The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Shaa, judging by the build up of buys going through seems I'm not the only one with that hunch. For risk/reward I've not found anything that comes close to this which is why I'm still here topping up as I go along. But IMO the pendulum pivots on Friday so then starts to swing the other way if Art still incapable off pulling off what he has been very well remunerated to do where regardless of obstacles he has a very clear mandate!!!
Further; while some love to come out with the line "It's only post news that counts" cobblers, just imagine every point gain now will be multiplied say 5 times later so bring it on, the higher the springboard is set the better.
Welcome to another Monday in Arthur's world.I for one am expecting a positive result this week in whatever form that takes--not an unreasonable expectation after nearly 3 years!-- and would hope the earlier the better to allow the sp to gain some traction before the long weekend.
Friday, though hardly perfect would be better than not at all, else by then I fear the writing is on the wall he will merely drop the end year filing on or around May 12th with the same old cut and paste twaddle with some more jam tomorrow sugar coating in his MD&A. Even if he finally has something substantive to buoy the market IMO it should be released separately for full effect as opposed to an end of year add on but again beggars can't be choosers so we will just have to bite the bullet with a smile should that happen..
I accept news today difficult due to time zone issues but tomorrow and rest of the week there has to be a good chance and sp/volume which ko'd last week should continue to represent that.
If nothing by Friday Art will be receiving both barrels from me;it wont be for the faint hearted so will not appear here
GLA Fingers crossed or whatever you're happy with.
Good morning fellow Coplers. Even while isolating with too much time on my hands I do admit I could do without the tedious daily ritual of logging on to see if Art has finally sent the RNS we're all eagerly awaiting or at least deemed to give us an update of where--with only this to work on--his last three years efforts have taken us.
However, putting Essar scurrilous claims aside, trying to put a positive spin on this to add to Jiv and Guitar thoughts. I'm beginning to think it may be ironic that the recent turmoil along with current POO may just play into our hands making this project more attractive to future investors than before.
While no expert so all IMO and I hope I am not merely seeing what I want to see. I think when, not if POO recovers or at least starts the long road back to $50/70 my guess end this year early next year for reasons I have covered previously, the Oil landscape may have changed somewhat. A lot of the smaller US shale boys may be gone or on their uppers and more importantly from our perspective, the majors who will not draw a line under their already pruned Capex rather, having seen what has just transpired with the more landlocked producers, be more selective, hence our lower-end cost more accessible with no pipeline required top quality product away from any potential ME turmoil when it rears it's ugly head again should if not already be on their radar once we have our current difficulties behind us.
Hopefully, Art has more unique sell points to add to that and is finalizing a deal as I type. I expect the news any day now and will be furious if he's thinking he can just casually mention at the end of year report 'we are close' or any other of his other banalities... let us hope that scenario does not become a reality!
Stay safe, stay hopeful all, our day will come.
The advantage of us rapidly approaching the expiry of our licence is that barring being invaded by Martians or Trump wanting to go out with a 'spectacular' Art really doesn't have time to fit in any more excuses for not completing the task so hopefully there is a reasonable chance he may finally achieve the goal [any goal] in short order as originally stated in Oct 2017
However once Corona reigned in and some sense of normality returns surely for the first few months we should see unprecedented demand with the airlines that survived booked months in advance and everyone filling up their cars and going for a drive just because they can. Not to mention bars restaurants and shops being besieged after several months closure along with industry dusting itself down and roaring into action. The swinging 20's relived dare I say.
Where will the cash come from? It's my contention that the powers that be stop trying to treat the current recession, forthcoming depression like 2008 2 and realize it's not a banking crisis so stop printing money and trying to bolster the economy by feeding it in that way but to place real money in the hands of every citizen [based on needs if poss] and dress it up with a "Go spend it as a reward for enduring the last few months lockdown" Now that would boost the economy and with Art rolling out the rigs sending COPL sp to 6p......aaargh they can never take our dreams away from us.
Lest I forget....next week Arthur!!! I think 30 months to get this ball rolling is quite enough,don't you! Jut get it done for gods sake!
