Member Info for Phrontist

Continued, 88E and Panr comparison:

Reliant on future shareholder CR for time being: Both – YES.
First oil production (first revenue): Both 2021 if all goes very well….

We both have excellent Seismic data IP integrated with regional information IP.
We both have Data Room facility / capability for own use and client use.
We are both in the most stable and safe place in the world.
Panr have the edge on nearness to pipeline and highway for lower cost everything.
88E has the edge of much larger long term resources.

My conclusion:
Once we get a strike, 88E new MC (£86m to over £100m) will equal or exceed Panr MC.

Then merge with Panr, to become a powerful Alaska exploration / production business.
Create new Share Issue, list on NASDAQ, dream on, ha ha.
FO’s galore, significant share in production revenue, ongoing Drill’s for decades.

Phrontist

People keep bringing up Pantheon Resources (PANR)
Let us compare. I cannot do 88E with XCD at this moment.
But comparison is interesting as at today:

Successful oil flow test? 88E – none; Panr – 1 (one) last year
Founded as Alaska focused exploration: 88E – 2014; Panr – 2006
Years in Alaska exploration: 88E – 6; Panr – 14
Both on AIM
Current MC: 88E - £19.5m; Panr - £85.7m
Operating area size: 88E – 385,000 acres; 200,000 acres

Shareholder money spent: 88E – £ 79m; Panr – £ 158m
Expenditure over MC: 88E -
Peak SP: 88E – 4.10p; Panr – 180p
Current SP: 88E – 0.28p; Panr – 17.1p
Times drop, high to low: 88E – 4.00/0.25=16x; Panr – 180/8.9=20x
Debt: 88E – none; Panr – none
Cash in bank: 88E – plenty; Panr – 1 year overhead cost.

Number permanent staff: under 10, both
Use of contract staff, special expertise outfits, etc - both
Out of season hibernation cost: 88E – high; Panr – very low
Distance, centre of site to highway/pipeline: 88E – 35miles; Panr – 0 miles
Experience of team in oil bus: 88E – 30 yrs?; Panr – 300 yrs

Without PB, our true oil exploration experience dropped to nil. Rebuilding?? Contractors??
Panr have a very experienced and diversified team.

In 6 years, 88E has not quite done a commercial Oil Flow.
It took Panr 14 years to achieve first Oil Flow (100 bopd)
Oil resource type: 88E - conv and unconv; Panr – conv only

Panr and 88E are fully shareholder funded.

88E have high drill cost with average 35 mile ice road and deep resources.
Panr have a low Drill cost with shallow oil resources and right on the Dalton Highway
Likely average cost of oil recovery: 88E – US$ 30+; Panr – US$ 25

88E SP is hammered by past mistakes and misfortunes.
(share dilution, Yukon, Western Blocks, too much land, expensive staff).
Panr SP also hammered by 13 years to first Oil Flow. But Oil Flow brings confidence.

88E can only regain shareholder confidence and trust with a successful Oil Flow Test.
Once successful, our MC should be worth as much, or more than Panr
If MC increases to equality – 4.4 times puts 88E SP at 1.23p

Panr’s value is expertise, experience, caution.
Panr have a declared strategy to be long term oil producer.
Panr’s weaknesses – no FO success, aging ‘team’.

88E have no declared strategy, other than get some successful oil flows…
88E’s value is massive ‘oil soaked land resource’, ummm.
88E has proven Field Drilling experience, in sub-zero Arctic conditions.
88E has proven FO negotiation experience.
And (IMHO), 88E is extremely close to Oil Flow success.

Continued, Phrontist

10:35
The North Slopes applies to much of the region sloping down to Prudhoe Bay area.
88E have purchased an area within this called Central North Slopes, which PB focused on relating to his geological studies.
So, we are the only prospectors for unconventional in the region. PB had geological reason to propose the HRZ Sweet Spot, a consistent large area of about 11,000 ft down.
His belief is that once HRZ has been proven in one place, then identical drills can occur over the region for decades. The new improved horizontal drill and frack practice has made this project more viable than he originally thought.
It seems that 'BEX / 88E' may have good university contacts assisting in geological analysis of our Central North Slopes area. I think BEX / 88E are determined to prove this project as a commercial oil resource for long term oil production. IMHO this long term work and investment will prove to be positive.
Phrontist

Thanks Keefy.
Can deep thinking make it happen?

tarquinpike:
In a recent post, I am suggesting a possible 4 (FOUR) concurrent FO's...
Yukon JV
XCD JV
North Slopes conventional JV
North Slopes unconventional JV

I think that XCD would need a 3D Seismic, the best they have is an older 2D Seismic.
(...and we are paring all this money by way of 20% share dilution?)

