Member Info for Pogo001

Robs60

Thanks. Very interesting and GM confirms once again the opinion that ITV is implementing a value-building policy, not particularly interested in and most importantly not being forced by the financial situation, the issue of a possible merger or takeover. Looking at the development prospects on the horizon, there are not too many potential threats, but rather we should increasingly benefit from the reconstruction of the company's structure and the strong market position it has built. So either we sell ourselves dearly and on our terms, or the relative value and valuation of ITV will grow, forcing potential interested parties to increase the value of the presented offer. As for me, as a long-term investor with an investment horizon of at least 2027. As long as the company pays regular and large dividends, and its prospects remain stable with a focus on growth, I am most in favor of a reasonable approach by the CEO to the issue of takeovers or mergers.

Winstanley

These data are not a surprise. A forward-looking and intelligent ITV investor should have taken them into account long ago. Especially since the statistics of entries are public, and based on them one can forecast the size of revenues. Which I do alone regularly too. The stock market is not a place for trolls and morons, and a large amount of financial information about companies is relatively easy to find. You just have to know what and how to look for. According to the textbook principle "Not for dummies".

5eightsaccount

Cumulative inflation for the period 2014-2024 inclusive (11 years) is around 41%. So I disagree with your assessment that Liberty breakeven price is now close to 52p. The real earnings on the entire portfolio probably did not exceed cumulative inflation, so it is difficult to talk about any profits. Of course, looking at the numbers, price averaging may look quite good, but taking into account the time value of money, in order to treat earlier profits as profits and not reduction of losses, it is necessary to exit the investment at a price in the range of £1.8-2.

I understand that many people do not understand the concept of "time value of money" but oh well, the knowledge (academic too) is widely available.

(2)

.... of ITV. Dame had to solve all the accumulated problems related to the issue of debt and the growing costs of its service and at the same time quickly change the path of its development. I think that in the initial phase, few people thought that she would succeed. She was welcomed by Liberty as a necessary evil, buying time to limit losses. The whole situation took place in the period of covid-19 and Russia's aggression against Ukraine combined with a strike on the European energy system and related markets. This, together with changes in the multimedia and advertising market, the development of streaming and the issue of AI, additionally complicated the external situation and extended the process of ITV's recovery from the crisis. However, I believe that at least from 2023, a change in the approach to ITV is visible. A change in which both the successes of the management and the development potential of the company are seen. Here, it is enough to simply look at short positions, which clearly show the specific involvement in the share capital of ITV by large funds. Liberty continues to pursue a policy of gradual price averaging, at least by inflationary values. However, voices suggesting its willingness to exit the investment are heard more often. Price stabilization in a narrow fluctuation band (especially for companies with a share of small investors exceeding 70% in real terms) is a standard period of share buybacks by large players, which, when a specific company improves its financial indicators, always leads to a sudden breakout and some type of change in the capital arrangements concerning it - a takeover, merger or entry of a single strong investor. In this case, due to the external situation (war, strikes in the USA, etc.), it is possible to drag out over such a long period of time. Liberty, on the other hand, is a large player who knows exactly the value of its ITV share package and its potential significance for players wanting to take over ITV. And the passing of time favors the growth of the value of this package, of which everyone on the market is aware. I believe that with this in mind, it will not sell cheaply. Even assuming certain profits achieved over the 10 years on this package - they really do not represent much more than inflation, it means a desire to get rid of this package at around £2. Of course Liberty may want to achieve other benefits not necessarily related to the valuation of ITV, which its shareholders will not see in the potential takeover price. And that is my opinion on the subject.

(1)

5eightsaccount

You possible right about Liberty. In the first years they simply wanted to cash in on a potential merger or takeover of ITV, which had a big chance. In my opinion, as a result of the general collapse of the media market, the dynamic entry of streaming companies into the market, providing an easily sellable product, and the resulting drop in profit levels and the increase in ITV's debt - which, combined with the lack of action by successive governments to protect their British market and their local companies, Liberty, as the owner of a significant block of shares, simply had no choice. Market changes that the previous management of the company did not keep up with, combined with the loss of capitalization had to lead to either a quick exit from the investment (combined with at least a 50% write-off of its value), or an attempt to wait out the crisis under new management and a new CEO, while reducing the average purchase price. So what is painful for small and medium-sized investors was simply necessary for Liberty from the point of view of the scale of the investment. Dame as the new CEO became a chance to change the position and directions of ITV's development. The market was fully aware of the enormity of the tasks to be performed, although not all the corpses hidden in the closet, such as the huge debt of ITV. Dame....