Imagine being able to hold your head high among your peers instead of them s******ing behind your back
Happy Easter
Good Friday All.
Once again I've been scrambling around for some facts/info and leaned on my industry exec friend who generally has his finger on the pulse,having time on his hands atm, for his considered opinion I will be rewarding him with a slap up dinner should this work out or fish and chips if not.[and send the bill to Art] The below are our combined thoughts only, which I hope may offer some succor to the long suffering LTH's over the Easter weekend as actually ties in so underlines a couple of posts from yesterday
Firstly,taking this from the rogue RNS "The Company understands that Essar Mauritius has now filed a claim in the High Court of Justice of England and Wales but has yet to formally serve ShoreCan with the claim".As he has some experience of a similar case this actually tickled him pointing out zero binding here as nothing has been achieved/lodged anywhere. The reason is likely as the High Court have pretty well closed up shop for the crisis,or at least being selective and even if accepted highly unlikely they would be able to attend to this before our Oct deadline.One thing we cannot comment on is Essar reasoning but we agreed they do seem to be trying to get some ammo behind them for some sort of nasty deal...failed here.
Now here's the good news. "The disagreement centres on the view that ShoreCan has not commenced funding of the $80 million agreed cumulative funding in Essar Nigeria" here he thought plain to see all we have to do is produce the requisite financing and job done,they're sunk, and said he couldn't see why Art hadn't simply put this to bed long ago as nothing here to deter a deal when any finance partner DD is attended to. He could see our frustration with Art dragging us into this mess but we both hope he surprises us and Essar with a fait accompli!
He did say this could prove to our advantage as may actually put a rocket up Art's backside. I was left wondering what size rocket that would require
I think safe to say we should fall into the same category as ME mentioned here but I hasten to add we are also free of the strife that plagues that part of the world and our oil meant to be a bonny bit better.https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/middle-east-seen-as-haven-for-big-energy-projects-as-n-america-arctic-reel-from-oil-price-crash/
Looks like there is some jockeying for position going on at the moment among the crucial players but I feel unlikely any of them will be bringing 'Let's keep over producing and bring the price to a new low' as their main sell point to the table...crossed fingers.
Since Corona has appeared Art has always maintained POO is not the problem but Corona is holding us up. I take it from that he means the logistics involved in an increasingly closed down world. Not insurmountable in this day and age I would have thought!
Good morning. I'm really hoping for news this week and by that I mean something substantive that needs reporting rather than hanging on for a cut and paste end year report with a tag on.
I did mention in my last post the comparison with Heritage re a buy out but forgot to mention in that instance it was done in fairly short order which again adds to the compelling attraction presented by COPL once/if Art gets it over the line.
While the continuing deterioration of the Corona situ along with POO volatility,where I still hold out hope the SA/ Russian spat may eventually be resolved, I am still a little nervous watching things unravel.
However on the positive side we have Art PN which he took post the onset of Corona but I do wonder if he would have done so if knew where it was leading. We IMO seem to have another benefactor supporting us else the figures just don't add up, again purely IMO I am going to guess Kola/ Shorecan or our strategic investors who have supposedly done their due diligence and been on the periphery for several months now...either bodes well.Then as far as I know we have retained the staff who after their gravy train ran out have been working for pruned salaries to try get this concluded..and get their balance due I'm sure comes into play.
Without doubt the crew listed above have more inside info on what is truly going on than anyone else;certainly us lot on the bb ,even the mm's and the fact they are all still there fighting for the cause has to be a sign they still think it is a reality or that at least we are still in play.
We all know it's only that dam RNS with the news we really want not the endless surmising here that counts. Come om Art how long exactly can you keep calling it 'close' 'nearly there' etc without actually arriving? It's been around 30 months since you first made the 'short order' claim which we now know was an outright lie!!!!
Good post yesterday Jiv. Mirrors my thoughts which I have had corroborated by an industry exec. Unless you're passing on news just a shame we're not getting anything similar from our company which despite the better feel to the bb yesterday we all could really do with right now.