I think Yukon (88E) is attempting a JV Group with our own AEA General manager and, urmmm, Exxon Mobile?
We have completed serious 3D Seismic up there, maybe for a wider area to enable justification for next moves.
Once a decent Data Room is prepared, an FO Tender could be released.
Timescale?? No idea.

North Slopes conventional is awaiting further analysis results from The Gods.
This could be sufficient evidence to also move forward with Data Room and FO Tender

Finally, PB's baby - North Slopes unconventional
This sounds like the wild card, but it could become the biggest and the best of the lot.
PB's postulation is that HRZ lies across many thousands of acres from a past historic era.
150 ft to 350 ft deep layer, consistent, oil drenched, thick layer called The Sweet Spot.
PB said anything from 1.5bbo to 3.6bbo. Quietly, it could be more when we discover the area size.
88E/BEX created excellent oil samples from the Icewine-1 drill of Spring 2016.
The Lab Results were literally excellent, better than Eagle Ford and other Texas Frack Sites.
We have a photograph somewhere of a glass of the stuff, like clear Apple Juice.
But it was Light Crude Oil of the Brent type. Moves along pipeline easily, is processed into petrol easily.
Brent Crude is over $42/b today. In two years it could, quite frankly, be back to anything - 50, 60, 80....?
If Lab Results are excellent, can we go back to Charlie-1 and do some Fracking on it?
Add some horizontals?? I am no expert here. But I know a man who might know.....DW.

Phrontist

If BT were in the USA, then the SP would be 5 times this pathetic £1 plus a few pence.
The opportunities in telecommunications and data communications have rarely been so open and vast.
Driven by the streaming video market, the commercial and business market, the new smartphone market, the Internet of Things market, electric vehicle market. Low cost satellites, 5G, ever improving microeconomics and AI technology.
The technologies and opportunities have never been better.
The same in UK and Europe as USA.
Which means, BT are getting moving in this opportunity bubble OR the whole BoD and Upper Management should be replaced.
P
In USA they are chas

1 Brent is now $41.30 and rising
2 The virus has not had direct detrimental affect on 88E
3 HRZ could signify a return to unconventional
4 FO's could be negotiated for conventional at North Slopes and XCD area

DW has shown considerable ability with the Charlie-1 FO.
There are a few reasons that combined for PMO to retreat, none related to Charlie-1.
Who could be future FO Partners?
Mid-range production company'e that ARE NOT present in Alaska,
AND they are looking for long term opportunity to get in.

Look at some sums. )))
Loads of Exploration companies in the regions surrounding Prudhoe Bay have invested shed loads of money. It takes time and persistence and money and experience and luck.
Some have succeeded, Armstrong, COP. They have been in the area for many decades.
But only a few successful companies compared to the list of 'not yet successful' companies.

Now return thoughts to 'outsiders' wishing to get into our region.
On the quick and the cheap and not having direct experience.
US$120 million over 6 years?
Orrrr, US$20 million over 3 months? Ha ha.
YESSS, being an FO Partner to 'the new and upgraded 88Energy Group' is a GOOD MOVE for oil companies wishing to get foothold into Alaska. AND, which other companies are as amenable as 88E Group (ha ha)?
With a team and proven ability to carry out field operations 100% to spec.
With little or no debt (net our decreasing loan to amount Alaska Gov owe us).
With growing Data Room for punters to browse and analyse. Like 'try before you buy'. )))
This 'Intellectual Property' aspect of 88E/BEX is highly underrated by 'people'.
We could put it into our Accounts as an Asset at, say, US$ 25 million, which is cheap.

Of course it pains Long Term Holders that SP has declined.
DW does not have a good business head at the Cash Level.
But as long term strategy, 88E is close to the Big Breaks.
AND, IMHO now, XCD could add value to our BoD and our thousands of acres of 'oil soaked land'.

What has happened, has happened, over last 6 years.
But we have Immense Assets and Immense Opportunity.
The 'new group' just has to place the next bore hole over a commercially oil soaked spot.
I think this will happen with next TWO drill FO's.

