Member Info for Phoebus

No, I don't mean that.

Seems very short-sighted to see the hackneyed sell on spud routine. Market participants need to do their own research and look at each drill on its merits, and this one definitely looks like one to spin the wheel on IMO and I expect the market thinks the same. Once the spud knee jerk is worked through I expect the SP to firm up nicely. GLA

Exactly. Convert enough to cover their costs and then let the rest ride as a free geared position on the result. Nice.

I expect we'll see some consolidation for a bit and then another major leg higher some time in the next few days if not sooner. GLA

Based on those calculations the current SP is only factoring in a 14% chance of farm down, which seems too low at this stage in proceedings following the huge discoveries offshore this year. 0.75p (SP) / 5.4p (risked valuation on farm down) x 100 (covert to %) = 14%. A 1/3 chance of farm down should see this at 1.8p IMO.

Based on those calculations the current SP is only factoring in a 14% chance of farm down, which seems too low at this stage in proceedings following the huge discoveries offshore this year. 0.75p (SP) / 5.4p (risked valuation on farm down) x 100 (covert to %) = 14%. A 1/3 chance of farm down should see this at 1.8p IMO.

Perfectly normal as stocks cycle up and down.

GBP currently has 78% of PEL 94. If they farm down 53% in return for free carry on drilling Marula their remaining 25% stake in the drill would be 52.5 MMB (210 MMB x 25%) with a 22% COS. Assuming $5 per barrel in the success case, USDGBP 0.765 and 811.54M shares, the value net to GBP would be £44.2M risked or £201M unrisked, which equates to 5.4p risked pre drill or 24.7p unrisked in the success case. Clearly huge upside will be unlocked if they manage to get a successful farm down.

And if they make a discovery then 25p seems perfectly possible. All we need is a successful farm down and we're away. Hopefully we'll hear in the next 2-3 weeks. GLA

I agree on 5p if they farm down for a Marula drill.

Look at the Pancontinental chart for yourself. Seems it really liked the La Rona update. We should be benefiting from all this too.
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/PCL.AX

If they succeed in farming down for carry on Marula drilling then the current market cap looks ridiculous. Given the results at Venus, Graff and La Rona and the farm in deadline fast approaching, it makes sense for the SP to factor in some of the value of a successful farm out process. 1.5p seems perfectly reasonable IMO.

Agreed. There must be nearly zero free float. Bid and ask change on almost every single trade.

At one point yesterday it touched £41M market cap. Their main target is smaller and lower COS than GBP's Marula target. Even after today's move GBP is still only £6.1M market cap and if I remember correctly between £1.5-2.0M of that is cash. Plenty of scope for a move higher and if we get a farm out this will rocket.

UK onshore might be so-so at the moment, but last week's UK energy policy statement was very supportive of North Sea operations and EOG is actually drilling an appraisal well on Serenity in the UK North Sea together with I3E at the start of 2022 Q3. Drill is fully funded and looking to prove up 115.2 MMBO 3C gross, 28.8 MMB net to EOG. Will be a company maker in the success case. Hopefully TRP can get the farm out over the line and then we have another drill to look forward to.

It would be nice, but those drill timing are irrelevant as TRP lacks the cash needed to drill. That's what the farmout is for. The first with OilLR from 2020 seemed to fall through without a trace and the second with Beluga from 2021 was supposed to complete months ago, but still nothing 7 months later. It's looking more and more like that too will fall through. Until TRP actually closes a deal or does a massive fund raise, I don't see how drilling can proceed unfortunately.

It would be nice, but those drill timing are irrelevant as TRP lacks the cash needed to drill. That's what the farmout is for. The first with OilLR from 2020 seemed to fall through without a trace and the second with Beluga from 2021 was supposed to complete months ago, but still nothing 7 months later. It's looking more and more like that too will fall through. Until TRP actually closes a deal or does a massive fund raise, I don't see how drilling can proceed unfortunately.

Basically a nano-placing at the current SP. Great. Another £56K in the kitty.

A very short one.

Just check the previous posts. It's all there.