(2)

Janus1

...largest in Europe. In addition, with a strong financial position and established position. This is worth even 50% of the premium. In addition, there are the personal ambitions of Dame. So counting on a takeover in the region of £1.20-1.50 is simply stupidity. In my opinion, the current situation results from the desire to beat the competition to the takeover of ITV assets. Things will really get interesting when a specific financial offer is made. I think that then we will meet a few new players. The aforementioned reluctance of City does not mean that it will not want to earn money. It also does not mean that the millions of shares that have been milled for several years in the price range of 60-80p are not milled without a reason. Because if we look at the structure of the shareholding, 5 years ago over 70% of the shares were in the hands of small shareholders. I will venture to predict that currently after that time at least 1/3 of these shares lie safely in the hands of large investors and was accumulated for 5 years calmly and without emotion. Such are the laws of the market. This is probably partly seen by the board, for whom the current turmoil and the earlier buyback are a way to a potential fight against a hostile takeover. Because another few years of such fun and finally someone will count those 55-60% of ITV shares in big hands and simply agree on a takeover. What is the conclusion. Time is running out for potential ITV buyers. It will take very little for us to see some real movement in the market.

(1)

Janus 1

Everyone knows that for years, and probably before Dame came along, ITV as a company has had bad press and has been overlooked by City analysts. I am not sure whether the most important reason for this state of affairs is the issue of the board and generally personal issues, political issues, or that several people from that group have clearly been "burned"on ITV shares. From what I have heard, personal ambitions also come into play and the fact that Dame clearly does not care about these people, simply doing his job. To the whole situation, one should add the generally prevailing not the best perception of the entire sector and terrestrial television by all analysts, who basically focus on the American Big 7, and currently on AI. However, for some time now, there have been clear changes in the perception of the sector, because those who have remained on the market are strengthening their position and the rates of return on dividends are becoming more and more tempting. This is also causing more and more interest in acquisitions and mergers. Let's not be surprised, but companies that regularly pay 5-7% dividends, have good indicators and P/E well below the market average must arouse such interest. So in the case of ITV, the question is not IF, but rather WHEN a specific offer will appear. ITV does not have to hurry here. It is calmly pursuing its own development path, raising the valuations of its own assets and building a strong market position. And this position raises visible concerns from competitors such as Channel 4. There is also visible fear of a potential takeover of ITV by an even stronger player, although of course all the unfavourable comments speak of the need to maintain the independence of this station, mission etc. etc. In my opinion, the current valuation of STUDIO at around £3 billion is still underestimated. Firstly, it is based on the relative decline in financial indicators and generated profits due to last year's industry strike in the US, as well as the situation after the wave of fires in California. Secondly, the scale of STUDIO's operations, production scheme, licenses held, etc., all of this also requires valuation with a bonus much larger than the standard 20%. From my estimates, a reasonable valuation of this business is £3.5-4 billion. The rest of the company, whether terrestrial television but also the entire streaming and advertising part and external companies is valued by independent observers at around £1-1.2 billion. So today the fair value of ITV is around £4.5-5.2 billion, which gives us a share price in the range of £1.2-1.40. I believe that this is the share price under which no one from the ITV board will undertake any serious talks about a takeover or merger. To this must be added a certain premium, in my opinion greater than the potential 20%, because by buying ITV or STUDIO itself we are buying the largest player in this industry on the UK market and one of the largest in Europe.

The number and volume of transactions are lower than usual. And that means that we are all waiting for specifics. Yesterday's quotations showed that nothing about ITV shares should surprise us.

It looks like we will get to know the financial results after the end of today's trading session. As for interest rates, we have a small step in the right direction, assuming that all expect next cuts and that interest rates will fall to 3.5% by the end of the year. This is certainly good news for the whole market, and especially for dividend companies like ITV. We will wait until May 22 for the last dividend to be paid (I will welcome this £15.8k with joy). As for the mess with over 120 million shares - here too the whole situation will probably clear up soon, or at least point us in the right direction. Still waiting for a UK-USA deal, with possible implications for full UK market and ITV. We have a third day of correction in the price of ITV shares. So in my humble opinion it is time for some bigger moves, and hopefully upwards.

Assuming: on the one hand worse than expected financial results or forecasts, and on the other the opposite situation + yesterday's trading volume of shares 100+ milion hanging over the market "who why what?", dividend payment, potential interest rate cut and UK-US agreement - as for my in next a couple trading days the range of share price fluctuations is £0.74 to £1 +

Of course this is the point of view of the owner of ITV shares. However, one thing that is certain is that in the case of positive decisions for ITV, short positions will be very painful for their owners. In any case, like the rest of the market, I am waiting for official information from the company and RNS.

It looks interesting. I won't be tempted to theories, who what why? On the other hand, we are talking about about 2.5% of the company's shares. With this scale of the transaction, we are not talking about transferring shares from one portfolio to another of the same owner, but rather some specific transaction. Maybe finally the shares that have been accumulated on the market for a long time by someone (as we have talked about many times) have finally ended up in the pocket of a specific buyer. If so, with this scale, RNS should show something, although if the buyer does not exceed the limits, then not necessarily. In any case, if such large transactions are already taking place, then we will probably all soon find out what it was all about. Personally, I think that this will be a signal driving the growth of ITV shares price, or as a minimum stabilization shares price around 80p level. With the current valuation, market prospects, etc. I do not believe that without a sudden sell-off of shares on all financial markets, panic or unexpected events on the international stage there is room for the ITV share price to fall below 70p combined with stabilization of the quotes in this area. In any case, I think that today's situation will soon become clearer, or at least allow us to limit speculation to specific events. Well, let's wait. For now tomorrow, we have financial results with forecasts and in a few days later the dividend payment. The second thing always, guarantees a return of some funds to the ITV share market as a reinvestment.