Phrontist

The Conservative Government have committed to almost UK wide 5G fibre network by end of this Parliament.
Someone has to be placing ORDERS QUITE SOON.
This is right down BT and OpenReach road....
The good old days when Post Office Telecomms wired UK plc.
At engineering level, BT is still a Global Top Ranking telecomms company.
It just needs a BT Director with Balls to visit Cummings with a Sample Plan and Contract.
This is the best time for many decades for UK plc to lean on Government for Big Project funding assistance.
P

In USA, many shares are rising based on 5G plans.
With Trump blocking out Huawei....
Could same be happening here with BJ deciding Huawei are persona non grata?
Giving big opportunities to BT AND OpenReach?
US companies are very advanced on 5G products including one company that supplies Apple, Samsung AND Huawei.
It is no longer true to assume that Huawei own the technical lead, this has been dripping away rapidly c/o Trump.
Most people think 5G is just about mobile phones.
Not true. 5G is about Internet of Things, the vast benefits this brings to industry.
With this product strategy looming close, selling OpenReach would be a bad move.
At least, until 5G implementation is fully figured out and BJ is waving Government money our way....
P

There are always many factors that affect 88E share price.
Brent going above $40/b is a big plus for all exploration and production companies.
Likely within June:
XCD merger will be complete.
Lab results on Charlie-1 will be out with positives.
Global transport will be gaining traction, consuming oil.
HRZ result will be suggesting 'commercial' ....
Serious moves for anything up to 4 FO negotiations will be in progress.
Targets for anything up to 4 drills in 2021....
Phrontist

Nice item of history from 2015
All those hoped for horizontal wells were 'creaming the curve' as PB termed it.
My figure is to prove HRZ exists as a commercial oil flow - the first well. )))
That presentation was 5 years ago.
What has happened since then is substantial drilling technology improvement. Longer underground reach.
Should a first commercial HRZ oil flow be achieved, the SP is likely to be 3p or more. Hence CR is much less painful.
Also, FO seems quite possible after Lab Results in few weeks.
Anyway, 10 wells is not necessary. If we did three each with a few lateral drills, that would put 88E into a very strong position.
Even one working well....
Phrontist

19:04
We have spent over £100 million.
To have proven HRZ would be less than half that.
My rough estimates.
Our position today is waiting for Charlie-1 results:
Will their be encouraging information for a definite commercial conventional drill?
Will HRZ Lab Tests indicate that it too can be commercial?
If HRZ comes out strongly in the lead, this suggests we should have focused on it years ago until fully proven.
Then look at conventional....
Phrontist

My approach has been to accept mistakes of the past and see if we can achieve commercial oil flow.
This is the key to underpinning any SP rise
What is DW responsible for? This is an important question.
How can we assess his progress against targets?
He just goes off and spends money with no advance informing to shareholders. There are no specified targets. In his eyes, he is making progress as opposed to achieving or failing specified targets.
My beef has always been, HE should not have diversified towards conventional until unconventional was resolved, understood, achieved or failed.
The original 88E mission was HRZ unconventional.
88E shareholders could have funded that to a conclusion, possibly by a year or two ago.
But the shareholding cannot fund two streams of exploration whilst both were, and still are, failing.
Buying all this land....
Buying Yukon....
Doing Western Blocks, and failing....
All of these were decisions by DW.
Now we dilute 88E shares for XCD....
I am sure there is commercial oil there, but can we fund the number of Wells required to prove it?
Whilst follow up on Charlie-1 for???
The company needs a Buyer, no question.
Just like XCD needed a Buyer!!!
Meanwhile, I feel positive about HRZ from Charlie-1
Back on track with our original Mission....
Oil prices will recover over 12 to 24 months.
About our timescale if HRZ with horizontal can produce...
Phrontist

14:26 no no.....
Why are you here if nothing is interesting.
I have long list of activities and RNS's but too busy at the moment to write it out for someone who is obviously selling and saying goodbye.
Phrontist

Brom, I do not know the depth that 3D Seismic can go to with reasonable confidence.
Icewine HRZ is about 11,600 ft.
Charlie-1 it is almost the same.
I am not aware that anything has been published on HRZ other than Icewine, and soon Charlie-1
This data you refer to, I have no idea what it is.

The postulation that a very large sweetspot of HRZ exists was made by PB himself.
As a geologist, he would have known the layers of material, when they arrived, what their makeup is, etc. It seems the sea came inland to our area, maybe 1 million years ago, I do not know dates. And over the centuries 2 miles of dust, valcano, meteor, vegetation, god only knows what, has piled up.
Leaving the sweet spot to mature from the vegetation of the time, when sea was lapping on beaches, etc.

Phrontist

PB was the geologist that created the database for Central North Slopes. It would include conventional as and when this shows up on 3D Seismic.
But his focus was on the HRZ layer known as a Sweet Spot. Once you flow oil commercially in one place, you know the same is/ could be contiguous over a substantial area.
He has studied the geology in the way geologists do and believed the sweet spot could cover 100,000 acres or more, much more. )))
Phrontist

13:12
There is 'beer money' to keep annual operations functioning.
Then there is Field Operation Drilling Operations.
So far, $15m a go for Icewine 1 and 2. About.
One third of this for Winx-1.
Nothing for Charlie-1.
Average over 4 drills is $35m/4 = $8.75m

DW has already indicated that a Drill or two (in same trip) is likely for XCD sites.
AND, he will negotiate Farm Out on similar basis to last one.
Success here depends on Global Oil Price and how able XCD can prove a case.