You don't really have to be an Oil analyst to estimate the av POO over the next 20/30 years;any of us could have a reasonable go at that and my guess is the figure we come up with will be nearer $100 to the current $30 [or less]...all IMO naturally.
Now: what rarely gets a mention is the recent Industry Majors malaise with Capex meaning many are always on the lookout for an investment where someone has already done the nasty groundwork for them,in our case really nasty, so we must be on the radar of those who are drilling close by especially as we are meant to be the 'meat in the sandwich'.
What interests me was the Kola/Shoreline involvement with Heritage Oil [OML30] who were bought out by Qatari's for many multiple their mc so Kola made a killing there which to me means surely he can see the same opportunity here which gives me some confidence he will not want to let this slip through his fingers.Art has also gleefully mentioned he sees much the same scenario. Love to be a fly on the wall when those two discussing this opportunity.
Cathy also had a similar role there and bases her optimism on Shoreline steering us to the same result. Obviously she would be more clued up on what transpired than me.
So come on the pair of you....just get this done with whatever it takes with anything you have at your disposal no matter how painful that may be now. No gain without pain!
GLA genuine holders
It seems Art is actually on top of things in his own untimely way.
As POO has bottomed out for now which can only be a good thing, I'm hoping sp can attain at least 0.15 pre news which I regard as a nice springboard to - - - - I'll let you fill in the gaps.
My dream benchmark pre news is 0.3 as that was a particularly nasty place that stuck in my craw back in 2018 but that may remain a dream.
I forgot to send this as a follow up yesterday:
While not wishing to rain on anyone's parade as Schlumberger my SPA of choice for reasons mentioned;over a year ago I asked Cathy if it was them.She replied Art had told her unlikely for reasons he would not elaborate on--that may well have changed! While not denying the case for Sch I feel with the more recent relationship building between NNPC and Chinese majors they may be at the forefront.But hey we're not going to kick anyone out of bed that fits our needs.
Welcome to a new week full of hope. Friday our first glimpse of happier days,shame it was marred by idiots that rendered the bb a joke with mindless multiple ramping/deramping,crowing,lies and inane bun fights with little for debate or readers consumption,you know who you are so kindly sod off elsewhere and thank you to the few serious contributors.
Art stepped up with a short term bridging loan to get us over the line. I've suggested this to him in the past avoiding the place/dilution,however previously he knew we weren't as close as I/we thought with Essar sabotaging progress so took his usual route. This time he must have been very confident-- all pretty well in place-- before proceeding so suggests Essar is behind us and conclusion very close--then we will get the 'real' blockbuster RNS .I can't imagine a PN was high on his agenda but with the matters taking longer than expected with funds depleted and seems no other cash forthcoming,as needs must!. The small amount a pointer,along with Fridays positive release, finalization close--he may have been tempted to put in a larger amount as sure better than cash in the bank; but if not required maybe he knew the downside of how that may be perceived by the market.
Further,the $200k surely already absorbed paying off some of our debts,utilities? More pertinently I think as now we are in the transitional phase from--according to sp--failed explorer, to near term producer then,please Art, mid-tier producer they may be incurring further costs,legal,flights,hotels etc and ancillary companies needed to facilitate the changes that may want cash owing to continue or if new to us may want to see something upfront..As we're so close to the finish line Art doesn't need anyone holding us up on top of the challenge presented by different jurisdictions,time zones,dawdling lawyers and partners so took the necessary step to oil the wheels. Perhaps one of our moving parts,finance or licence approval, wanted to see our books in better shape before proceeding?
Either way he has knowingly left little leeway so again I think surely something has to come very soon!!!
Excuse the length of this,I try to keep posts to a minimum showing my reasoning as best can rather than the one liner repeatedly posted approach favoured by many.
I still think next news not merely Alt Finance but will cover all [NNPC,PB,SPA back end finance] as Art has always maintained he intended. The former a potential 5+ bagger IMO and the latter considerably more with better to come as we progress
GLA ...The Eagle has Landed....just need to bring it home.
