RE: DEAL8 Jan 2020 14:27
I was looking it over again yesterday and seems we have 1.9m oz proven pd equivalent at MT, with maybe +13moz in flanks estimated. We had 3 areas we were looking at 11 or so years ago and the sweet spot was at MT though there were 2 areas there both encompassed within the flanks (the Nittis being the sweetest if I recall). Much of that is open pit though think there could be some at depth too in the southern section. I was a little unsure what pd equivalent exactly meant as the presentations are not terribly in depth but seems to include some platinum and gold but our main is pd, which is an unusual fillip. There seemed to be more than the figures given for the 3 itemised in total so maybe things like iridium and rhodium are included, not too sure but is official reserves. I did pick up there is at least half a billion dollars worth of copper and nickel there though as a nice bonus for anyone after the PGM to cover costs. That would offset the fact the flanks are not proved up fully. Some experts are saying platinum is the metal to be buying now as quite low at the minute and ours is alluvial/lowest cost potentially at WK at least. There might be some concerns on grading but it is early days and performance should improve. It's reasonable to presume there is at least £2 billion value of metal at MT and that could rise by a factor of 7.5. Then we have other areas on drill results which would surely be economic at today's prices which gives the 40 million oz potential I believe. You aren't going to get much value for that yet but an incentive to buy more of the company perhaps or something to move on to for us. WK and Semenovsky I had a look at and are not as exciting but if fully producing and paying well might just support the current mcap alone I thought, especially if the company had ambitions to expand from that base and gain competency in mining. WK is already expanding with Tipil and the mining competence is being gained there.
So there is potential massive value but plenty room to give a large discount and keep everyone happy I would think. Hoping for the best but conservative values do not give rise to concern I believe we don't have big funding hurdles and could go alone too with finance in place . Hoping it would be well above 5.5p if we get an SXX style RNS but wouldn't want to get greedy. Some broker targets are 13p and the most people mention is usually 40p, plenty think 20p, odd murmurings of a pound. 7.4p once did the rounds as a very conservative pre flanks figure from someone who seemed more knowledgeable and thorough but they went on to say could be much more with flanks. Maybe keeps the SP where it is given the risks, people only risk it for a bagger.
I think SXX discussed a 100 bil asset with a 100 yr mine on unproven product and got to be worth billions at early stage. All in we may have a good portion of that, retrievable in a fraction of the time with more varied and proven uses, and simpler projects. GLA DYOR
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