More FO negotiations are very likely IMHO.
Perhaps two on North Slopes. Some kind of JV on Yukon.
We could be negotiating three or four FO's concurrently, all starting late Summer.
In this respect the BEX/88E JV is progressing very well indeed.
All GO IMHO. Phrontist

12:19
There have been plenty of maps produced by 88E and XCD in particular.
Go to XCD website.

They believe they are sitting within a potentially substantial conventional oil reserve.
Reasons are based on known geological strata / data and several oil finds quite nearby.
My impression is, 88E can extend and add to the capability of XCD quite considerably.

88E/BEX Data Base was originated by Paul Basinski possibly starting a decade ago.
His expertise was in developing and building this kind of geological knowledge system.
XCD adding their knowledge to our larger regional knowledge could be beneficial for both companies.

Second, under the Accumulate Energy Alaska subsidiary, 88E has the proven ability to organise and execute field operations.
We carried out the Drill Operations at Franklin Bluffs for Icewine-1 and Icewine-2.
We carried out the Drill Operation on Western Blocks, not far from XCD area.
We carried out the Charlie-1 Drill Operation in Central North Slopes area.

OK, I whinge alongside many others that a full oil flow test has not yet happened.
But our Knowledge Base must be of high value just on its own.
Field results combined with focused specialist Academic assistance is surely moving us very close to our first 'strike'.
Once we have a first commercial strike, many will follow.

Long term share holders must be ringing their hands in frustration, even anger.
But exploration under the earths hard ground has its predictability and secrets to find

It would be nice if DW could confirm or deny my words and optimism.
But is this an RNS? No. Just general knowledge at a public level.
It is the way each of us interprets this knowledge that decides, is 88E good punt or bad punt?

Phrontist

There are a few factors working FOR 88Energy.
Maybe slowly, but surely
1 The XCD merger is progressing.
Exact price is a detail. The business concept is good.
2 DW has said, FO Contracts are the thing. This is one skill he is definitely good at.
Data Room analysis enables potential Buyers to make own decisions.
The 'database' of knowledge owned by 88E/BEX, is improving.
'Outsiders' do not have this information, this intellectual knowledge.
Our detailed knowledge gets better and our area covered gets wider.
We get nearer to success with each drill. Charlie was free.
We offer 60% of future production leaving 40% for BEX and 88E, to get free drill.
Shareholders should realize the amazing value this brings to 88E as a Group within the region.
3 Crude oil price is sneaking up. Today Brent is $36.6 and WTI is $34.4, both up over 2.5%
4 Unconventional HRZ is a dark horse. We shall understand more in 4 weeks from lab.
This was founding concept of the BEX/88E JV. The massive Sweet Spot of oil is still up for grabs.
As a long term production project for prospective Big Buyer, this is very much on the go for us.
Phrontist

09:10
Are you suggesting that DW is manipulating the XCD situation for his personal gain over 88E shareholder interests?
P

I clicked on the URL below on my mobile.
It came up with a Web Site of the people that do interviewing, reporting, etc.
And lower down on the page is a massive 88E brand for 16 Feb 2016.
Click and play. DW is first interviewed, about 15 mins. Then interviewer carries on with other interviewees.
That interview was important impact on SP's first high peak at 3.8p or so.
Then with Icewine-2 a year later, it peaked at just over 4p.
THEN Icewine-2 would not Oil Flow.
BECAUSE we should have followed on with Horizontal to do the job properly.
As designed and recommended by PB.
Further, having failed in Summer 2017, we should have brought in Specialist Consultants THEN.
Not later adding 18 months or so to discover Bitumen blocking the borehole.

There is no point in complaining about this aspect of the past.
We have money invested here, and original PB followers still believe in a (BIG) chance of HRZ success.
DW then did an amazing thing. He planned an FO for Charlie-1, near Malguck-1
and nearer the centre of unconventional region.
AND with a single Drill Program tested for three main layers of conventional AND a layer of unconventional 2 miles down.
One cost to revive two Cost Centre's.
Only, due to global circumstances, our FO Partner dropped out.
Giving DW and 88E a free ride. I feel he has made up for earlier actions.
We all know the classic AIM Tragedy? Overspend before achieving Initial Mission.
SP is low because we did just that sin.
But now, with SKILL, DW could succeed in bring conventional and unconventional to the front.
WITH excellent Lab Results this week and again in a month or so.
Not quite Oil Flow yet.
But now very close to two Oil Flows on North Slopes and another two at Yukon and XCD.
Personnaly, I think DW and all of us NEED a BIG BREAK.
This could be IT.

Phrontist