Member Info for Phoebus

75% is overstating the risk IMO as we have a stake in the Mako field, the largest undeveloped gas field in the West Natuna Basin, which is approaching monetization. This should underpin a good chunk of the SP.

CNOOC are Exxon's partner on the prolific Stabroek block in Guyana. It's full steam ahead there from Exxon and CNOOC, US and China.

That BFS was quite an eye opener. Stock has a small market cap and huge potential. Mega potential here.

Nonsense. Some of the greatest exploration results I can remember have been preceded by a falling SP.

RKH fell non stop from 60p to under 40p right up to the Sealion result. It was an epic tale of woe. Then all of a sudden mid session with the SP at its nadir the result was announced and the price instantly went mental hitting about 270p two days later on its way to 510p.

Similarly GKP slumped to a four month low around 10p just before TD on Shaikan-1. As soon the discovery was announced it went vertical, hitting well over 100p three weeks later on its was to 449p.

Look and you will find plenty more examples.

Who knows? Farmout process is underway, so hopefully we will find out in the next few weeks. SP seems to be nice and steady today. Consolidating ahead of the next leg higher some time in the next few days is my guess. GLA

Sorry, but I completely disagree. Your grounds for drawing the comparison were nothing but the SP pulling back ahead of news. Complete non-argument. Sure as the sun rises and sets, shares go up and down, especially close to binary events.

Sorry Manro, but that's a ridiculous comparison. Just because one investment didn't turn out as expected doesn't mean there's a bogeyman hiding under your bed. Shares go up and down all the time. You should remember that the CEO has 88.88M shares here. Not so much skin in the game as his whole torso. Interests very much aligned with our own.

In the event of an oil discovery the undiscovered 2U volume becomes discovered 2C resources and then on establishment of a commercial development plan becomes 2P reserves, which may or may not require appraisal drilling depending on the characteristics of the particular field.

'Since 2019 there have been 55 UK North Sea M&A transactions at an asset and corporate level. The exit multiples for blended 2C and 2P contingent resources have ranged from US$4 to US$6 per boe.'
https://hartshead-resources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/MST-Access-HHR-Initiation-Report-4Oct21.pdf

Oil prices are considerably higher now and many oil companies are valued at much higher than $5 on an EV/2P or EV/2P+2C basis. As a rough example HBR has 488 MMBOE 2P and 460 MMBOE 2C, a market cap of £4.8B, total current assets of about £1.77B ($2.3B) and total liabilities of £10.8 ($14.0B), which gives an EV of $18.9/BOE on a 2P + 2C basis or $36.8/BOE on a 2P basis.

Hope that helps.

Sí, señor. Cuarenta peniques sin taña.

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Lots of money flushed down the TOILEX this week. :(

We won't get to 100p on a Jade discovery, but they have already mentioned drilling Topaz if Jade is successful. If they are filled to spill as per nearby discoveries then 100p could be in our sights.

395 (Jade MMB P10 OIP) + 891 (Topaz MMB P10 OIP) x 0.49 (EME share post CNOOC back in rights) x 0.30 (estimated recovery factor) x 5 ($/BOE in success case) x 0.765 (USDGBP) / 665.83 (EME shares in M) x 100 (convert to pence) = 109p.

Obviously we would need a bit more funding to drill Topaz, but a discovery on Jade would make dilution very negligible. Considering this potential and the geological data this is one exciting well. GLA

Hard to buy this a lot of the time. Shouldn't take much volume for a large move.

I see Cloudbreak, Ultimate Resources and Masterstroke Investments have just taken acreage in Namibia. This is the second lot of Namibian acreage Cloudbreak have taken in just the last week. Clearly interest is building after the Graff, Venus and La Rona results. Expect we will see more and more companies start to move in.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CDL/partnership-to-explore-for-oil-gas-in-namibia/15410980

Looking very strong this morning. Have a feeling this could move back up a lot faster than people are expecting.

AquaeSulis, EME has a share of the biggest undiscovered gas field in the West Natuna Basin Indonesia, which is approaching asset sale and $$$ for EME. This should underpin a good chunk of the SP helping prevent you from taking a Bath.

AquaeSulis, EME has a share of the biggest undiscovered gas field in the West Natuna Basin Indonesia, which is approaching asset sale and $$$ for EME. This should underpin a good chunk of the SP helping prevent you from taking a Bath.

Right now EOG is all about huge Wressle cash flows at very high oil prices and a big North Sea drill.

I thought it sounded like an episode of Bearcast. Rather than fixate on something of little consequence or make sweeping judgements that miss the detail, do as C357 suggests and read the RNS and CPR. TW pretty much never recommends any oil stocks apart from BP or similar for dividends, which is a bit odd from a former oil analyst and especially so in the current environment.