Member Info for Phoebus

What price will it be at? 1p to 1.5p range is my guess.

Spot on. That was one fanciful update. Cheryl Cole springs to mind.

It's as if the BOD are suddenly concerned with trying to look like they're doing something ... anything. Probably better to wait till they actually have something more newsworthy to avoid looking so desperate.

Try looking at the silver chart. Biggest fall since Lehman. Looking better now.

Perhaps they want to hold. Makes sense if they expect much higher prices.

Many thanks. That's very helpful.

Kaieteur Block

I assumed that one of the 7 planned wells would be Toucan however this week's presentation suggests we should swap this out for a well on Block 47. That said I'm sure they will drill Toucan as it's a really big target with an excellent COS.

Tanager … P50 MMB 256.2 gross, 3.91 MMB net, 72% COS
Toucan … P50 MMB 702.7 gross, 10.72 MMB net, 56% COS

Canje Block

The plan appears to be to spud Bulletwood in the next few weeks followed by Jabillo and Sapote. I have used the P50 figures as per the JHI audio presentation cited on this board, however I was uncertain on the figure for Sapote, but apparently it is roughly the same as Jabillo. I have not seen the COS figures so assumed 30%, which seems ultra conservative as it is lower than the figures for ECO's Cretaceous targets and given Exxon has chosen to prioritize these drills I would imagine it should actually be over 50%. I used 30% in calculating WTE's risked NAV, so in actual fact the risked NAV should probably be quite a bit higher as these targets are particularly significant for WTE on a net barrels basis.

Bulletwood … P50 MMB 500 gross, 4.2 MMB net, 30% COS
Jabillo … P50 MMB 1,200 MMB gross, 10.08 MMB net, 30% COS
Sapote … P50 MMB 1,200 MMB gross, 10.08 MMB net, 30% COS

Orinduik

The exact drill targets have not been specified, but based on the sounds coming from ECO and TLW I'm certain they will be targetting Cretaceous prospects. I have chosen the targets in the NE quadrant of the block as they are closest to Liza and Hammerhead and furthest from the heavy oil Triassic discoveries of Joe and Jethro.

Amaila/Kumaka … P50 MMB 775.8 gross, 0.93 MMB net, 31.5% COS
Iatuk-D … P50 MMB 725.3 gross, 0.87 MMB net, 31.2% COS

These 7 drills amount to 40.8 MMB P50 net to WTE although we should probably now swap out Toucan for Goliathberg Voltberg on Block 47.

Block 47

I can't tell if the well would target Goliathberg Voltberg South or North target or both if they are stacked.

Goliathberg Voltberg South … P50 MMB 368.4 gross, 0.52 MMB net, 37% COS
Goliathberg Voltberg North … P50 MMB 234.7 gross, 0.33 MMB net, 34% COS

Conclusion

It is clear that the vast majority of value for WTE lies in the Kaieteur and Canje blocks with most of the value from this drilling campaign coming from just three of the scheduled wells. The total P50 net to WTE across the licences amounts to 97.3 MMB, with 57.6 MMB on Canje, 32.2 MMB on Kaieteur, 6.2 MMB on Orinduik and 1.3 MMB on Block 47. Clearly, success at the first two wells, Tanager on Kaieteur and Bulletwood on Canje would derisk the lions share of value in WTE's portfolio. Not long to wait to find out.

I did have my money in UJO, but bailed and shifted the money here as the upside is so much greater from these levels.

Any reason for the lack of upward movement here over the last three months. Possible DELT deal overhang, which is now irrelevant? Another big seller? I'm very surprised this is still at these levels especially if the rig is indeed only a week away.

Rubey, in a sense I think you are correct, although I believe WF is accessed via deviated wells from onshore.

Gotcha. Excellent info there GP as regards RFs. Much appreciated. I know it's all very much case specific, but do you have any advise on good $/B, $/BCF figures to use for basic valuations rather than just a flat $5/BOE? Regards.

Nobody is saying it will be as big as the masssive Wytch Farm, but it could well be the second biggest ever onshore UK. P50 recoverable for Cadeby is 79.1 MMB and Kirkham is 146.40 MMB P50 OIIP plus 211.50 BCF GIIP. Assuming 30% recovery factor for oil and 80% for gas this gives a total P50 recoverable for the two intervals of 151.12 MMBOE P50 recoverable. That's about 60% of your 250 MMB figure for Wytch Farm. Not as big, but utterly massive for onshore UK none the less. No wonder RBD have increased their share of the licence. RBD's net share is 84.63 MMBOE, which at $5 per MMOE equates to a SP of 4.77p or 7.5x the current SP. Given it's onshore, that is probably too low a valuation.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/926409/exxons-new-guyana-drilling-set-to-ignite-interest-in-two-london-listed-explorers-926409.html

Actually I think both our figures are incorrect and WTE has also made a mistake. According to yesterday's RNS WTE has a 5.2% interest in Cataleya and I used this RNS to check my figures before posting the 1.48%.

https://investegate.co.uk/westmount-energy-ld--wte-/rns/portfolio-update---new-corporate-presentation/202008100700075709V/

However according to today's RNS, yesterday's presentation and the August 2019 RNS I used to for my spreadsheet WTE has a 5.4% interest in Cataleya. This gives 1.35% via our stake in Cataleya plus 0.18% via our stake in Ratio which gives a total WTE stake in Kaieteur of 1.53%. It was this figure I used to calculate the 97.3 MMB and 40.8 MMB I posted previously.

https://investegate.co.uk/westmount-energy-ld--wte-/rns/stena-carron-drillship-on-location-at-tanager-1/202008110700077141V/

https://investegate.co.uk/westmount-energy-ld--wte-/rns/investment-in-cataleya-energy-corporation/201908300700056337K/

As a reminder the signs are good for the deeper Cadeby oil target. 'The well also encountered hydrocarbon shows within the deeper Cadeby formation, a secondary target. The intersection is consistent with the West Newton A-1 well from which an oil saturated core was recovered. This is highly encouraging, and the formation is planned to be intersected in the future from the West Newton-B well location, where optimal reservoir development is expected, and planning permission is already in place.'

The 97.3 MMB figure is for all prospects across all licences.

If you're going to try and slate the stock at least try and get your figures correct. Unless I'm mistaken WTE's interest in the Kaieteur block is 1.48%.

Remember the low risk appraisal of the WN mega discovery comes before the deeper Cadeby target, so we are odds on for super drill results first.

On last WN results UJO was 0.38p and is now 0.30p, RBD was 1.75p and is now 0.63p. 3.5x the leverage. It's a no brainer.

Given that DELT transaction has been kicked into touch buying RBD at this SP offer 3.5 times the exposure to West Newton per £ of investment compared to investing in UJO. If you are piling into UJO for WN you should be buying the hind legs off here. STRONG BUY