Member Info for Pitterpatter

Would suggest 60p + is possible on any given day with some good news. One has to bear in mind the recent jump from 30p to 75p + on JV news before claiming this as an impossibility. Personally I don’t agree with the 20p figures being thrown about but each to their own. The delay is due to CAMRA and from what I’ve seen posted, if I was a CAMRA employee I’d be loading up right now if I suspected the JV will go ahead. At the end of the day... there’s money to be made and it isn’t all black and white.

Agree completely. Even back at the start there were no strict guidelines for people to follow. The sooner they get a handle on that the sooner everything can return back to normal. Means to end job...

Personally i don’t see how having either schools or another activity open changes anything. The government need to strip it back to basics and focus on stopping the spread. I’m more likely to catch Covid via my daughter being at school as to what I am my daughters teacher drinking at her local pub, going to the gym or socialising with her family and friends or vice versa.

We either need barriers in place to prevent this or just remove the goddamn bridge. Closing one activity for another has to be the most unscientific solution that could have been presented ha

Title shares same mentality as the tards. If that minority were self isolating sensibly on any sign of illness or in general taking reasonable precaution rather than following such titles/mentality this would all be behind us already. The world we live in ehh...

*technique

Interesting trade technic

All very good and valid points Hollicat. I’d like to think that the majority of that is already factored into the current SP, it makes most sense overall + Covid factor.

So the whole play here is whether or not they can carry on along the lines of the original plan and then also make it profitable as they go. If so up we go, if not we shall see. Blue sky has to outweigh the grey at these levels though, just like before all this the grey possibly outweighed the blue when you consider the overall picture was pretty much the same minus covid factor.

A lot of bargains to be had all around, hopefully these turn out to be one of those. Have a pleasant day

@hoolicat

Interesting opinion however you contradict your own views within your conclusion.

Not tearing you down but interesting that you see the pub side as more profitable than the brewery side which as stated is much less profitable with tighter margins however it’s then a negative that they are taking a large sum on that whilst also maintaining a 40% stake in the combined JV with a bigger player moving forward. Oxymoron right.

Businesses are going to have to adapt and change to the climate moving forward. If successful SP will be higher, reverse and lower which then brings us back to current day.

Place ya bets...

It’s defiantly getting back into that territory.... all aboard.

Sales I cannot help with. From a friend whose partner works there however, her shifts are back to normal.

Initially they were reduced on re-open, however now she is back as normal. Make of it what you will :)

I’m going to assume you missed the question mark within the post I think you’re referring too. Was trying to get my head around the equalisation payment as the post before that was suggesting the 273m was for 40% which clearly it isn’t.

If the question however is in relation to the £1.50 I threw out then likewise I am also confused as 42p at the time of posting to £1.50 is not a 10 fold increase unless I’m missing something. You appear annoyed that I’m invested here. The funny thing is I don’t need a reason or have to explain it to anyone, I shall remain invested and likely even increase my holding until such a time I see fit to do otherwise.

Atb - PP

The Gerald Pontificus version is the one I quoted, has me in stitches every time. Small things please small minds though :)

Hey Fairdealer

There’s an age old video on YouTube called Buy The Dip. Pretty self explanatory and ties in with sheesh and giggles.

Opposing views are great, it’s what makes the market. My gut is fairly accurate overall and so my stubbornness sits alongside it. At the end of the day I’m following my own intuition as opposed to anyone else so on a win I take great joy whilst on the reverse I only have my self to blame both scenarios of which I can live with whilst learning along the way. It is what it is and will be what it will be. We can only position ourselves accordingly. GL mate

Yes and no. Carlsberg are a big name, especially to sit alongside the likes of Marston’s - so yes 60% with a juicy cash payment is plausible for a 40% return on top referencing the brewing side. Positive also considering the current environment.

As for shorting, we’re all aware of the spike it’ll cause when the shorters close and suddenly have to buy millions of shares back including the negative posters. One whiff of unexpected positive news and it’ll turn quicker than many are able to get back in whilst looking for rock bottom. That’s the risk the opposing side take.

What we have here is a failure to honestly and openly communicate whilst trying to buy the dip.

I’m in for a fair bit and will add further on weakness, seems rude not too. Each to their own though. I do not for one second buy into the notion that negative posters are here or anywhere looking out for PIs interests, they are here looking out for their own interests. None of us were born yesterday

Marston’s were £1.06 p/s before Covid took hold and averaged out around £1.20 + p/s for the 5 years before that. Again huge numbers to be throwing around but it is what it is - stick a Carlsberg JV on top and we have to end up somewhere more realistic than 20p per share moving forward. My best guess is that Carlsberg did SPs, we’re looking at £1.50 +

Just pinged you - JS

Would not be surprised if the current sells we’re seeing are from the minority that bought in around and under 3p. If so there aren’t many available for the MMs before they dry up and the move forward continues

Atb - PP

Bearing in mind that the £273m is an equalisation payment for 10% are we overlooking the fact that it values the new venture much higher than both the existing £580m and £200m combined over time ? Like 10x that initial figure

Caution is to be had across the board and within all companies.

The same argument and caution would have been paramount back in 2002 and again in 2009 - the dividing factor between which is was the hold intended for 5 days or 5 years.

As to answer fairdeals question I would expect the dividend to be reinstated within a couple of years tops, and with the SP at that time to then be sat much higher than it currently is today.

As to the divide between bulls and bears I’d contrast it more akin to longs vs shorts - traders vs investors. I can hold through a paper loss now if the end result is an even greater profit later. If anything I’d be increasing my position on weakness rather than getting myself in a twist, you know.

Yes I was just looking for a clearer picture on that. He took another £100k worth back in 2018. Can see plenty of director buys but no sells. Most likely all holding for the forward looking dividends right, I mean who could blame them.

At current SP this would come across as massively undervalued on a forward looking basis irrespective of the JV, that being the icing on the cake.

I love the use of the word could in that statement.

Bulls will be looking at the positive could‘s just as the bears are focusing on the negative could’s.

Time will tell. If I was a chairman on the other have I would not be putting in £50k of my own money if a RI could be imminent ^^

Check his chat history - Says it all. It’s either headed up if he’s in or emergency rights issue at much lower SPs if he isn’t. Absolutely zero substance