George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Automated warehouses whether by Ocado or anyone else are an absolute MUST ..
Society just does not have enough labour for the economy needs , something made even more difficult on going by an ageing society and a falling birth rate
so... automation isnt something that has reached some kind of saturation or over competition ....it is an area that is actually much in need ..... competition usually suggests there is a big market out there from which to take some market share ....nobody wants or even aims to take the whole market
" I hope Steiner has a tough time at the AGM: after twenty + years building a top three UK on-line business and an advanced tech product he's still making a loss "
He has put together a tidy sum of £1.5 Billion of tax credits as a result of those "losses" .... and developing robotic tech is a long,long journey when starting from humble beginnings ... he would have been stupid to have created profits and paid taxes on them...what for? ..when there was still so much further to push the tech development
As has been written...a 100 engineers and years taken to integrate AI into a robotic arm just to be able to pick up products of different sizes,weights, textures etc ..
When tech problems get solved, the end result looks, well somewhat obvious and there is little to show for the immense amount of work that goes into solving such complex issues
and yes...the "losses" as a result of amortisation, depreciation etc ... and a tidy sum of £428m of liabilities just waiting to move across into revenues
Yes..the model is very much misunderstood
and of course there are posters who would not anyone to drill down and understand the model
Have a look back during the period of the ex-CEO and see how much capital he pushed through into R&D and related plant and equipment and check out some press releases related to R&D developments ..... any strategy has involved in investing for the future, not just executing the current one
In terms of competition, BT has always been aware of competition ... in fact they know the market reviews their performance as not just related to UK competitors for revenue, but against European peers in terms of P&L,KPI performance innovation etc etc ...
Kevin Johnson, CEO said: "We are providing this range of outcomes for the year, in response to shareholder request for "worst case scenarios"
says it all Fevertreeman
No money unless Johnson puts £50K in minimum
Shares also dumped as a raspberry,I suspect, to awarding Options in January ....soon made sure that price wont show up for a while !!!
( Not invested )
The market doesn't care about MCAP
Market has far more (worrying) things to be concerned about and price shares on ....
" pathetic margins & ROCE etc etc"
I will play the devil´s advocate and maybe pretend to be the BOD fighting back on criticisms to keep some hope and sense of fighting through the issues
The interesting thing is that the new contracts
Alsa - margins of 12% av. ROCE 23%
Shuttle - margins of 10% av. ROCE 31%
I think that the BOD and the new UK/German and US Bus Leaders are fighting back on a number of issues
US Bus Driver shortages down to 2% ...990 new drivers and training in 2023 is not bad effort
US Bus driver shortage down to 6% , only 17% of applications get offered a position and of those 15% dont take the position offered , despite the pay increase !!
Imagine what it would be without the pay increase !!
Germany 70 new train drivers trained compared to 22 in 2022
1000 new drivers needed within their operating region !!!
The revenue in Transit up 10% but the loss of support funding of $44m knocked the profit down , and tech like Google etc cut down on volume cost $25m as job losses increased ...14 new contracts to offset that with $54m ..fighting back !!
Josey
a full takeover is a pretty big undertaking at a time when the business needs absolute full attention of the BOD and indeed Cosmen as Deputy Chairman and indeed a new interim CFO to ensure stability
If Cosmen is indeed going along with the US Bus sale to get cash to invest in ALSA model then I am not sure he would look at a takeover at the moment ???.... plus all the problems going on in the world, inflation, FED, US Election,geo-politics etc ...
Wealth
in US Bus ...for the driver shortage to get down to 2% by end of Dec 2023, recruiting 990 drivers ... they ended up spending more than budgeted on driver recruitment and training , with the 2% possibly ending up better than they had expected ... so I suspect the costs ate into the margin and profit ..$10M driver costs in 2023
They did say that in Q4 there was a $8m increases, net of wage increases and driver training ... and that Q4 was more of a picture than the obvious issues in H1
for Q1 yes I was expecting better revenue ... sounds like the school break was in Q1 this year rather than Q2 last year (the earlier than usual spring break)
If you put " snow storms USA 2024" into google ..there are quite a few references ...and I have not delved deeper into the storm articles ......but on face value I would say there is "some" truth into the snow issue but I cant say to what extent
Wealth
I did say ..today´s drop "made worse" by USA and merely suggesting that , that news causing the shorters to add on their inflation hedge , which came out today
I wasnt actually meaning to dip into the situation related to the BOD ...sorry for confusion
The FED is in a trap now ....falling GDP and still high inflation
They are going to have to buy any new debt with bids over a set Yield...so they can keep a hold of the yield ... especially if the likes of China plays a game and dumps 10y Treasuries to push the yield up, forcing the FED hand in the longer end
If the 10Y goes to 4.8 say then shares will suffer
This has nothing to do with the BOD
Today´s drop made worse by the US GDP and PCE figure .... good for shorters .... BOD cant predict the US economy figure coming in worse than even the LOWEST estimate ...
