Member Info for Plethorus

Not hedge the entire year. They need to hedge the first and second quarter of 2020

I think Enquest is now in a new range. They need to hedge at these levels because most analysts think brent wont even average $65 in 2020. Because of the rights issue, EPS for Enquest was higher in 2016 and 2018 so maybe after the debt is reduced below $500m Enquest might undertake a buyback to reduce the number of shares outstanding. The buyback’s objective would be to return the number of shares outstanding to their old number.

Merry Christmas to everyone on this board.
Is $625m FCF your lowest estimate of FCF for 2020 and $800m your highest estimate of FCF HMhn?

Thanks Therapist. With Enquest set to increase Kraken production for the full year 2020 compared to 2019 by around 8kb/d net and with Kraken having operating costs of $10, shouldnt Enquest’s total opex per barrel go down to $20 instead of $22 currently?

Do you know what price does Enquest sell its PMI selligi oil for in relation to Brent

Most investors sell shares immediately on bad news. And because they all do it at the same time the share price get completely hammered. Muddy waters chose the best time technically (share price was at £26) and the short disclosure was just before the Christmas period of thin trading. So Muddy waters was guaranteed to make some money based purely on timing. As for the NMC health owners they have no choice but to buy shares in their own company to prop it up. They need to make a statement and buy several hundred million dollars worth of stock.

I will go for 70k-75k production for 2020 with a brent average of $65 because weather issues can affect production over the Winter.

Enquest should hedge Q1 production because we might get a seasonal drop in prices before picking up in Q2 and Q3

We’ll see over the next few days and weeks

If the company is insolvent yes but if they are playing around with account to boost an already profitable company then the likelihood is they prop it up because they have much more wealth at stake in it. I read the muddy waters report, it doesnt suggest the company is insolvent, it merely suggests that the company inflates profitability up from a likely 15% margin to 23% margin and executives are have maximised their incentive to increase ebitda to the detriment if shareholders and the benefit of their compensation

Abu Dhabi has $1 trillion in stocks and bonds. They wont like their biggest company which is listed in the london stock exchange being beaten up. It doesnt reflect well on them so they might strategically step in and nuke the muddy waters short. It might cost them as little as $100m-$200m given how small the free float is

Burford is a tiny company. Its not comparable to NmC health. If the supposed allegations are that shareholders that are wealthy and have private companies are playing behind the scenes games with inflated prices etc then these same wealthy shareholders can play another game and buy back stock just to burn the shorts. I doubt burford capital had a rich shareholder capable of saving them

It went back Up another 60% over the next few days after that 70% fall. True Rollercoaster stuff

Muddy waters will start unwinding over the next few days and weeks. They are not dumb enough to think the company is worth less than 50% of its old value

Too risky. They will take profits as soon as. Another report of Fosun or a strategic chinese investor might appear before then and burn their short. They can advertise their short profits without having to stay in it

Muddy waters have already made a substantial return so they might start to buy back the shares to take their profits so it could bounce very hard

A rebuttal is worth nothing if its not backed by some sort of hard facts so just saying these shorters are wrong might not stop the bleeding

There is almost always an over reaction on the downside so it could easily go much lower but without real fundamental basis

Barclays capital has a target of over £40. So whatever these guys are doing its highly unlikely the fair value is £16

I read the muddy waters report. There definitely seems to be a lot of smoke and maybe bad corporate governance. But as Tullow oil the other day which fell 70% on the day it downgrading its oil production, NMC can go back up 10 or 20% on an over reaction to the downside today.