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ECO is still capitalized at more than £80M above net current assets per share and at this stage only a fraction of that will be due to Namibia so the market is hardly writing off Orinduik completely. The SP is just back to where it was prior to Jethro and Joe results. Going forwards I expect 2020 drilling to focus on the SE part of the block including the Hammerhead extension and deeper Cretaceous and shy away from further drilling in the North and West of the licence. If Jethro analysis is better than expected perhaps Jethro Channel will also get prioritized. Results from Carapa will obviously have a bearing on this.

IJWT, you are absolutely correct and I was fully aware of that, but thought my comments were already verbose enough without labouring the detail. The discussion at the time was that Hammerhead might jump the queue and be the third area to be developed if I remember correctly. This gained traction when it became clear that HH-2 and 3 were to be drilled, but the order appears to have reverted with Payara up instead if I'm not mistaken. Not sure why Hammerhead came to the fore and then receeded again. Perhaps it was due to the heavy nature of the oil vis-a-vis the other discoveries, or perhaps speculation just got ahead of itself and that was never the intention of Exxon and partners.

Surely that $8 figure realtes to Liza and needs to be reduced for heavy oil.

There are idiots on both sides of the argument though. To my knowledge Exxon/Hess have not yet given the go ahead for FPSO development on Hammerhead, and I was in fact rather diappointed when other prospects jumped the queue, yet plenty of bulls are pumping that line. If any sources state otherwise I am all ears.

They are also assuming that the oil in Hammerhead and Jethro is identical. We don't know that yet as the specifics haven't been given for either of them. We know Jethro is very high sulphur, but there has been no indication so far that Hammerhead is. One note already suggested the high sulpur content could be due to different rock types in parts of Orinduik.

Also, many have been saying that Jethro is OK because Bentley is OK. Bentley has not been developed yet and Bentley is not very high sulphur so the comparison is flawed.

As for saying it's a buy because a broker note has downgraded it to 170p or because Gil says so is laughable. After his recent performance a healthy dose of scepticism is in order for Pinch of Saltzman.

Currently (at 62p) ECO is only 4p below the level it was prior to Jethro results. The results have been positive and negative. Oil has been found, but is of low grade and commericality is in doubt. Cash has gone out the door and Gil has lost a big chunk of credibility. Meanwhile, we have several catalysts to look forward to, CPR, Carapa and 2020 drilling.

We were told to much fanfare at 150p plus that the pending CPR will showcase more tertiary prospects and increase the COS of existing ones. I for one was really excited about the CPR upgrade, which is why I kept adding all the way down to 130p. However, what is the value of these upgrades if the targets are all heavy oil with a high sulphur content? Sadly, I just don't see the CPR upgrade as being that big a deal anymore. If they can upgrade the Cretaceous COS on the back of Carapa success then great, but that will take siginificantly longer than a few weeks to assess IMO.

Altough Carapa is only 15% COS I expect they will discover something, but will they withhold data again and will the market been more cautious of assigning any value if they do? Might take a while for it to affect the SP in a meaningful way.

Drilling in 2020 will definitely help the SP, but how long will we have to wait? Gil has already told us that after the Carapa result they will reprocess all the 3D in conjunction with the 3 well results then decide on a drilling plan. Carapa is due towards the end of the year according to TLW, so I would expect reprocessing and planning to be done perhaps by February. With three months lead lime to drilling I would expect May at the earliest. Also, the last numbers I heard from Gil were that ECO is fully funded for 4 more wells and has received a drilling proposal for 2 wells in 2020.

There are positives and negatives here and it it important to see both sides. Wildly optimistic ramping is just as irritating as widly pessimist negatvity

Sadly no profits for me this week except a bit in KEFI. Just had my confidence in ECO knocked a bit and a bit miffed with Gil. I know you can short easily with FX, but it looks cumbersome and far too risky with equities. Can't do it in an ISA anyway which rules me out. Never fancied Forex myself as it looks way too random and I won't use leverage or margin. Congrats if you can make money at it, but you're sensible to be cautious with equities if you're new to the market as it's a very different beast. No 50% drops in currency pairs on low liquidity for starters. This has been a rough week for a lot of investors so I hope everyone stays positive and has a relaxing weekend. GLALTH

By the way, as far as I know Gil is Israeli and not a native speaker of English, so if the language used in the email was less than perfect it makes the posting seem more likely to be genuine. FWIW the email he sent me wasn't word perfect either. Just nice to have a CEO that answers investor questions. As it was a private email I decided not to post it as I may want to contact him again in the future.

Don't see how I deserve that monkier Riptonk. We were all totally blindsided by this week's news and many of us feel hung out to dry by the CEO's overly bullish comments. In light of that it's only sensible to analyse the inconsitencies in his statements thus far and be more skeptical of them going forwards. Having been invested here for over two years in what I thought was a charmed stock on the fairytale block I certainly intend to be more cautious going forward. If you took note of my concerns earlier in the week regarding the SP action after snapping at me for not ramping you may well have reduced your exposure a bit before the RNS hit.

Just as some of were saying, it looks like a placing is in the works.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201911151633356417T&tab=article

Tickling over $1 on the TSX too.

Thanks for posting that. Gil has replied to me via email in the past also.

Since when is Brent very high sulphur?

Actually Gil walked that back in yesterday's interview as well stating that ECO has money for 4 more wells rather than the 6 indicated previously.

They are not drilling 4-6 wells next year. Gil mentioned a proposal for 2 which will depend on Carapa results.

While we are told Hammerhead and Jethro share some characteristics, I am not aware that Hammerhead is very high sulphur. Going forward I would not be surprised to see them focus primarily on the few prospects in the SE quadrant of Orinduik.

I think one of the articles this week had something about the very high sulphur content possibly being due to different rock types. As far as the oil being heavier than the Stabroek discoveries, Jethro is upslope and Joe significantly upslope of them so perhaps they have been been subjected to lower pressures and temperatures than the deeper Stabroek discoveries, which has resulted in a heavy crude.

I still don't see why he has to keep radically changing timelines from one day to the next. Feels like an exercise in dissuading people from selling a falling share by dangling a tempting carrot that's always just out of reach. Anyone that held on for the CPR on the basis of that 4-6 week estimate has been well and truly shafted.

In his interview a few days ago Gil told us that the CPR was 'not in the far future … perhaps in a month or two'. Now with price plunging he told us yesterday that he hopes it's 3-4 weeks away. Similarly in his interview a couple of months ago during the initial post Joe sell off he said it was around 4-6 weeks away. Well that time has come and gone and now we get the same yarn. I seem to remember the September 2018 CPR also arrived many months after it was initially predicted. Why the constantly changing timelines? I really don't know whether to believe a word he says any more. When is he being straight or when is it a load of spin to prop up the SP? Pinch of salt.

His interviews just a few weeks ago were also super positive when the SP was a quid north of where it is now. Clearly wasn't a good barometer then, why would it be any different now?

Any broker notes that haven't downgraded their target prices after yesterday's unexpected revelation aren't worth the paper they're written on. Anyone listening to Malcy's endless ramping is a fool, ask (former) CAZA and FRR shareholders, and to say everything is just fine because Gil said he'd buy if he could is priceless. The guy bought at 148p recently to much fanfare and PR and anyone that followed him in has been obliterated. Ignore the PR machine and make your own decisions based on the information available.

on today's ECO update as Joe straddles their Demerara block. Their shares only rallied on the back of our drilling campaign and are practically back where they started.

https://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=OYL