Shorters were betting on inflation getting worse ...the BOD EBIT estimates somewhat dependent on that being better over the year
Fleccy
yes, but of course,shorters know in advance what they will have to pay on ex-div day....they no doubt have the cash from selling the borrowed shorts earlier on... and depending on general market sentiment will obviously want to make sure they can knock the price further after ex-div ..... as you say a basic ex-div deduction of the SP makes the div payment equal to the extra gain on the short "profit"
Stupmy
I say it as a number of more experienced posters have made that point on different occasions ..
On the face of it I would be surprised if the new CEO would cut the DIV at this stage, given they expect to maintain year end guidance of FCF at the upper end of £1.2 billion and her presenting more or less the previous CEO result
What I suspect may be her throw out could be what her expectation of div cover to be...as well as any view on capital allocation for the new financial year
..and...whether..they decide to make any provision for the court case outcome
If there is a fine at some point there may well be room for an Appeal, plus..depending what the fine might or might not be...to pay ..over a period of time
"I've spotted the occasional 0.47, .48, .49 "
I usually see those after coming down from above 0.5%, but then you wont know of any further reductions from that..
Many people have said that it is the NET short position that is notified
So..if an investment bank is 0.9 short but 0.6 long....then the net short of 0.3 isnt notified in that case
Which is why you dont see many Investment bank notifications
Amongst other things, like improving the performance of the Business division....the market wants to see the new CEO deliver her stategy and captial allocation plans ..and have any court case liability risk removed
"The provision isn't just a write off; it will have significant cash outflows associated"
A provision isnt a write off.
A provision is a liability for a future known cost
Once that cost is paid ( cash outflow) the corresponding provision amount is removed , as it is no longer a liability
Barneysmb
I think 202 and 2023 and generally been shown to have been somewhat difficult to "forecast" many,many things ..across Central Banks, Government Agencies, Company Analysts, National Statistic Offices, Economists, etc,etc ...and I have seen a number of Guidances change ..mostly for the worse in 2023 as a result of inflation predictions, earnings etc turning out to be somewhat optimistic....
...so..I tend to give more leeway towards forecasts that get amended in times of data volatility ..although shareholders do like these things to be accurate of course .... in reality I dont actually think it is that easy......
The more data we have the less likely the "forecasts" are going to be right !!!
I read the Results Report through from beginning to end ..and ..boy..there is a lot of complexity to each of the Divisions here and quite a few things outside of the main company control, which then has to be adjusted and reacted to.. just dealing with the WMCA and up through to the DofT in negotiating grants and subsidies ....it like getting blood from a stone ...thank goodness Jan 2025 sees a new negotiating table...enough is enough.... unprofitable routes will go, unless cash is forthcoming
In terms of responsibilities..I was referring more to the work that has to be done and be accountable for
...I dont think it is that easy at all
Regards
Stamp "mellowing into the day to day at NEX"
Stamp "Just pulling a huge salary & doing little"
Guys
I suspect you dont fully get the full responsibilities of a CFO and the workload it entails...the figures shown on Results Day are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the spreadsheets and work related to financial data management within the business and ensuring everything is audit compliant etc... many new data systems have to be set up with each new contract win and integrated into the main systems of financial control ..they dont appear by magic , and the CFO has a lot of overall responsibility for that ...plus re-finance the bonds and meet lenders, etc etc
I suspect Stamp is in constant contact with each Team of US,Germany, Spain, Tendering etc.... finger in every pie ..
His presentations are very clear and he makes it look easy , but there is a lot to manage and have legal corporate responsibility for .