Member Info for Playboy007

And if they don't make 20,000 it's going to cost them money. If it was 15,000 for Q2 the cost would be 5000x180 (current delta over hedge). A cost of $900000. Nice one Dan.

The question remains, what are they really upto? The justification for a delist isn't really valid imo. In the circular it mentions new members of the board are going to be appointed from a different jurisdiction. Presumably that is the US. The largest shareholder Redmile are based in the US, but I believe they already have a seat on the board. Are they going to realist in the US? Could it be a reverse takeover and the target company are getting a seat on the board? Clearly something is already setup for post delisting. The percentage of voting already in the yes camp suggests that Redmile and another institutional investor have agreed. They must know what is about to occur and they are OK with it. If it was just one institution I'd be very worried, but 2 seems to suggest it might not be catastrophic for any holders. Bottom line, I think it's worth a pint here to see what transpires. It could easily be a x10 if the news is anything but dilute existing shareholders into oblivion. I doubt that is what is occurring if 2 institutions are up for it. You'll still be able to sell after delist. I think a couple of months and you'll find out. Fingers crossed for the reverse take over and US listing.

The ore mined in Q4 2023 was relatively low grade. That will be blended with higher grade material now being mined. I'd expect 2-3g/tonne this quarter. I'd expect this quarter will be the lowest number of ounces produced this year. Still, assuming they hit guidance then EBITDA should be around equal to the current MCAP.bdid someone say special dividend?

What does it look like now?

To be honest, I've had to be very strict with myself not to buy any. The value should have been so immense. As it stands, I think the casino is a more favourable prospect. Dan may pull a rabbit out of a hat, or be replaced, but insolvency looks like a very real prospect to me. It's hard to look away after being so invested for so long. We will see what the next update bring, cash constraints mean it can't be far away, whatever the outcome. I've put my HUM money into Thor. Trading on x1 cash flow with 100% ownership and no tax, but the mine life desperately needs to be extended. That said, I wouldn't follow me into any investments after my record here. My God it's been painful. Has anyone got any other goldies they can recommend? I am looking for less risky jurisdictions now, low debt and profitable.

Nobody knows what will happen to the prove of gold, only a fool would guess. Dan Betts said that years ago and I liked it. I can't believe they haven't sorted out new contractors yet, or resolved the issue. Clearly mobilisation could take a while, but you would think that the contingency would have been finalised and announced in this time. Why haven't they appointed new contractors yet or asking the ones still working to up their fleet? Are the staff happy to come and work for HUM directly, or is it going to take a year to train new people? What has the bank said about debt payment holidays? As always with HUM, I expect it the silence is indicative of more bad news. I can't believe with gold at 2300 that Dan has managed to balls it up so badly it's at 7p and looking grim. This should have been payday, even if things went wrong (like 2 raises so far). There is no way he should still have his job. I am still seething and hate that we live in a world where there are no consequences for his gross incompetence or deciet losing most of us a packet.

Great news, I'll adjust my numbers by 30%.

It's not 0p or 5p though. If they survived with dilution we have no idea what the potential is. Could be tops 10p if they have to raise 20 mil. Then it's 0p or 10p. You could do that at the roulette table in a fraction of the time and with no tax...

If they produce over 20k ounces this quarter it helps. If not, they will have to pay anything over $2150 on the shortfall. I think you'll be lucky if Yanfolila breaks even Q1 and Kouroussa is clearly loss making. Yanfolila production is stated as weighted to H2. So 20k would be your absolute top and 15k wouldn't be all that surprising. Assuming most ore is coming from SE, it's relatively low grade and a long trucking distance. They stated that AISC is expected at $1500 for the year. However, with H2 disproportionately responsible for production, you can reasonably deduce H1 will be higher. There will also be CAPEX for the underground and there is the not inconsiderable G&A. When you factor that in with the interest accrued on the large debt, it isn't hard to envisage a loss for Q1. There isn't much cash runway, so I expect additional funds are going to be required whatever transpires. The trouble is Coris stopped lending additional a while back and a raising at this point will lead to a lot of dilution. This is of course reliant on Coris agreeing to an extension of the debt payments. If they don't then this is dead. If they do, then as others have pointed out, you can't value the company until Coris agree to defer payment, the capital requitements and terms of additional funding are announced, a time line for resumption at Kouroussa is given. If you genuinely think there is no risk of HUM going under then I expect sooner or later you will lose all your money because you clearly aren't assessing risk realistically. We've not even started on the jurisdictional risk!

Any idea where you read that? If you have a link I'd appreciate it. I'll have a look through the old RNS because that would be a huge deal.

Balance sheet looks good to me. With any luck it's $100 million EBITDA per year going forward. It's 100% owned too. Most West African countries seem to take 20%. The tax rate in Nigeria is 30%, which is heft, but I belive they can offset some against write downs in plant asset value. I hope we get a dividend this year.

It's such a shame. I think we can all agree with gold over $2200 this should have been over £1 a share by now. Unfortunately, Dan has consistently messed it up. Pit wall failure because they changed the slope angle from design to be too steep, insufficient stockpiles, two security situations due to poor social governance, equipment failure due to poor award of contracts, out of control Aisc due to poor management aka Anthony, artisinal depletion, high salaries and Mayfair office, 1p share options, upgrade Yanfolila plant throughout before realising it's a smaller mine going forward, worst timed hedge (I bet this is costing them money atm). What have I missed? The list doesn't seem long enough.

I expect they will be thinking about yet another raise. The trouble is that the market cap is so low abs debt is so high. Coris maxed out. It doesn't look good. Personally, I think they are going under and shareholders are going to get wiped out. Hence, after 9 years I am fully out.

I've read enough of their news releases and been around to watch the carnage unfold in the aftermath. I'd be surprised if my speculation is that far off.

Well, there is the RNS. No material news, although it's good to see management have actually put boots on the ground in West Africa. In my opinion it doesn't bode well that they have gone out there and not reached a resolution. Clearly, the other 'stakeholders' said not interested. As ever, it would be good to know the details. Are Corica insisting on payment in full? Are Coris bank refusing to stump up more money or delay debt? Do you have enough money to pay Corica in full? If not, how much do you need to raise? Hummingbird never provide the answers you need and you can be assured that no clarity means bad news. No update on production numbers either, which means they are terrible. Bye bye Dan, you can leave now.

The trouble is Dan is useless and the people he employs are even worse. Does anyone remember the amazing Anthony, new COO, come to save the day? Absolutely full of it and inept.

They haven't announced that the bank have agreed to a delayed debt payback schedule...

We were never told where the CIG funds came from. Someone said recently that they have preemptive rights on any further raises. The only party I see benefiting from the current situation is CIG. I expect there will be a raise, which CIG will take up, and essentially aquire the company at a rock bottom valuation. They may well take the company private. Kouroussa will then ramp up and pay back Coris and make a shed load. Nothing for current holders though. There is absolutely no justification for letting things get this bad with corica. It just defies belief. I said ages ago we should try and force Dan out. Then I said to vote against the CIG raise. I think someone has done very nicely out of this. I appreciate this is speculation on my part, but it's the only logical conclusion I can draw. Anyone in their right mind and wanting to see the company succeed would have come to an arrangement with corica. Even paying the full 27 million would have been better than the current status quo.

I am curious what the bulls here think is going to happen? Are you not worried this is going to default on the debt and go into administration?

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