Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The USA finance press on average have predicted a reversing of Q3 and earlier quarter negativity, for a mild positive Q4 growth. I am sure that S4 will have taken advantage of this and put in every effort possible to deliver good Q4 results.
What are we hoping for? Q4 returning a strong sales growth. Announcing a £ borrowing figure below the worrying revised forecast. Delivering a bottom line profit.
If S4 deliver on all three the SP will rise above £1 IMHO showing the company has capacity and capability for 2024.
I think that we can take some comfort in seeing that all businesses focused on digital marketing and advertising have taken a big hit. The free world is taking a hit from the emergence of violence, corruption and unity of authoritarian countries. If Europe and the USA can reverse this we should see a rise in free enterprise based business. In fairness to SMS, he was/is very unlucky with the timing of S4 growth plans.
11am 21 Nov BrokenSmoke
The MC is £300 million at SP just over 50p
Not £300K
SMS owns over 10% plus golden share
A takeover from USA sources could be a possibility since 70% of the business is USA based.
Even at £1 per share this would be a bargain for a well oiled Buyer.
Could SMS block this?
Would SMS block it?
This USA China meeting is positive and significant, way more than expectations.
Trade is going to move up to and beyond historic levels.
(I think) S4 have client relationships in place to increase sales substantially, to previously planned levels.
This could/should enable S4 to generate improved substantial margins for Debt reduction and PROFIT bottom line.
The USA Whopper Clients are renowned for rapidly taking advantage of increasing sales when opportunities appear.
Phrontist
Apparently 75% or so of S4 Capital's business is USA based.
It seems that the USA and China are making moves to resolve differences and get business back as top priority.
Russia will be sidelined as nothing but trouble on international trade.
I am sure that S4 are ready for a big increase in USA trade, hence S4 sales over this coming few quarters.
They will survive and thrive. SP should be 75p to £1 for sure, and during 2024 should pass £2/share.
Ever the optimist, Phrontist
88E have spent 9 years in Alaska with many close calls on drill location selections but so far no commercial success.
Hickory-1 could be our first move towards that all important milestone.
The difficulty with Alaska is restricting our field operations to about a third of the year. Also the water logged terrain with annual freezing and unfreezing makes for expensive field access to selected drill sites.
The small move to reworking sites in Texas is IMHO a breath of fresh air for the company. Weather permits year round access and dry land offers low cost and fast access to drill locations.
Also, the 88E staff get much needed experience in oil extraction and delivery.
So, now 88E is working in Namibia with a JV an established Namibia partner. The land is dry, easier to travel over, easier to create working drill operations, opportunity to work year round.
Possibly less hassle and stress over working with government bodies. Possibly lower future taxation. Possibly lower staff costs.
It will be beyond magic if the Hickory-1 Oil Flow Testing is very successful. The SP will be in a higher place to fund Alaska development and Namibia development.
Happy shareholders will not resent inevitable Cash Calls in 2024 being based on, possibly, a return to 2p steady SP level.
This must be the type of target being aimed for, the reason why investors are here.
Phrontist
Red etc 12:20
Slash the Alkaid costs when transposed to Hickory-1.
The Hickory-1 location is a One minute drive to the Dalton Highway. Ha.
And a 100/200 m pipe distance to the TAP (Trans Alaskan Pipeline).
Hickory-1 is a perfectly positioned oil drill location to enable very low cost development and production into the future.
Phrontist
The timing for Namibia does not seem ideal for 88E.
After all, we are in the tunnel of Hickory-1 Flow Test for another 4 months or more.
At least one strong Oil Flow Test would strengthen the SP, two or more strong Tests could give a 5 to 10 rise on the SP. Speculation of course.
Then do the Namibia Deal.
So, what seems likely is this opportunity came up with a Deal Now or No Deal situation. And Ashley decides Deal.
There is a 5% or so SP fallback but it is likely in the short term that Namibia will attract new shareholders anyway.
Phrontist
This coming six months could show some staggering SP/MC growth.
Yes, I take the positive view. Considerable work has gone into Hickory, we know this.
And it seems considerable investigation and planning has gone into this new African project. It is a very low cost entry for 88E, for sure.
Phrontist
A few years ago I asked DW about how this business relationship was going.
Because of this I do not know, but he declined to answer my few emails since then.
It is an important issue because Burgundy has/had rights to 33% or so of 88E oil production on the original leases organised by PB.
Perhaps our newish MD could issue clarification on this long standing agreement, it is fundamental to 88E finances.
Phrontist
The point that I am trying to make is, 88E will hope to make a Cash Call on shareholders during Q2 2024, without selling out to large oil production company.
With a half decent Oil Flow Test, raising a substantial $ sum will then only be 1% or 2% of the shares, which is very low.
So 88E will be able to move on and up at a faster pace.
Phrontist
Doing this on my mobile is always error prone.
A slight adjustment....
Number shares 17.5 billion approximately
Size of Hickory-1 commercial oil resource to 88E below is $1.750 billion selling forward at 3%
$/share= 1.75/17.5 = $0.1 = 10c = 8p/share
Phrontist