RE: Happier Days Ahead22 May 2021 12:40
'... in principle ARB should be ... a hedge against the worst of the downside ...'
I disagree. While the relationship is often a bit skewed short term, miners move in a geared fashion to the price of BTC both on the way up and on the way down. If BTC were to plunge back into a bear market it's almost certain that ARB and every other crypto miner would be obliterated for an extended period regardless of any operational improvements. With all miners expanding, the overall hash rate increasing and BTC difficulty getting steeper, miners need to spend loads of cash on expansion just to stand still, so by the time of the next bull run much of their operational gains will have been eroded and will have done little to underpin the SP.
Take a look at a 5 year monthly candle chart of RIOT, a miner which has been around since before the last bull run. You can see that despite a huge surge in 2017 it lost roughly 99% in the couple of years following the peak. Note also the striking similarity between their current SP action and that of 2017/18.
https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/RIOT?p=RIOT
If we go up again from here then miners like ARB will be a great place to be invested. However, in a bear market I'm pretty certain the best place to be will not be mining stocks but in cash. GLA