Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Another depot opening....but the most interesting part was the CEO’s reference to “ongoing” successful growth and development. I wonder if that’s a clue as to what they’ll be saying in the next trading update. It’s due this week or next, so we’ll soon find out.
I was going to put my money where my mouth is this morning, and buy another 25,000 @16p. Of course, it's beaten me to it, and jumped up to 17.7p to buy. I'll keep my powder dry for the moment....
"Better than expected results from APL" is the real story.
Despite that, Alliance News manage to give it a negative spin, which may be why the SP hasn't reacted as one would expect.
Jam tomorrow certainly, but there is also jam today, albeit hidden.
The way I see it, “significantly reduced operational costs” means significantly greater profits. How much exactly? Well, H2 22/23 PBT was £1.2m Despite reduced capacity in the insurance market, H1 23/24 will be broadly similar, so it’s not difficult to see that full year PBT should be around £2m.
So, as far as I’m concerned, the company is firmly back on track. However, as always the market needs this to be spelled out, so I don’t expect an instant reaction, but the rerating will come, in time.
Email - I'd be very surprised if the update didn't give us all we could ask of the company, and more. The question is whether the market will show its appreciation for a change, and take the SP to a new level - maybe the mid 30s (though we'd all like more!). Partly depends on what happens in the wider market, of course.
I suspect the market still hasn’t completely forgiven the company for the white-knuckle ride they put us through last year. Plus the new management has not yet been properly tested. Mainly, though, I think the market is awaiting the company’s own assessment of the outlook, due shortly, rather than just having to infer it from all the recent snippets of good news.
Another factor is that the company could soon launch another management incentive plan. The last grant was in April, to the CEO, which was arguably overgenerous then - threshold 30p, maximum payout at 40p – but certainly looks like it now, given the Tuffnell’s “windfall”. Incentives are generally a good thing, of course, but let’s hope the major shareholders (i.e. the institutions and Lloyd) have a moderating influence next time over the terms.
"maybe my dire prediction will kick start the recovery ;o)"
I think you already have! Within minutes, a 80k buy at 16p was showing on google. A good sign - assuming it's not one of us!
“What will they spend it on? An extra cruise maybe?”
In theory. But what about those who find themselves having to choose between splashing the cash on another luxury cruise, and using it to rescue their “kids” who are about to lose their home?
The webcast yesterday - the one to which us lowly PI's were not invited - must have been very bullish...
Ports - I don’t see a problem with “overtrading”. It’s not as if they are recklessly chasing sales by, for example, extending credit terms, or reducing prices and cutting margins to the bone. If anything, it’s the opposite.
Moreover their bank balance is very healthy, so they won’t be running out of cash any time soon.
No, Tuffnell’s is a nice “problem” to have - give me too much business rather than too little any day!
It needs to be carefully managed, of course, but I’m sure they’re equal to it - let's see what they have to say about it in the next trading update, expected within the next month or so.
A delay of just 6 days and the shares fall off a cliff! Weird. Especially as they also confirmed previous guidance.
Delays to accounts are obviously unwelcome, but I wouldn't say they are NEVER a good sign. In this case, I think it's more a sign of extreme nervousness in the investing community at the moment.
As for the company's poor customer service, this as all-to-common in the UK generally in my experience, so Halford's is probably no worse than the competition. Though as regards batteries, funnily enough I've only had very good reports on Halford's service. Just shows how difficult it is to draw conclusions based on anecdotal evidence.
No end to the positive news flow at the moment.
How fortunes, particularly on AIM, can change almost overnight - well, for DX, since this time last year anyway, when its very survival was in doubt!
Dare we entertain the thought that this could finally move up through 40p this year?
"I fear this lot will get indigestion I'm afraid and take on more than they can cope with".
Yes, but not as much as if they hadn't had the prescience (or luck!) to launch their 3-year investment program when they did, including 8 new depots I think in the current financial year!
Today's positive start ties in with last night's Mello event, where a large majority of attendees voted it a "Buy".
Crucial TU in just a couple of weeks, hopefully without any repetition of reservations expressed in the last one (re Ukraine and reduced capacity in the insurance market).
Unhooked - I don't think that applies to DX management! On the contrary, I imagine the lights will be burning into the night at DX HQ this weekend.
The market obviously sees DX as the main beneficiary should Tuffnell's IDW clients need to look elsewhere.
It had net cash, not debt, last time I looked. The only "debt" it has is that created by capitalising future lease payments, which is not affected by interest rate increases.
So as regards the drift, the market has a very short memory, that's all. Bullish updates are quickly forgotten, though HFD hasn't lost all its gains since the last one. The market needs constant reminders - though it may have to wait till the next trading update.