After avoiding the bb last week with all the dross here it looks like that they have disappeared to plague another bb so here's my tuppence worth to kick start the week which may help explain what is going on with our beloved COPL..all IMO
Firstly, I thought the consensus among the researched was that a place was a non issue due to us already taking our allotment for the year.
Now, Art has consistently said he will be issuing a blockbuster RNS with everything covered at the same time as opposed to drip feed the market with news as and when. Some time ago when I had good comms with him I queried this mentioning surely the spike created from this may attract traders and encourage some to grab profits at the first opportunity as opposed to slowly building the sp over a period with timed releases --I know he has to report anything as happens and not to his liking but there are are ways and means I'm pretty sure. He replied it is not in our interests to report piecemeal and seemingly is sticking to his belief.
Take that as you will but my thoughts were maybe he has some sweetheart deal lined up for some of his cronies re alt finance which may not be that good for sp so he'd rather hide it with all the good news and see how it all comes out in the wash. Given our current situation I'm not saying I am necessarily opposed to this.
Keeping the lights on. I know those --Shoreline.bod ,strategic investors to name a few-- who we hoped may step up in the past with some sort of a loan to date have not but hopefully with all the impediments supposedly behind us in the race to the finish perhaps that is no longer the case and we have been given a helping hand.
Finally, while this is now pretty well a binary play I am feeling more optimistic than at any time before
Good luck to all genuine holders
My guess the 15 mill sell was someone drawing a line in the sand at the end of Jan if no good news. if Art doesn't get his finger out I fear we'll start to see a lot more of that culminating in sell-off that we all want to avoid. My line keeps blowing in the wind but getting closer by the week.
However, today I do feel for once, no news is good news. While it seems I may have been wrong in my assumption we were due a Q report from the end of last year Art must know a lot were expecting one so could have used that to drop some bad news or if indeed it was due he may have found a loophole allowing him to delay if substantive news imminent.
What we do know is that by even the most optimistic calculations we are out of funds but the company still has the lights on so something must have facilitated that and more pertinently there must be a dam good reason for doing so.
I did hear Art is not responding to emails or taking calls--selectively I hope-- as he's busy along with travelling. Now that is what I have been wanting to hear every other time we were supposedly nearing a result but we never did...I always wondered with all that is involved how he had the time to have his feet up in London replying to our repetitive emails! Reason to be cheerful part 2.
So I think we should enjoy a long overdue sleep easy weekend fellow COPLers next week it's back to where's the bleeding news--- failing that just drink!
Phew, so even if we get the worst news imaginable it's reassuring the 50 day MA and Harami cross will ward off any sell-off/sp collapse.
Back in the real world. It's my hope that after Art promise to several parties of alt finance news last month --due diligence completed-followed by Cathy early Jan "we are hopeful of attaining a finance deal this month" this time we really are closing in. As I cannot see anything to be gained by Art taking the due report to the wire if negative news which he would be already aware of, I'm trying to be positive as in he may be trying to finalize the good stuff for inclusion.
Now according to Art: with Essar seemingly failing to run the clock down now realising it's in their best interests to cooperate to get the drill moving before they lose everything.NNPC/Buhari being in our court and keen for the same with PB to follow. A least a couple of majors waiting in the wings to be our SPA/poss, finance provider. Shoreline/Kola as we've still never heard a thing from still a worry but Cathy from her time at Heritage where she puts their success down to their partnership with them still confident they will come through for us and as mentioned the alt finance having done DD which should mean they are happy with the above...it's not all doom and gloom and most certainly if it doesn't happen serious questions have to asked of Art!
Of which: if we allow him a modicum of intelligence he doesn't need us or the personal mail he must be inundated with to tell him he has performed poorly here, he only needs to look in mirror-I regard his arrogance as a self-defence mechanism. So surely he as any reasonable man would; must want to redeem his character and turn this around if only for his own self-esteem....let's all hope so anyway.
Still crossed fingers guys
Stop-loss may stop a gradual decline but as happened to me is useless in a collapse where once it dropped me right at the lowest sp then before it came to my attention it had rebounded 20% meaning to add salt to my injury I had to chase the dam thing to get back in. Best avoided even if suits your strategy.
