Member Info for Plethorus

Hello. I mean 23 vs 22. So 22 we expect $70m FCF per month at $80 brent realised. Is Capex higher in 2023 vs 2022 or do we not know yet.

the BP vendor loan has been paid out from the new debt facility. Otherwise are capex requirements higher in 2023 than in 2022?

Hello Pelle,

Assuming $80 oil in 2023, is FCF in 2023 higher than 2022 because of lower capex and because the BP vendor loan ends?

It’s finally time for Enquest to surge in the next 18 months.

Enquest needs to hedge now so that we can guarantee stability of debt payments for 2021.

Does anyone have an idea when the open offer will happen?

Enquest is back. I think we can easily hit the 30p by the end of 2021. Debt will be lower, reserves will be the higher, production will be higher by year end and oil prices maybe a bit higher.
I use Cairn Energy as an indicator of how Enquest could be valued. Thats an unlevered small cap North Sea oil company

I can easily see Enquest @30p by the summer and @40p by year end

What gives you confidence that brent will be in the $70s by year end. From recent experience I think its better for brent to stay around $65 for a longer period of time than for it to breach $70 briefly and then crash back to the high 50s

Does anyone know when the Open offer will happen?

Enquest should start hedging at these prices. No one knows how the next 6 months will turn out.

Is the production forecast of 47k-52kb/d for 2021 due to maintenance and repairs at PM8 or is this the new production plateau for Enquest? As in, Excluding the new asset purchase, would enquest be able to produce more than 47k-52kb/d in 2022?

I havent posted in a while and I do not currently own any Enquest shares, but i was convinced pre Covid-19 that Enquest would buy another Magnus type asset as soon as it could from a big player looking to retreat and try and expand reserves and production. Between paying a dividend and growing the production I was always convinced Amjad would rather expand production after lowering debt. As it turns out, he is trying to hit two birds with one stone by expanding production and reserves and by dealing with the RCF due in Octobee 2021. By taking out a new facility, Enquest would have dealt with the October 21 RCF and would then have stronger production and reserves to pay down the remainder of the debt. There will definitely be an overhand because of the issuance of new shares but in a few months this could be a very good move. As with everything its all about timing.

Ok Thanks, I will

Hello,

Why are you assuming 40k barrels per day, are you allocating 20k barrels per day for another repayment or do you think they can only produce 40k barrels per day?
I thought their guidance is close to 60k barrels per day?

Ok so i can see that as of the end of October 2020 (Brent was still $39 back then), Enquest had outstanding senior credit facility of $385m due by October 2021. So the question is with Brent in the high 50s and possible hitting $60 by late Spring, will enquest be able to pay off the credit facility by October 2021. If they are able Enquest is a multibagger in 2021, if they arent cant they refinance or will they have to capital raise through share issuance

Hey.
I owned Enquest for a long time until Covid hit and sold all my shares roughly where they are trading now to pursue other short term plays.

Given the Saudi cuts, the vaccine rollout and the Democrate sweep of Congress, I feel now is the time or close to the time to get back into Enquest.

Does anyone know what Revolving credit facility payments are due in 2021 and what are the amounts?

Thank You

Even Madoff who had siphoned and lost billions in one of the biggest ponzi schemes of all time has had close to $14 billion recovered from his web and returned to victims. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/02/28/madoff-payout-to-victims-nears-14-billion/amp/
Irving Picard untangled his complex web and recovered that much. So the $4 billion might be recoverable or at least half of them. That much money doesn't go up in smoke.

https://m.khaleejtimes.com/business/corporate/nmcs-br-shetty-5-others-face-fraud-forgery-charges

I think at least $2 billion might be recoverable in hard assets (not cash but other businesses). Pretty much everything shetty owns is the property of NMC and maybe the same goes to the buttis. They might have both taken out huge loans and invested them into their other businesses, real estate and whatnot

Enquest cant cut capex drastically this year because some of the capex for this year is kraken western flank which has opec below $10 so we badly need that oil. Now is the only time enquest has some cash, as we get closer to the debt maturities in 2021 enquest wont be able to spend on capex so it needs to bit the bullet now to be stronger next year. In addition enquest should try and add a magnus or magnus + asset that involves no cash outlay and that breaks even in the high 20s. Magnus saved enquest last time. A magnus + would save enquest this time.