by Spring. Short it-buy in the money puts. In fact the uk market one big short, terminal.
Brexit, the gift that just keeps on giving.
@jap. Yeah, the advice would be you’re an idiot. You can buy quality US growth but you think buying a shagged out declining business model debt ridden badly managed terminal decline about to suspend its dividend falling knife mob’ telco would be “ an investment “? Jesus tapdancing christ there are some thickos on here, no wonder the U.K. ended up with brexit.
@ m jones. Rolls Royce was 4.50 in 2014 and is now 1.40….buy low sell high? You mean if you actually managed to time buying in at .70p you may have been ok? Seven of the other 8 years it was in freefall. Another dog btw which will be .50p in a year like this.
Get out and fast, did tell you despite the muppets on here constant abuse….. The markets are going to tank over the summer, the only positions I now have are three short ( puts ) positions. Liquidity will drain from the markets, as the US floods market with T Bills post debt agreement, core inflation up everywhere is a disaster and rates will keep rising as they can’t allow core to get out of control, markets could tank 20 pc plus with emphasis on plus, get into cash, will be able to buy in the autumn bargains everywhere, the blow off top in a handful of tech names the poster child of the market rolling over. As for Vod, the business model is in terminal decline and monster debt, there is nothing to salvage. It was curtains for this shxt 5 years ago. You just sell it and avoid U.K. dividend stocks, they are capital destructive rubbish.
Odd people talking about cash in the bank, debt is 34 billion PLUS 12 billion in lease liabilities, 46 billion debt for a company the market considers has a break up value of 21b. Good luck with that😂😂😂
This dying a death since Feb 2020…..chart just dreadful….one long fall, lower highs…..has gone through every support level…another people have bought for yield then watched the capital erode at a faster rate. U.K. index really is a toilet.
Weeeeee down it goes. Dividend will be suspended or cut by two thirds in the next couple of weeks, bondholders will demand it. Sub .50p. Still 40pc return to be made on a short, puts are expensive now tho so the market knows this is fkd. In fact you could short pretty much anything on the ftse, U.K. going into multi year recession and sterling falling hard again, will go to parity with usd. Weak sterling sucking in inflation as U.K. imports over 70pc of everything it uses. Thank the tories and Farage’ brexit insanity, ten years of terrible leadership coming home to roost. Come back Tony Blair.
Aviva a capital destructive dog. Has lost half its value since 2007 and 22pc since Andy briggs left. Will follow the likes of abrdn and Phnx down the toilet.