Still nothing from the worthless Art. However even after near two and a half years without him achieving near anything apart from destroying sp and what was left of his shabby reputation I'm still holding out hope for something positive next week.
The oft-repeated reasoning: the lack of a place despite the ever-growing pile of accounts receivables must mean he has something in the pipeline--as he has claimed to many parties-- so I'm hoping this time he means it and we're just running late as ever. If not why not place weeks ago?
Though not out of the question I don't think going under an issue as it would be criminal with what's at stake after so long for what would be a pittance. Even if it's beyond Art's ability to seal the deal in good time surely there are enough funds floating around for one of the bod or even his strategic investors to step up to keep the lights on until it's all finally lined up. If push comes to shove even Art could redeem himself with a personal loan!
Now, as Art's pitiful deal-making skills seem to be letting us down with so many options on the table I wonder if we should consider bringing someone else in to get it over the line? If so I happen to know an out of work English emigrant soon to arrive in Canada who likely would be keen to get some kind of credit on his nascent portfolio.I'm sure as our ambassador his undoubted charm would make up for his lack of knowledge and the fact he has a nice bit of arm candy in tow and a history of good works in Africa must help. Either way could not be any worse than Art. Perhaps Vis Astor could make himself useful for once and assist in this endeavour.
Try and have a good weekend all and if not just drink.
I'm not getting replies from Art or Cathy, the company seems to have clammed up tighter than Arts wallet at the bar. Now that can be an indication something brewing. We know news has to be due any day now and I believe it cannot be held back for the end of year report so if not today very good chance will be next Monday or Tuesday. Then as each day passes the likelihood of it landing grows, however, I struggle to believe even the slothful Art would take something so vital to the wire. Timeliness he believes merely refers to his latest Rolex. Have a good weekend all.
Thoughts
Re lack of cash, though not good, I have to keep reminding myself we are non-revenue producing so it's not like the empty bank balance is coming from poor business performance. It's actually more the case of by design as Art in our last place had taken the minimum he thought required to see us through to the long-awaited Alt Finance. The time before he attempted the same but failed so eventually had to reluctantly place so as mentioned that has not come to be which I hope indicates he is confident this time it will happen and pretty soon I'd of thought.
I also note he has previously mentioned when we were supposedly close to Alt finance several months ago we may have strategic investors coming on board. I'm wondering if he means from our bod [even Shoreline?]as according to Cathy he's currently in Calgary does that point towards him tying up loose ends with one of them or other local 'strategic' prospects? Pure supposition on my part but as he seems to prefer to spend his time in Lon and that's where he sets up his placements... let's hope.
Though on negligible volume I am relieved that a volatile sp such as this is actually holding up, even with a sniff of blue, indicating the vast majority of shareholders are still clinging on to hope this will come good and think unlikely we will go under, as no matter how far underwater you are a little is better than nothing when push comes to shove yet still no sell-off. We're all as aware as we can be of the current company predicament so I just wonder how long the wait and see will last....my guess, similar to me, a lot are hoping for sooner rather than later else it quickly could be a very different game
Something that I still feel weighs the risk-reward in favour of holding is, loathe that I am to say it, we may actually owe the useless Art a small debt of gratitude....actually, more like unintended consequences.
That being, in my summing up of mc/sp movement. Firstly we have to take into consideration the fundamentals which IMO have actually improved since the onset of our involvement with oml226 with the good news coming from the adjacent fields and the increase in POO Then we allow for dilution which we all signed up for, so in that case just need to reign in our expectations --if not anger at a huge chunk of it being the fault of a reckless CEO that I would not trust to manage his own pocket money. However, the wild card IMO is sentiment that couldn't be any lower which is where he has a major hand. Now IMO if he was a paid stooge sent in to decimate sp/mc by any means possible he couldn't have done a better job but the flip side is, if he actually manages to achieve a result then the return of positive market sentiment will surely further ignite the mother of all rerates.
So for the third time of recent, I'm saying it's all about this and maybe next week, if Art thinks he can just keep us hanging here like some mug punters indefinitely, that's it....I'm off, just not sure when