Member Info for polyglot

The future for Barclays has been clear for eighteen months. First get a substantial American contingent on the Board. Done. Second wait till the investment bank is separated. Third make this section profitable but not very. Fourth wait till the Americans post a hefty fine. Fifth wait for the Brits to do likewise then sell the investment bank and claim success. Time scale end 2018. Likely share price 260 - 280.

So bad has been the launch of the new trading site that even for out-of-touch executives there must surely be a reason other than total incompetence. It is that Barclays really wants to get out of being a broker but thought it has a crafty method of getting some extra money. As person with two accounts and less than half a million in shares it would actually cost me nearly £400 a year (good if your customers are apathetic) eventhough it can be got almost for free elsewhere. So 1. they just want rich customers 2. they probably want to get rid of some of the personnel in Scotland. 3. As to whether they designed the new site out of pure incompetence I doubt but it clearly offers less than the old site. Barclays are now getting out of almost anything but the USA and the UK which tallies with the 5 board members ex of JP Morgan. I doubt if, come Brexit, JP Morgan will try a direct bid (even the foolish UK won't wear that) but a joint venture cant be excluded. First they will reintroduce the dividend which will raise the share price to 220-240 and any foreign approach will give investors the sight of the 300 p they seem so to desire.

Much nonsense continues about the likely future price of Barclays ordinary still close to the 184 I forecast 6 or wo months ago. With the footsie at near an all time high and an expectation that the price will fall to 6700-6800 in the next six months there is a strong likelihood of a fall in this share as well. A 10% fall will bring it to around 170 which is what JP Morgan alone among the brokers think it will fall to (others are hopelessly optimistic). A fall to say 140 is unthinkable because, and for no other reason, JP Morgan will be putting in a bid. Barclays is nevertheless in a relatively poor state with high current operating costs, several big fines likely to come its way and Brexit bearing down on the economy. Of course if we get a vote on the referendum (easily carried to stop this nonsense) all will change.

Most chat seems to be about short term price movements but what about the longer term and what factors will affect the bank. Barclays are getting out of Europe and Africa (though the latter still not complete) and into the USA yet this is where they failed to make any progress recently in bonds while American banks boomed. What evidence is there that America will welcome them or that the US will continue to boom? The experience of large British firms in the USA has been dismal e.g. ICI, Asda, BP, Vodaphone. I note only that five of their directors are ex JP Morgan. Can we expect a bid and how would the UK Government react? How well is the Chief Executive doing? Judging by his halting performance in the recent video and his mess-up re. the whistleblower not so well. Non-performing loans are hardly reduced: still nearly 20 billion. While FTSE is still peaking ,Tee share price now down by 20% since the recent peaks and probably has farther to go since the UK economy about to nosedive. I think JP Morgan got it about right at 186, maybe much lower.