The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Might as well have some fun. Who wants to make a guess at how disgusting the next production RNS is. I'll start, Yanfolila produces 12,000 ounces in Q4 at an AISC of 2000. We met our annual guidance, yay! Kouroussa produced 3000 ounces for Q4. There is no AISC, but if there was it would be 10,000 an ounce.
FYI I bought a few before the last dilution RNS. No plans to sell, or buy any more. I've lost a bucket load on this in recent history. You have to laugh though. All I know is Dan always stuns you with outrageous misses and you are never prewarned.
It's impossible to give Dan the benefit of the doubt though isn't it. The track record here is simply dismal. He is either completely incompetent or of dubious moral character. Quite possibly both. There is no way to put a positive spin on two successive equity raises. Something like 50% of the company has been given away for next to nothing.
The last RNS stated that Yanfolila was on target to meet guidance. This implies they haven't already met the 80k ounces guidance at near year end. So if they do make guidance, I'd expect it to be at the lower end of production and high AISC. Not the beat we were almost promised a short while ago. Not mentioning Kouroussa means that production there is likely abysmal. Probably won't even make the 10k ounces when 30k ounces was the initial target. Also, they quietly changed the annual production of Kouroussa from 130k ounces to 100k ounces. Apparently they are moving the dirt and the plant is in full operation. So I can only conclude the issue is still artisinal depletion. It's a guess of course because Dan is never upfront about anything. I've lost alot here and am now resigned to putting it down to an expensive lesson. That Dan is a poor operator and less that transparent with the state of affairs is beyond dispute. I hope there is some upside here, but it now seems more likely to me that they will ultimately fail. Even if they manage to get things up and running, how long before there is another setback? History suggests it won't be that long. They have a huge best burden and if there is another setback the best you can hope for is more dilution and at worst it's bankrupt. Can anyone explain to me where the upside is? Oh yeah, $5000 per ounce gold.
Has anyone managed to find anything out about CIG? I know it's a supposedly a subsidiary of Coris bank. Do they have any other interests apart from Hum? Are they entirely funded and owned by Coris bank, or are there other investors there. Is anyone to do with Dan Betts an investor? I know Dan is incompetent, but trying to work out if something more sinister is at play.
Bonker, you are in and out of here. You portray yourself like a long term holder, but actually you just trade it. You've been calling big rises in the gold price over short time lines for ages. This is a fools errand and you have been wrong. Basing a thesis on 3000 gold is plain bonkers. I have nothing against you and wish you well, but you just talk your book pretending to be something you aren't.
CIG will own so many shares they can do what they like. Like sell the company to themselves for 1p. Who wins in that scenario? Them, us or both?
I suggested ages back that we should try and get rid of Dan. I guess that won't be a possibility going forward, unless CIG want to get rid of him. I would like to see anyone try to argue that he isn't utterly incompetent. I honestly wouldn't even be surprised if Dan and Co were large shareholders in CIG. Stealthily taking the company private. That's almost preferable to complete incompetence.
Well, I'll be voting against this issue anyway. The exploration and Dugbe money should be excluded for a start. I suspect they need to drill holes at Kouroussa to see where the gold actually is. I'd like a proper update on Kouroussa. Then we can start to assess if a raise is absolutely necessary and how much. What's Dan on these days? 600k+? I've got some cost cutting ideas...
Unbelievable, almost the day after I bought back in. The only positive I can see here is that the raise is at a higher price than the current share price. So we can hope it goes higher, but dreams of multi bagging are looking slim.
I think Dan mentioned the artisinal issue in the Q3 webcast. I could be wrong, that's from memory. It was definitely mentioned though.
They have stated that commercial production at Kouroussa is expected before year end. They have also stated several times that over 200k ounces are expected for 2024. The current AISC for Yanfolila is below $1500 and Kouroussa is expected to be lower. However, they only managed to pour 1000 ounces from Kouroussa in Q3. The reasons given were that artisinal depletion was greater than expected and more significantly contracted volumes were not being achieved by the mining contractor. The artisinal issue should disappear with increasing depth. They have brought addional mining equipment to Kouroussa and stated that mining is now occurring at expected levels. They have also stated that the plant is operating at expected capacity. So, as far as we know they are making money right now and a raise won't be required. The guided 10k ounces from Kouroussa for Q4, but stated that this is not guidance. Whatever that means! This is a downward revision from 30k ounces for Q3, due to the factors previously mentioned.
They have about $20 million as a buffer. Yanfolila should be throwing off about $15 to $20 million this quarter. With 10k ounces from Kouroussa, Q4 shouldn't be a loss. Then from Q1 they should be printing money. Indeed, at current gold prices it isn't that much of a stretch to see the debt free in 2024 and on a PE ratio of less than 1 at the current SP. I suspect the market wants to see this Kouroussa commercial production RNS. If that comes, I expect a significant rise. If it doesn't, fir whatever reason, then possibly more money will be required. Place your bets. We will find out onw way or another soon.
Imagine if the Kouroussa commercial production RNS came in before Christmas...
I am going to buy some tomorrow, even though I promised myself I wouldn't.
You are most welcome. I am totally out now! Now need to fight against the conditioning to read this board haha.
Too much risk for me. Any operational slip and they look as good as bankrupt. Maybe it can do x5 from here if everything goes smoothly, but 1000 ounces poured from Kouroussa is just appalling. If they have poured more than this it should have been communicated. I've tried to contact them and as always they aren't interested in answering shareholder questions. It's just not worth the time and stress anymore.
I'll offload the rest over the course of the day. Enough is enough. Never again Hummingbird. Good luck to all you long suffering holders. I really hope you make some money out of this.
Just sold 400000 of mine as a 300000 and a 100000. I've had enough. Still holding some as can't get a quote for them...
Or perhaps twitter or something?
I was wondering if you had a personal email I could contact you on? Just looking for some input on a few things. Best, PB
We just need to know why Kouroussa is taking so long. If it is about to come online at anything like the numbers touted then HUM should do well. The drill intercepts were outstanding.
Next update is signposted on presentation as end of October.
At a glance it looks like the $20 million extra cleared the overdraft. If I recall that is another $20 million of contingency. They always stated a slow ramp up of Kouroussa, but it would be nice to know why!