One more.

The number of idiots on this forum is growing. FILTERS are working fine..

All the best for the real long-term ITV shareholders

Tomorrow is the time of financial reports on ITV. On Friday probably a cut in the interest rate in the UK. One thing is for sure. At the price level of around 78p we have a chance to see at least a 5% change in price. So someone will be hurt.

Today at this time the volume and number of transactions are definitely below average. Those who were supposed to sell are waiting for a chance to buy. Tomorrow we will see who it will hurt more. On May 22 a decent dividend will be paid for all long term shareholders.

Reading the comments on this and other forums, I have the strange impression that many multiple account trolls, but also many speculative investors, are desperately want the ITV share price to fall. From my point of view, the more shares are sold by impatient investors and end up in strong hands, the better. So I will withhold my commentary on the pointless discussion about Trump's plans, which, in my opinion, apart from their stupidity and lack of technical feasibility, will remain just plans and today serve to divert public interest from the growing problems of this administration and the failures of its policies. No one will make a poor man a millionaire. No one will teach anyone to think and make rational investment decisions. I recommend observing the level of volume and the structure of orders on both sides of the market.

Carrington

Good luck. Everyone makes their own investment decisions.

Fear has big eyes. Fueling negative opinions about the market and ITV has always ended with strong increases in share prices. For our forum's shorters: ... I can only wish you to open as many positions as possible and to fully utilize financial leverage by them.

I don't think so that's a problem for ITV.

""..The president’s plans as expressed on his Truth Social platform last night, which target only film not television, have bubbled up with media set for a big set of quarterly earnings, and potential CEO commentary, this week including Disney up Wednesday and WBD and Paramount on Thursday...""

In addition, President Trump's policy is generally unpredictable. Much more dangerous for such tycoons as NETFLIX or Disney are the negative changes taking place in the American economy leading to the recession. On the other hand, moving away from left-wing idiotic ideas may limit the losses incurred by producers in productions such as "Snow White". And this is rather a positive aspect of this term. Any potential correction in the ITV share price should be treated as a buying opportunity. When the supply of shares disappears at the price level of 77-82 p, and large blocks of shares ultimately change their place - we will probably expect a stronger increase in the share price. We will also see what impact the financial results presented on May 8 will have on the ITV share price. In my opinion, we should expect another improvement in the indicators, but as usual, forecasts are important. On both of these issues, the current price of 80p suggests a possible attempt to strike the supply side. Theoretically, the risk of price falling is smaller than its increase (70:30). However, considering only the size of the risk of a specific direction of price change, without considering all other factors, can be painful. Especially when our action is based on financial leverage. On the other hand, a long-term investor holding shares does not really risk much here. The price level may encourage speculation, but looking at the issue of risk of profit to loss, at least for me, it is too big. And myself, considering the issue of reinvesting my dividend after 22 May, have mixed feelings as usual. The £0.80-£1.00 or £0.75 option have their advantages and disadvantages. So I will simply adjust to the current state, although personally I think it will be a range of £0.80-£1.00.

As you can see from the dynamics of the volume growth, all small investors who were supposed to sell their shares have already done so. In my opinion from current volume of around 13 million, around 40% were bought typically speculatively. When this shares will be sold again (this time in the right hands) we will know the strength of the market. So let's wait for the decisions when the current trading volume exceeds 15-15.5 million shares. In the meantime, I will not be surprised by the level of 77 pence. As for the direction of changes, we will close Friday above 86 pence. But this is just my forecast....

NasCan

As a law this Canadian State Pension Fund has full authority to short this shares.... Everything is legal if they hedge positions in the share portfolio held. This fund has been present in ITV capital for a long time and with a shares purchase price of around 60-65p it makes good profits from dividends too. And I guarantee you that it only hedges a small part of the ITV shares held as standard. They made long term investment and I wrote about a couple times before.

"Squeezing the lemon" should not disturb thinking. And this is the principle I have been following for years, and in investing I try to plan my investments sensibly. I also know my financial possibilities exactly. So now I will calmly look at what will happen today and in the coming days and calmly wait until May 22 for the payment of £15,830 from the dividend to which I am entitled. As for the assessment of the current situation, I have already said many times, it will be much, much more expensive. But this is, as usual, a subjective assessment of a person who owns a modest 490k ITV shares after today's purchases. All the best for the real long-term ITV shareholders.

Taking advantage of the current turmoil I bought 10,300 shares at an average price of 78.54 (with fees)